The first of today's two clubgowi subscriber newsletters .....
DC United goalkeeper Bill Hamid earned man of the match awards a couple of hours ago and with anyone else between the sticks, we might have found that 3-2 home win. San Jose dominated the second period and had 60% possession , 31 crosses (!), 83% passing accuracy and most importantly nine shots on target, of which Hamid saved seven. Earthquakes missed an "open" goal almost as time expired, the rebound was cleared off the line and their misery (and mine/ours) was complete.
There is a follow up newsletter today @ 13.00 UK time with a look at tonight's MLS fixtures.
FIFA World Cup: Third Place Playoff: Brazil- Netherlands
Cannot believe that either team wants this fixture, a humiliated Brazil would surely be happy to crawl away into a corner somewhere to lick their wounds, a desperately tired and frustrated Netherlands come into this on the back of extra time and only some 68 hours recovery time.
These matches are usually wide open affairs, it is the match where the pressure is off to a large degree and they are often very entertaining end to end encounters. No match since 1974 has gone "under" and under normal circumstances, it would be easy to see this develop into a shoot out. However, it is almost impossible to know the mood inside the Brazilian camp and how they might react to conceding yet again. They will get Thiago Silva back and surely Phil Scolari will do the right thing and heavily rotate his squad with so many of his team not in the right frame of mind to compete, it makes sense to go with those not so damaged by the midweek fiasco.
For the Netherlands, we will see a change or two also and Robin Van Persie who has looked exhausted, will surely be given the night off , with coach LVG perhaps mindful that he will need him in Manchester this season. That would mean a start for Klaas Jan-Huntelaar for whom this is likely to be a World Cup swansong (he will be closing in on 35yo by the time 2018 rolls around), he has performed well in limited game time and will be hungry and motivated if selected today and there are not many we can say that about in this encounter.
This is kind of no win for Brazil, if they batter Netherlands 4-0 it will not change the despair of a nation, if they edge it in a bland 1-0 defensive performance, it will just further anger a crowd in mourning. You could also argue that they have nothing more to lose and they would be best advised at least looking to entertain for 90 minutes.
1.5 units "over" 3 goals asian line/Sportmarket.
1 unit Klaas Jan-Huntelaar to score anytime 3.0 -3.20 general quote....there is up to 3.50 available in places.
Key in play betting stat: The last three 3rd and 4th place play off games to be all square at the break, have all had at least three second half goals. Actually all ten of those gaols came after the 52nd minute, five after the 79th, which makes sense in a close game at the end of a long and in this and most cases, very gruelling competition.
One player who took my eye with a 4th placed fast finish at the Alstom Open de France was Robert Karlsson, he posted a sixth at the Nordea masters last month with a closing round of 63 and is a former winner of the Dunhill Links Championship .
The Swedish player has had to overcome a lot of personal demons to come back to this point, you can read about them on this link, he looks in a much better place now and his golf is thriving, he is a quality golfer, formerly top money winner in Europe and a prolific winner.
Karlsson has shot 71 both days to end up exactly where McIlroy is and probably feels almost as frustrated as Rory, he is -6 for the first 12 holes , +6 for for the closing six and he could/should have been so much closer to the top of the leaderboard. However, I suspect he is in a much better mental place than his partner today and he certainly seems the more likely to shoot a consistent round, whereas there are few grey areas with McIlroy at present, for whom it is either brilliant or awful. The Swedish golfer played very solid golf over the weekend at last week's French Open and something similar could still get him in contention and I have seen worse 100-1 shots
1 unit Robert Karlsson to beat Rory McIlroy in R3, there is 2.50-2.75 as a general quote with the draw you lose option, a couple of companies have "draw no bet" and at 2.375-2.50 that is obviously better, but not as easy to find/bet.
Someone else that is firmly on my radar is Shane Lowry, you might remember, how could you forget (!), we backed him on Sunday at the BMW PGA Championship at 33-1 and at one stage he led by three strokes.............I do not need to tell you the rest !
If I do, he finished second, before that he had finished tied 15th at the Open de Espana and came into this event on the back of a similar showing, a 12th placed finish at the BMW International Open, that was his first real form since Wentworth and he looks primed to go close over the weekend. Ahead of final round at the PGA I wrote .....
I looked through the two ball quotes and felt Joost Luiten was very short priced against Shane Lowry, the dutch golfer has had a tough couple of weeks with a high finish at the Open de Espana last week, which was played in very windy conditions and then battling the elements at Wentworth, it could easily take a toll and this is not a course he has done well on previously, only making the cut once before and fading on the final day then. Lowry had his first decent week of the season last time out and is clearly starting to refind some form, he likes it here, was 12th last year and 4th in 2011, when he shot a final round 67. We discussed him on final day last year ...."Lowry also had a big Amateur career and actually won on Tour as a non professional which is very rare, taking the Irish Open in 2009, which meant he had to pass on the 500,000 euro prize money, he won the Portugal Masters last October and looks primed to go very close this afternoon. He is well suited to the closing holes here, playing 17 and 18 in -4 this week and in that aforementioned high finish two years ago, went birdie, birdie, eagle over the last three holes to shoot 67 and finish tied for fourth. He is good in contention, but loses interest in tournaments when off the pace, but that need not concern us today. Lowry is a bit obsessed with the US and desperate to prove himself there, he probably requires a top-three finish to move into the world’s top-60 and claim an automatic spot into the US Open when the rankings are announced on Monday, which would mean he doesn't need to pre qualify and is a huge additional incentive for him. He went 69-67 in 2011 and shot 69 yesterday, it's all a little bit of history repeating."
Good Luck.
There was more standard fayre in the follow up newsletter which I have just posted to subscribers, with previews of three of tonight's other football matches.
A massive week ahead, 13 newsletters planned, including the first of our Football League outright betting previews, to join clubgowi, follow this link.
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