France: Coupe de la Ligue:
Long term readers with good memories will probably already have an inkling about which way I am leaning with these games !
We "milked" the overs in the first round games and picked up some 11-12 points profit on three matches.
I provided some background notes ahead of those games detailing how these early round league cup games had played out in recent seasons .....
I am going to touch briefly on the league cup games in France in this email, we have done very well with these in the past and early rounds usually produce goals and home field advantage is questionable . Last year, ahead of the second round of games, which this season will take place later this month I wrote ............These midweek league cup matches have been good to play in recent years and this round has been especially interesting. They have tended to be open encounters, with the last three seasons producing just two draws from 18 matches( 11.11%), and over the last two seasons, 9 of 12 have resulted in away wins, with 58% going "over".
That round of six matches saw five go "over" at an average of 3.17 goals and the ten 3rd round fixtures saw eight with three or more goals and six producing at least four.
The more eagle eyed of you out there will have noticed that we are playing R1 tonight ! Last season nine out of ten of these produced at least two goals and in the last three seasons, 33 opening round fixtures have seen only 11 end in home wins inside 90 minutes, so 33% (odds 3.0) and every single home team this evening is priced way below that and these stats provide a very solid STARTING POINT for looking at tonight's fixtures.
Eight of the 11 opening round games went "over" and whilst R2 was nowhere near as prolific and we did not do as well, five of the six ties produced at least two goals and the fact remains that these fixtures tend to be far more open than normal Ligue 2 (which most early stage teams are) games and we can expect that trend to continue and have the odds to make it profitable to follow them this evening.
Over the last four seasons, 19 of the 40 third round matches have produced four or more goals, that is 47.5%, as today's three games are priced at circa 4.50 (22.22%) you could make a good case for all of those offering value on that stat alone, but if nothing else, it does highlight the really open nature of these games in general terms. Last year, eight of the ten went "over" and the round averaged 3.7 goals per game.
I am not overly worried about team news, we can expect teams playing this midweek to rotate, at least a little and all to play with the weekend fixtures in mind............
The notes above were written before this round of games started.
Dijon- Reims
Just one point from three starts has seen Dijon lose their healthy lead at the top of Ligue 2, they are still in first place, but only on goal difference, with three teams tied on 23 points and having already blown good promotion chances in recent seasons, they will be very focused on the visit from Brest on Saturday afternoon. Of course, at home they cannot let this go without a fight and they could do with a bit of a confidence boost and have named an offensive looking squad, so I trust they will be going for it this evening.
Reims have been finding goals very hard to come by recently, but five of their last six starts have been against top 8 teams, including all of the top 4 and they will surely notice and welcome the dip in quality of opposition tonight. We discussed their home game with Monaco at the weekend, which they kindly lost 1-0 .....
Reims have scored just once in four starts and are struggling creatively and are not helped in that regard today with the absence of several players, however, it is perhaps defensively that they are harder hit. Defensive midfielder Jaba Kankava and right back Aissa Mandi miss out, the defender has missed seven starts in 2015, through which Reims are 1-1-5 and the only start both missed was a 1-0 home loss to Caen last weekend. The visitors could have been out of sight at the break in that game, they caused Reims all kinds of problems from dead ball situations and the hosts seemed incapable of clearing any crosses into the box and Monaco will surely have taken note of that, all three of those goals they scored against Montpellier and one versus Guingamp ( who I always consider strong aerially) came either directly or indirectly from crosses/corners .
That game was a far more open encounter than expected and Reims had chances, but looked very vulnerable on the break and guess how the goal came ? No prizes, cross into the box and header, with two defenders stood watching the goalscorer and Monaco also hit the woodwork with another later in the game , guess that Dijon were taking notes and will be looking to take advantage of the visitors weaknesses, which are plain for all to see right now. In addition to Kankava ( see above) Reims are also without key central midfielder Antoine Devaux (pictured), they have kept just 2/13 clean sheets in his absence, conceding at the rate of 1.85 goals per game and giving up at least three in five of those.
1.5 units "over" 2.5 goals 2.33 asian line/Sportmarket.
Dijon : Basilio, Reynet – Andonian, Bamba, Jullien, Paulle, Souquet – Amalfitano, Gastien, Marié, Maury, Sammaritano – Bela, Diony, Rivière, Saïd, Tavares, Thiam.
Reims : Agassa, Placide – Signorino, Tacalfred, Traoré, Turan, Weber – Bourillon, Bulot, Fortes, Mfulu, Oniangue, Peuget, Rigonato – Charbonnier, De Préville, Kyei, Ngog, Siebatcheu.
Good Luck.
