Yesterday's email is reproduced in full below, I only previewed one match, it was a winner, but the result doesn't matter, when you "know" that long term you will win, it takes a lot of the stress out of day to day betting and you tend not to sweat individual results too much. The main reason(s) to post it on here are two fold, firstly, that it highlights the "late" play approach I discussed in the post below, an hour before kick off the selection was trading at 2.17 ten "clicks" higher than in the morning, so no reason why every reader could not easily have got on at best price ( or better !!). There were three goals inside 51 minutes btw, four before the hour mark.

Secondly, how once again the oddsmakers just didn't understand the information that had available, or what was playing out before their eyes. Team news is all well and good, but if you cannot interpret that information, what use is it ? Read both previews below and you will see what I mean, this was also something I touched upon in another recent article.

Monday March 18th

Just the one match to preview today and the midweek is a little quiet because of the international fixtures scheduled for the weekend. However, we have plenty of games tomorrow and I will have two emails, the first will be at 10.00 UK time and is the standard email, which will probably contain 2-3 previews, the second will be sent at 18.45-19.00 tomorrow and will take a look at the lower / non league games being played Tuesday night, by this time I should know what condition most of the pitches are in ( a huge amount of rain has fallen in the UK recently) and have some confirmed team news. I will also try to outline some potential "in play" positions for these games. This will effectively be the Wednesday email, as my next newsletter after this will be on Thursday at 10.00 when I will also have news of what, at the moment, looks the first maximum selection of 2013, which is scheduled for the weekend.

So there is no misunderstanding....the email schedule for the next few days is.... Tuesday 10.00, Tuesday 18.45, Thursday 10.00.

Ligue 2 : Dijon- Nantes

I am very keen on the "over" in this game. I expect an open contest, both teams look exposed in key areas and the odds are MUCH better than my own estimations.

Dijon are 8 points off the promotion pace and really can only look for a maximum return this evening, we have discussed them several times in recent weeks and you probably know that they have not overly impressed me. Lens were all over them here a few weeks back and could have scored any number of goals, there is a chance that Nantes could do likewise, especially once this get's stretched, as it surely will, once the first goal comes. Hosts are without three central defenders in William Rémy,Samuel Souprayen and Steven Paulle, they have averaged 15 appearances between them and whilst the first two have now been out for some time, the situation is difficult as they only have two recognised centrebacks in their squad. The first, Zakaria Diallo (1-0-0),  has made just four starts in the last two seasons, games in which Dijon have conceded 12 goals ( three or more in three), including at Angers last week, the other, Ousseynou Cissé (19-0-0) is still only 21 years old.

Nantes have no real pressure on them looking at the league table, sitting in second place with a six point advantage over Caen who are currently in fourth, however, they have still to visit the Normandy side and have a very tough stretch of games, with four of their next six on the road and their only home start in the next five and a half weeks ( !), is a visit from leaders Monaco. They are also missing two key players tonight in striker Filip Djordjevic (25-16-1) and left/centre back Gabriel Cichero (25-2-1), we spoke about Djordjevic recently when he missed the trip to Lens, that preview is reproduced at the foot of this email. They won that 2-1 and have taken maximum points from all three starts he has missed this season, so I have no concern about Nantes being able to get on the scoresheet without the prolific Serbian. However, I am less convinced that they will keep a cleansheet without Cichero, he has been playing mainly in central defence, as they have more options on the left and Nantes have looked vunerable at the back on the three occasions he has missed out, which included a 3-1 loss to basement club Gazelec. All three goals for GFCO in that game came from crosses or long balls played through the middle, including two from uncleared set piece situations, this is something that Dijon can exploit, they have good delivery from dead balls, especially from Thomas Guerbert. Both to score and both likely to look for the win. 1.5 units "over" 2.25 goals 2.07 asian line/ Ibramarket.

Dijon: Reynet, Tchagouni – Cissé, Marié, Bamba, Varrault, Diallo-Bérenguer, Mulumba, Paye, Guerbert, Baradji, Mollet, Philippoteaux-Jovial, Tavares.

Nantes:Riou, Zelazny,Cissokho, Djellabi, Djilobodji, Madouni, Veigneau,Bessat, Deaux, Eudeline, Touré, Trébel, Veretout, Aristeguieta, Gakpe, Pancrate

Good Luck.

Sent Monday March 4th

Ligue 2 : Lens- Nantes

I have been a fan of Lens under Eric Sikora and they are clearly much improved, but they now seem a long way off the top three (12 points) and even if they were to win this evening, that nine point gap would still seem awfully tough to close with just 11 rounds to play and more importantly eight teams still above them. They have conceded a little too freely in their last three starts, allowing eight goals against them and their focus from now on in, might be their domestic cup quarter final, where they have a home tie and building for next season, in what seems sure to be a weaker Ligue 2.They will be a big player next year, especially with a little investment in the Summer. Hosts played last Wednesday against Epinal in the cup, they took that very seriously and the squad tonight is largely unchanged, apart from midfielder Alexandre Coeff (26-1-1) and striker Yoann Touzghar (20-8-1), who picked up injuries and miss out tonight, Touzghar is their top striker, Coeff has not missed a game all season, but there was one where he only managed 19 minutes and that was a 3-1 home defeat to Angers, these are obviously big losses.

Nantes are second in the table , ahead of both Caen and Guingamp on goal difference, with Angers just two points further back, a point tonight would be valuable, but three would be a very nice buffer, they host Gazelec this weekend and coach Michel Der Zakarian is targeting a win in each, as his side then face a daunting trio of matches. They will be without their own top scorer in Filip Djordjevic ( 24-15-1) , he was on fire early season, but they have become less reliant on his goals in recent months, which is just as well, as he has only scored twice since early November and it is noteworthy that they won both games he has missed this season. Obviously , I would prefer that he played, but his loss is mirrored by Touzghar's absence and in midfield the visitors look much stronger this evening. I cannot really see them losing this.1.5 units Nantes level ball 2.23 asian line/ Ibramarket.

Edit: I was going to keep stakes much smaller today, but odds have now got too big on Nantes and I have had to push up stakes, I am sure the movement is because Djordjevic is missing, but I have explained all that above and it is not such a big concern for me and my policy ( betting more at bigger odds) is good long term for us, hopefully short term too !

Lens: Samuel Atrous, Rudy Riou ; Zakarya Bergdich, Nicolas Saint-Ruf, Alassane Touré, Alaeddine Yahia ; Ludovic Baal, Jérémie Bela, Wylan Cyprien, Yohan Démont, Jérôme Le Moigne, Lalaina Nomenjanahary, Ange-Freddy Plumain, Samba Sow, Pierrick Valdivia ; Dème N'Diaye.

Nantes: Riou, Zelazny,Alhadhur, Cichero, Cissokho, Djellabi, Djilobodji, Madouni, Veigneau,Bessat, Deaux, Eudeline, Pancrate, Trébel, Veretout,Aristeguieta, Gakpe.