We have already had a full round of games in Japan this "morning" and you can read the clubgowi subscriber notes for those fixtures below, the previews are a little shorter than usual for J-League, but they still have value as a sample of what the service provides. They did produce a small profit, but that is not really the issue or point of posting and all the posts on the website are only meant as clubgowi newsletter samples. I will also put up a preview of one of today's English matches shortly .
Penultimate round and there are a lot of "friendly" matches this round, with both teams having nothing left to play for, that should result in goals, players are tired and motivation, especially in the second half of games, will be hard to come by, although teams will be looking to provide some entertainment. Last four seasons have seen an avergae of 5.67 games on this day go "over" and there has usually been more at stake, so, surely most of the non crucial games today should oblige !
Last week I spoke about who needed what in terms of the overall table and Stage 2 and also, the dip in number of home wins ...........
Just three regular season rounds left to play in Japan. Things are a little complicated in that we have two leagues to consider, stage 2 covering the second series of 17 matches and also the overall table !
We discussed the fomat back in July and maybe now is a good time to reproduce those notes .........
Format: This is the second round of Stage 2, the two stage winners ( Urawa Reds won the first) will get a home berth in the first round of the playoffs, whoever has the most points of those two over the two stages is the top seed, and thus will play all of its playoff games at home. The teams with the second and third most points over the full season also qualify for the playoffs, making a total of four teams. The stage winner with the most points plays against the third-place finisher and the stage winner with fewest points plays the second-place finisher. Once decided, the playoff winner will face the team with the most points over the entire year, in a home-and-away Championship Series.
Which is about as clear as mud !
I am loathe to say too much as the post season format has already been changed once and the eagle eyed amongst you will probably realise that there is a very good (big odds on) chance that at least one team will make one or more criteria, in which case the playoffs will be shortened, for example, if Urawa also has the most points over the full season, they qualify directly for the Championship Series, completely bypassing the playoffs.
I thought that it was a terrible move to mess with the format to begin with, but now I am changing my mind and if they just tweak the post season arrangements for next season it will be an improvement I feel. It will enable teams competing in the AFC Champions League, where they have been at a big disadvantage, to compete both domestically and internatiuonally and we have seen immediate signs of that with two teams in the last eight of the CL.
Urawa will want to keep winning and secure the overall win as soon as possible and both stages carry different titles and prize money. The situation at the foot of the table is unchanged , with the bottom three over the full season being relegated. We can look again at these changes a little later in the season and hopefully, use them to our advantage, but I think they matter little for now and all teams should be trying their best and I have rarely seen any examples of teams not doing so in J-league in any case.
Stage 2 leaders are Sanfrecce Hiroshima and Kashima Antlers who are tied on 31 points six clear of the pack and it looks to be between those two. Neither can pass the total of 41 points that Urawa collected en route to winning Stage 2.
The outright table sees Sanfrecce and Urawa Reds tied on 65 points and again, they are six clear (of FC Tokyo) and it looks to be between that duo. Bottom three are discussed later.
Lots to play for, especially at the top of the table(s) !
I have spoken many times in previous years about how well J-League games lend themselves to stats and whilst we have not delved too much into them this season, that was because I was unsure what influence the new format would bring, it appears not much, at least in terms of goals . This year we have seen an average of 2.655 goals, with 1.075 coming before the break, 1,58 in the second half, which is almost an identikit football match ! However, we did touch upon the dip in number of home wins earlier this year and whilst those numbers picked up a bit early through Stage 2, only to about first stage levels and the full season is running at sub 38% ( 37.99), average for the previous five seasons was 42.88% , so we have lost almost 5%, which equates to roughly 15 games over the full season which is quite a lot. That is encouraging for this round, with my main selections having an away bias.
I am personally not overly concerned with team news at this stage of the season, of course, if a team is missing five starters, or their keeper and two central defenders or both top strikers it is a little different, but one of two is usually not as important and can be more than overcome by motivation and desire.
A loss for Kashima Antlers last round means that Sanfrecce Hiroshima would seal Stage 2 with a win on Saturday and were they to follow up next week, also take the overall title, pipping Urawa Reds. However, teams do have a recent history of blowing the title late in the season and Sanfrecce have the small matter of a trip to defending champions Gamba Osaka, who are battling toe to toe with FC Tokyo for third spot overall and a post season place . So, it is the matches featuring Kashima, Urawa, Gamba and FC Tokyo where there is something at stake, the relegation issue is all but decided, but Yamaga might view things differently.
Kashima Antlers- Yokohama F.Marinos
Antlers will be buoyed by their Nabisco Cup win over Gamba last weekend and can play without fear now I guess, they are three points behind Sanfreece in the race for the Stage 2 title and can only try and take six points and hope that Hiroshima slip up twice and drop four points, the current leaders could lose today and that would increase pressure on them next week and a chance is a chance, so we can expect Kashima to go all out for the win. Yokohama have been in fantastic form in recent weeks and have not lost in 12 starts in all competitions, winning 8 of 10 in J-League. they must be kicking themselves that they did not hit form sooner, esepcially as their last defeat was at home to basement club Shimizu ! They are going to fall short in the race for top 3 in the overall table and would need to win both remaining games and Sanfrecce lose both , along with a 13 goal swing to take Stage 2 ! That is too far fetched, but they would go above Antlers with a win and they will be hosting a relegated team next, so who knows and as I already said, any chance is better than none. So two teams, surely both going all out for the win and hoping that Gamba beat Sanfrecce heavily ! Last four h2h meetings here in Kashima have been split, with two wins each....... an nteresting game.
I see this a little closer than oddsmakers and I wonder how Antlers might react if news from Osaka favoured Hiroshima, perhaps feeling that they blew the title that was theirs for the taking a few weeks ago. Marinos are on the crest of a wave and might just be more up for this regardless of what happens elsewhere and might even view second spot as something to aim for, which I doubt Antlers do !
1 unit Yokohama F.Marinos to win (-0.5 ball) 3.40-3.50 general quote.
Vissel Kobe- Matsumoto Yamaga
This is remarkably similar to Kobe's last game, when they hosted
Montedio Yamagata and I wrote .....
I find it hard to believe that Kobe are not yet safe, they look better than most of the bottom half of the table teams and certainly a class above Montedio, whom I highlighted as in trouble ahead on Matchday 1, way back in March ....
Speaking of promoted teams, Montedio Yamagata had a glorious end to last season winning the playoffs and reaching the Emperor's Cup final, but I am not prepared to buy into it , not yet anyway, they finished last season in 6th place, some 37 points adrift of title winners Shonan Bellmare, 19 behind the runner up. Last year I warned you very early on about Tokushima Vortis.....I usually ignore newly promoted J-League teams for a month or so, but I am happy to oppose newcomers Tokushima today, they made it into the top flight after finishing 4th in J-L2 and were 20 points behind leaders Gamba Osaka and five teams ( down to 9th) finished within a win ( 3 points) of Vortis. They also lost eight times at home last season and the only team to be promoted with a similar record in recent seasons was Oita Trinita in 2012 and their top flight campaign ended in tears ( 2-8-24), with relegation almost assured with three months left to play and to be honest, I fear similarly for Vortis.
To be honest, you can make a case for Yamagata potentially being worse than Vortis, although they will surely have a better season and they also lost 8 home starts in J2, they have not really strengthened and will have to hit the ground running to avoid a season long battle to avoid relegation.
To be honest, they have done well to still have achance of survival with three rounds to go, but it is miniscule and a minimum requirement is that they will all three and Kobe lose all of theirs. That kind of dictates how this will play out and Kobe should be able to take advantage of the visitors need to gamble. The home side have not won in the league for some time, but have a couple of recent cup wins to their name and were very focused on their Nabisco Cup games with Antlers, odds seem short given that league form, but I know who is the stronger team and I keep thinking about how this is likely to play out and I cannot really see it ending any other way than a two + goal home win.
They did indeed win that by two and now Kobe host another team in Matsumoto in an almost identical position, the visitors are six points from safety , needing not just two wins and Albirex Niigata to lose both starts, but also an eight goal swing, but I guess if the first two happen, the third criteria is not so unlikely. So, a poor visiting team will have to come and gamble and against a Kobe side who are better than the league table suggests and if news comes that Niigata are two up, Yamaga might even throw in the towel and surrender meekly. Kazuma Watanabe scored all three goals against Yamagata and will definitely be looking to get on the scoresheet today, he has 8 goals from just 11 second stage starts and you know I loves me a striker in form !
1.5 units Vissel Kobe -0.75 ball 2.13 asian line/Sportmarket.
Urawa Reds- Kawasaki Frontale
After five straight wins scoring 19 goals, Frontale have lost their last two and have nothing but pride left to play for. Urawa are looking to pip Sanfrecce to the overall table and have looked back to their very best in recent outings, beating both Gamba and FC Tokyo, they know that two wins will put Hiroshima under huge pressure to do likewise and I favour Reds to win this. They are 12-2-1 at home this season and Frontale play an open style even on the road (7-2-7) and that should play into the hands of the more motivated team.
Having said that team news was not overly important, Frontale arrive in Saitama without their best defender and also top scorer Yoshito Okubo who has 22 goals and three assists this season, only game he missed was a 5-2 loss to basement club Shimizu, nine of his goals have come on the road and they are 1-2-4 away from home when he doesn't score, losing to three bottom five teams . Home win.
1.75 units Urawa Reds -0.75 ball 2.11 asian line/Sportmarket .
Montedio Yamagata- Shimizu S-Pulse
These two are relegated and will next meet in the second tier. Montedio's fate was finally sealed in that loss to Vissel Kobe last time out ( see above). SSP were resigned to their destiny a short time ago and ahead of their last match I wrote .....Shimizu are relegated and this is their final home start of the season, Reysol are a very attack minded team, don't do draws on the road and have nothing to play for . Surely an open encounter and if SSP cannot win for their long suffering supporters, they can surely help provide some much needed entertainment. Hosts home starts have averaged 3.75 goals per game, Reysol road matches a very respectable 2.75, last ten h2h meetings have produced 36 goals with nine going over and there is slim to no chance of this not producing at least three and slim has just left town ! I would not be surprised if Shimizu found a way to win this and I am quite tempted by the circa 3.40 for the home win, they will surely be the more motivated of the two. Having said that, Kashiwa have played Guangzhou (Champions League) Antlers and Gamba Osaka in their last road three starts , which is about as hard as it gets and they will probably welcome the additional space that we surely be available and also the drop in intensity.
