Premier League : Swansea City- Liverpool

 

No pressure on the Swans at all, they look booked for an 8th-10th placed finish and can relax and play their natural game, but perhaps that will also mean they will struggle to match the intensity of the visitors for whom this is huge. Liverpool can move to within two points of fourth, stay in touch with the Gunners in third and City in second for that matter and open up a four point lead over Tottenham and Southampton, in other words it is worth gambling all out for the three points.The Reds have scored a lot of goalls against the Swans, 17 in their last five meetings, although four of those have come at Anfield and are the best team in the EPL in 2015, in terms of points won. We previewed their last road game a 2-0 win at Southampton last month, which is reproduced below in full, they won that 2-0 and have since followed up with home league wins over Manchester City and Burnley, they are priced similarly today, which given that their very solid league form has continued and few would argue that City are a better team than Saints and Swnsea have less to play for, doesn't really make a lot of sense. Pool have had a gruelling schedule, but come into this on the back of an eight day break, so should be their freshest for some time. Away win . 1.5 units Liverpool -0.5 ball 2.04 asian line.Sportmarket.

 

Premier League: Southampton- Liverpool  (written 22/02)

We opposed Liverpool on Thursday in the Europa League, part of the reason for doing so was this game, which is huge in terms of the race for a top 4 place. For a long while we looked like collecting there, but a late and much discussed Liverpool winner saw them edge home and our stakes returned. The Reds are proving very tough to beat, have not lost inside 90 minutes in 17 starts and are still involved in three competitions. Ahead of the cup replay with Bolton Wanderers earlier this month I discussed how the options for boss Brendan Rodgers were greatly increased and key players were at the top of their game .....

All the FA Cup betting criteria that we gave to West Ham United, Stoke City, Sunderland etc recently applies equally to Liverpool, this competition offers a genuine chance of some silverware and whilst getting into the top four would still be a target and they have the small matter of the Merseyside derby game at the weekend, they have to keep all their options open for now and they will be motivated to win this and maybe with the big game at the weekend, to get this done quickly if at all possible. They got an incredible boost last weekend with the return of Daniel Sturridge, who welcomed his return with a goal after coming off the bench, having been absent since August, it only took 12 minutes and he had other chances either side of the goal and suddenly things look so much brighter for Liverpool. Raheem Sterling and Philippe Coutinho are near the top of their game, Coutinho has settled now , Liverpool believe he is "world class" and have given him a newly extended, five year + contract this week, Sturridge's comeback was greeted like the return of the prodigal son and 2015 once again offers much promise.

Saints have had an incredible season, way beyond expectations, but the goals have dried up and they have not scored in over 250 minutes at home and not at all here on the South Coast since New year's Day, they have not played for 11 days since the last of these matches at St Mary's a 0-0 draw with West Ham United, ahead of which I wrote .....

The Hammers have taken points from their only two EPL visits to St Mary's and buoyed by their performance in a  1-1 draw with Manchester United  at the weekend, although disappointed it was not all three, they can again come away with at least one more this evening. Ahead of the match on Sunday I wrote ...

A really interesting game, but it would be great to see team news first, goals seem likely, but I feel the hosts will get their share, I would suggest 1.25 units West Ham United +0.25 ball 2.33 asian line/Sportmarket, if either Reid or Jenkinson play, I would up that stake a little.

 

Jenkinson did play and they look set to go with a largely similar line up against the Saints, although there is a chance that Carroll might see a little action. For the hosts,the goals have dried up a little, they miss the incredible work rate of Shane Long up front and defensively are without a recognised left back with Ryan Bertrand and Matt Targett out, with Toby Alderweireld missing in central defence, that looks tough against the Hammers, who play with plenty of width and who have scored an EPL high 14 headed goals this season and that threat is there regardless of whether Carroll plays or not. Also , Morgan Schneiderlin will face a late test, Saints are 4-1-9 without the defensive midfielder since returning to the top flight. If he misses out too, that will be the icing on the cake for United. 

Saints have won just one of seven home starts when they have conceded and I cannot see this beat up backline keeping the Hammers out for 90 minutes.
 

The hosts could not find a breakthrough goal, despite the Hammers playing for 30 minutes with ten men, after their keeper was dismissed and striker Graziano Pelle has now not scored in eight. Saints are not the surprise package they were early season, everyone has played them now and know what to expect, the supply to Pelle has been cut off and I can see Coutinho, Sterling and Sturridge giving the home side a lot of problems on the break. Saints have not won in six home starts when their opponent scores and I do not see the Reds coming up short in that department in a game where the onus is on the hosts to take the game to the visitors. Hosts are a little better off defensively, but Toby Alderweireld and Ryan Bertrand (see above) are still sidelined. X2 game for me.