Championship: Derby County- QPR
I was not terribly impressed by Rangers on Friday night, they did hit the woodwork twice, but neither attempt look like it was going in, a bit of a looping head dipped at the last moment and caught the top of the bar, a shot that looked to be going wide just clipped the outside of the post, at least that is how I saw things through my rose tinted ( red and white ?) glasses ! Those aside, they created nothing at all, their build up play was poor and to be honest, a little clueless at times with no game plan and very little passion. I do not like highlighting coaches in trouble, but have now done it twice in this email and if Chris Ramsey is still in charge at Christmas, he will have done well and I will be surprised. The amazing thing is that QPR are the third worst passing team in the Championship, it is incredble as they play so many aimless sideways balls, so my instinct would be that those stats should be "good" and that they are bad, has got a lot of alarm bells ringing in my head !. Defender Clint Hill was one of the few to show any passion, but even as he left the field limping with a knock, I heard one wag say "that was the fastest he had moved all night", he is missing tonight and there are very few positives in this team right now. Rangers have conceded 13 goals in the last six matches Hill has sat out, including six in the last two on the road and this match has the potential to get ugly !
We have spoken a lot about County this month and notes from their last home start, a 4-2 defeat of Woverhampton Wanderers, are reproduced under the "good luck" sign off. After that game I wrote "that they looked very good at times, but I would argue nowhere near their peak and it is a little scary to think of the offensive threat they pose and the damage they could and will cause, once they really hit their stride."
Ahead of their weekend home game versus a poor Rotherham United I said .........
They have subsequently collected four points from road trips to Blackurn and Huddersfield and will be pleased with that return which takes their unbeaten run to eight games and them up to fifth in the table and with nothing but top two ( hopefully first place) in their sights. Anything close to the level they showed versus Wolves will see them beat the Millers who are set for a season long battle against relegation.
They won that 3-0 and it could easily have been five or six goals and afterwards boss Paul Clement said:"I am learning about my players all the time. "They are showing so many different qualities now, whether it be the team spirit or dealing with different styles of football."The momentum is really building and we are enjoying the way we are playing and we are full of confidence.
They will be without George Thorne tonight after he picked up a fifth yellow card, but this is a very strong squad, highlighted by Bryson, Hendrick and Bent coming off the bench at the weekend and you would struggle to find another second tier team for whom that trio would not all start. If Rangers play like they did on Friday and judging by comments on their forums that was a typical recent performance and County play even close to their usual standard, the visitors "cannot" win this. To get a result, they need to greatly improve and County have an off night and it is hard to see either happening right now.
1.5 units Derby County -1 ball 2.26 asian line/Sportmarket.
Good Luck.
Championship: Derby County- Wolverhampton Wanderers (written October 18th)
I was very bullish about the chances of Derby County winning the Championship in my midweek long term update .....
I have seen a lot of Championship football in the last 15 months , maybe 30-32 games live last season and 7-8 this, the best live performance was from Derby County at Griffin Park last season, they lost a pulsating match 2-1, but for the first 35 minutes they were totally unplayable and it was hard to fathom how they tailed off so badly at the end of last season. Best team I have seen this season.......Derby County !
Ok, they did not beat much, Brentford were poor, but County were very good and even better than I realised at the time, as I spent a lot of the match with my head in my hands ! However, I bit the bullet and forced myself to watch extended highlights of that this week and they played some very nice football and if there is a better team/squad in the Championship, I would be majorly surprised. Middlesbrough are favourites and have three points on the Rams at present, but the 2.50 /8.0 differential in price is Crazy with a capital C.
Looking at the last two seasons, County made a very similar start to this year (struggled to win at home) in both, in 13/14 only champions Leicester City were possibly better and they completely outplayed QPR in the playoff final, attacked for 90 minutes and conceded a goal in injury time which still makes me just a little angry every time I think about it ! Last season they were top of the Championship at the end of February with a two point lead over Boro and five clear of third, before their fall from grace.
They shoud have gone up both years and "blew it" I would suggest that they are at least as strong this time round, the Championship might well be weaker and that this will be third time lucky ! They are a big club who can attract 30,000 crowds week in, week out and my only concern pre season was how new head coach Paul Clement who has spent his coaching career either at a top academy or as #2 to Carlo Ancelotti at Chelsea, Real Madrid and PSG (nothing wrong with that CV !), would adapt to the Championship and being the boss ! He looks comfortable in the role and it might be a case of the ideal club at the perfect time.
The board have allowed him to spend, Tom Ince and Darren Bent made loan deal permanent, Chris Baird, Andreas Weimannm Jason Shackell, Jacob Butterfield and Bradley Johnson (pictured) were also added to what was already a strong squad and this is a team you could take 5-6 players out of the starting line up without weakening it. Shackell and Keogh looks as solid a central defensive partnership as there is anywhere and George Thorne who missed most of last season after being brought in as the missing link in the holding role is now fit to sit in front of them, Chris Martin and Bent are both deadly and will score a hatful of goals at this level and I cannot tell how impressed I was by Ince who is being given a very free role and especially Bradley Johnson, I was amazed that Norwich City let him go, he was a colussus for them last season and their POTY.
County are very well suited to playing on the road and will win a lot of away games where they break with great pace, they just need to start turning Pride Park into more of a fortress, they made a start with the defeat of Brentford and have a chance to build some home momentum with Wolves the visitors this weekend, after demolishing them 5-0 here last season in what was almost the prefect Championship performance. I think that they will be promoted and I do not see that they are any weaker than Middlesbrough or should be bigger odds than Boro to take the title. I have had a serious bet !
I do not have a lot to add to that (it was only written three days ago!) , they have no new problems today and whilst they have been more reliable on the road this season and early in each of their last three campiagns, they did find some form at Pride Park (iPro Stadium just seems wrong !) around this time of year in each of the previous two, showed signs that was going to be the case again versus the mighty Bees last time out and put five past Wolves here eleven months ago. My thinking is that the visitors are weaker this seaon, County stronger and the Rams should win this, football is never that simple and chances of winning the title are not going to rest on a win today, but I suspect in six weeks time we would be asked to give up at least a quarter goal more in this match up, so ....
1.5 units Derby County -0.75 ball 2.06 asian line/Sportmarket.
