France Ligue 2: Nancy-Creteil
A point will take Nancy into the top three and the promotion spots, a win into second and a four goal victory will see them replace Brest at the top of the table, so a huge amount for them to play for. I was very keen on Nancy over the second half of last season as many of you will probably recall and was especially taken with Jeff Louis (pictured) who looked far too good for Ligue 2 and found his way to Standard Liege in the summer, who probably see him as a good investment and a player they will turn a profit on.
Having come so close to promotion last time round and losing Louis, I was not quite sure how this season would pan out for them, so left them alone through the early games, but we did discuss briefly their last home start against Le Havre ....
Two inform sides who are unbeaten in six and five starts respectively. We have talked a lot about the visitors already this season and previews from two recent games, including their 1-0 defeat of Arles last time out, are reproduced below the "good luck" signoff.
A win for either team would take them level on points with Brest and Troyes in the promotion places, just two adrift of leader Dijon, many Ligue 2 viewers would have named that trio as the three stronger teams in the division pre season and possible these as the next two and for once, we have the cream rising to the top early and we could be in for a classic L2 campaign. Nancy and Brest have drawn a lot of games, but I suspect it will be the teams who are bravest in the h2h "six pointers" who will ultimately prevail and I hope we will see both go for it tonight. Last five meetings have seen both teams score in each, with four going "over" and I hope to see a similar level of entertainment tonight. Despite getting the points, HAC rode their luck at times at home to Angers, who enjoyed great success down both flanks and enjoyed little luck in front of goal.
HAC get both Leroy and Ikoko back today, but are without three goal striker Moussa Sao and central defender Steven Fortes and that leaves them a little more vulnerable through the centre and if Nancy have as much joy out wide as Angers, that will be especially dangerous and short of options upfront, aside from top scorer Mickael Le Bihan,but Bonnet, Leroy and Gamboa are usually good for 5-6 each per year and only have one between them, so are overdue . Nancy have won the last seven home meetings, including a 2-1 win here in the cup earlier this season and if they were to win, I would expect a similar scoreline.Both to score and best value for me at these odds, is with the "over".
That did indeed play out perfectly, with a repeat of the 2-1 scoreline and they followed up with a fine 4-1 road win at Niort last weekend, Nancy are on an eight match unbetaen run and it is hard to pick too many holes in their recent form, although if I tried and of course I am going to, it would be that they have kept just a single clean sheet in that sequence and given the way that Creteil play (more shortly) and the fact the three h2h meetings last season ended in score draws 1-1, 2-2 and 3-3 , it is easy to make a case for BTS as a starting point.
We discussed Creteil a LOT last month and did quite well taking "overs" in their games, although we came up short in the last of those previews, which you can read at the foot of the email. However, it did end 1-1 and they have since lost 2-1 at home to Souchaux, so both teams have now scored in 15 of Creteil's last 17 starts.
Hosts are without suspended central defender Joel Sami, who is amongst the very first names on the team sheet, the only game he has missed this season was a 2-2 draw with Auxerre ( can you see where I am going with this ?) and he only missed two last season, which included a 3-2 home loss to Tours.
The visitors are missing defensive midfielder Ibrahima Seck, he has sat out ten games over the last two seasons through which Creteil have scored an average of 1.5 goals and conceded 1.4 , but that is more or less what they do anyway.
I feel ( no prizes for guessing) that both will score, but offensively Nancy look good and the win is very valuable to them , especially with a trip to promotion rivals Troyes immediately after the international break. However, something like 2-2 would not surprise me and I will opt for 1.5 units "over" 2.75 goals 2.26 asian line/Sportmarket.
I have seen 3.75-4.0 for Creteil to score over 1.5 goals something they did on both visits last season (one friendly) and that makes some appeal given that Nancy rarely keep a clean sheet.
Take care if betting in running and this is all square at the break, Nancy have drawn all three home starts in which they were level at HT, Creteil have drawn all four on the road when level after 45 minutes. Last season Nancy went on to draw 60% ( 9 from 15) of all games when level at the break.
I must admit, this 2-2 draw keeps call me !
Nancy : Nardi, Ndy Assembe, Cuffaut, Lenglet, Diagne, Muratori, Amadou, Lusamba, Cétout, Iglesias, Walter, Karaboué, Coulibaly, Dalé, Dembélé, Hadji.
Créteil : Kerboriou, Merville - Augusto, Diarrassouba, Diedhiou C., Ilunga, Montaroup - Dabo, Dias, Genest, Lafon, Lesage, Ndoye - Andriatsima, Essombé, Piquionne.
Good Luck.
Orleans- Creteil (written 24/10)
Most of you will know by now that if we are going to be looking for goals, then Creteil are going to feature somewhere along the line, our preview for their last road game, a trip to Angers three weeks ago, set out the reasons ......
Creteil have served us well in recent weeks, going "over" in 3 from 3. We spoke about the way they play and that they had strikers overdue goals, ahead of their recnt 2-2 draw with Clermont .....
Hosts play a very open style and they have both scored and conceded in 9 of their last 10 starts. They are stronger in midfield tonight with the return of Cheikh Ndoye and Ibrahima Seck and will surely see this as a very good opportunity to get back to winning ways after drawing their last four starts, they have not lost at home in six months (10 starts all comps) and have quickly established themselves as a solid Ligue 2 team, following promotion in 2012-13. I feel they have a few more goals to come, striker Faneva Andriatsima has scored 24 goals over the last two seasons , but hasn't got off the mark yet, likewise Marcel Essombé is still waiting for his first goal and they will come sooner rather than later.
Ahead of their trip to Dijon a few days later ....
Team news wise, it is as you were, with one exception, ever present left back Aurelien Montaroup is suspended and replaced by Augusto, who has not played since last May and might be a little match "rusty", Faneva Andriatsima (see above) did score at the weekend and as we know, most strikers tend to be streaky and after a dry spell, they tend to go on a bit of a tear up and we can keep an eye on him in the next week or two.
That ended 2-1 with Andriatsima scoring again and ahead of their home game with Ajaccio last Friday, my notes included....
No surprises here, my preview of Creteil's midweek match is below, they again obliged by going "over" and they have now both scored and conceded in 11 of their last 12. They can only really play one way, will look for the win and will leave gaps at the back. Today they get midfielder Jean-Michel Lesage back for the first time in five weeks, he has three goals in as many starts this season and has averaged 9 goals over each of the last four season and gives them a greatly increased offensive threat. I was very pleased with my thoughts on Faneva Andriatsima (see below) and he now has two in two and this is a team with a big offensive threat.....and they are not afraid to use it !
Ajaccio arrive without experienced central defender and captain Cedric Kanté who was brought in over the summer to lead the backline and his absence looks key. They have scored an average of 1.25 goals in their last 12 road games and should be up to at least one tonight, both to score .....2-1/1-2/2-2.
It actually finished 3-2 , again Andriatsima scored and was joined by Essombé ( see above) and maybe it is now his turn to run in a few. They have now scored and conceded in 12 of 13 starts and have scored in their last 21 (!) away starts, two or more in 8 of 13. They are totally unlike any other Ligue 2 team and when they visit, teams have huge problems adapting to their open style, as they see it all too rarely. Oddsmakers seem unable to accept this and price their games up vaguely similar to most others in this tightest of leagues, but that is simply not correct.
These two played out a 2-2 draw here in March and a repeat would certainly not surprise. The visitors arrive without a recognised right back with Marvin Esor suspended and the brilliantly named Boris Mahon de Monaghan (good luck to supporters making up a song about him) injured. Goals !
Surprisingly Creteil did not score there, but they were kind enough to concede three goals instead, which served just as well and normal service returned last week, with a 1-1 draw at home to Troyes, so BTS in 13 of 15 Creteil starts, in addition to the away scoring stats outlined above. The visitors still have the right back issue, although according to their website Marvin Esor was left out of the squad by choice, midfielder Jean -Michel Lesage and striker Essombé (see above) miss out, but this is an attack minded team with offensive options. Orleans are at full strength today and will surely be looking for maximum points ahead of a trip to a strong Troyes team next week and sitting just three points above the drop zone. These two last met in National the season before last with the two matches producing 10 goals and I favour this to follow suit.
1.5 units "over" 2.5 goals 2.17 asian line/Sportmarket.
Orleans : Renault, Balijon, Sidibé, Abdoulaye, Ponroy, Brillault, Delonglée, Loriot, Ligoule, Mendy, Puyo, Louisy-Daniel, Maah, Benmeziane, Glombard, Arnaud.
Creteil: Kerboriou, Merville, Lafon, Di Bartolomeo, Diedhiou C., Ilunga, Montaroup, Dabo, Dias, Genest, Ndoye, Sangaré, Seck, Tribeau, Andriatsima, Piquionne.
