No selections, two "winners", no official selections in the clubgowi Monday newsletter, but we had to talk about something ! The Everton-Palace game saw two goals come late (final 15 miutes) as was highlighted as likely and the Cowboys won 19-16........
The NFL, EPL and FA Cup games were all of some interest, but look more or less correctly priced and I will pass.
The Premier League game which see Everton entertain Crystal Palace is important for our long term plays on the visitors (see below) and the Eagles are in a decent position in 8th place, trailing Leicester City by ten points, with this match in hand.
They are quoted at circa 1.57 to finish top 10 in the Premier League and the market "without the Big 6", is priced roughly 1.90 Leicester, 6 Everton, 6 Southampton, 7 Crystal Palace, 15 West Ham and 34 + the pack.
Palace would be the closest challenger to the Foxes were they to collect a point or better this evening, a win would be huge, but they do still have to host City, Everton and Southampton later in the campaign, so they are not going to be out of this race, regardless of what happens at Goodison tonight, where the Toffees are unbeaten in 15 straight Monday night games, although a lot of those (8) were draws.
Leicester City could hardly be playing any better, but they will be fully tested between now and the end of the year with games against Liverpool, Chelsea, Manchester City and Everton and those 1.90 odds could suddenly look very skinny and are, in my opinion, way too short and their closest challengers in that "without" market all offer better value.
Palace have won on their last two visits here, with a 2-3 scoreline both times and those games averaging 3.5 goals after the break, this might play out similarly, in that the visitors will surely look to keep Everton quiet early and that has been their tactics on the road in any case, work hard, press high and they have not conceded an away goal inside the opening 30 minute all season and only once inside 25 minutes in 14 road starts. So a good chance that if this does open up at some stage, that it is later rather than sooner !
Although I am passing on todays action, if you absolutely have to have a bet, I would suggest that the money line quote of Dallas Cowboys to win against their divisional rivals the Redskins at circa 2.66 was the best option. If for no other reason that the Cowboys are dead and buried, or rather should be with a 3-8 record in the NFC East and it is hard to believe that no team in this always competitive section currently has a winning record, Washington lead the way with 5-6, Philly and the Giants are on 5-7. Redskins would take control with the win this evening, but would remain in strong contention regardless. If Dallas could sweep the Skins, they meet again on the final day of the regular season , they would actually have the same 5-8 record and the Cowboys would edge ahead by virtue of their better h2h record. They would still have to find a couple of other wins from somewhere, but it is all about keeping options open and if they win today they will still have a chance, if they lose, they can already start building for next season and at least look for a back up for Tony Romo and not leave all their eggs in one basket next time round. Season on the line for Dallas and that is why I feel they offer the best value on a day when it is in short supply, but probably a better option is an early night and to prepare for Tuesday !
Good Luck.
Premier League outright markets update: (written October 13th)
Let's begin with Crystal Palace, they have already landed some nice bets for us this season and after eight games, sit in fourth, just three points off the top of the table and with a five point edge over the team in 11th ( see our top ten bet below). Given that they have played three of the Big 4 , plus Tottenham Hotspur on the road, that is a very good return and to put that in context, Leicester City who are level on points with them, have only played one of the Big 4 and conceded five goals in that game !
No one rolls over well organised Palace, who have only conceded more than a single goal only once in 12 starts, they press from the front, work hard all over the pitch, have a very disciplined high defensive line and boast options and cover for all positions that supporters could only have dreamed of 18 months ago. They are a very tough team to concede to and have not dropped any points when scoring first in 2015 . I can see no real weaknesses, I would be quite surprised if they are not still 5th-8th at the turn of the year and they look firmly booked (as a minimum) for that top ten finish, for which they are now quoted at a general price of 1.44. Anyone who has taken the 15.0-17.0 without the "Big 6" also has great value, they are currently 4.5-5.0 and with no weaknesses shown and some tricky fixtures already out of the way, that is likely to provide a lot of excitement in the coming months. Everton (Man U and Arsenal up next) look worthy favourites in that market, but I would not swap for anyone else and 16-1 is a mighty fine price !
Premier League Outright: (written August 4th)
Palace had a great first season in the Premier league in 2013-14 finishing 11th, the second season is always the tough one and they looked in trouble at the turn of the year, but Alan Pardew arrived at New Year and the favourite son of Palace fans took them on an amazing run, 32 points in the second half of the season which equates to 5th spot over a full campaign and they finished tenth, three points and one spot better than under Tony Pulis. This was not a total surprise, ok maybe the manner or it was, but I know a couple of Palace supporters and was well aware of how much Pardew is loved there and the galvanising effect he could have on the club and when he is supported and backed, he is a good coach. We discussed his arrival in some depth and notes from his first couple of starts are reproduced below and they beat Tottenham in that first home league game.
Where can they go from here ? That is the big question and to be honest, for any mid table side and we have to now consider Palace that, it is always easier to fall back and get involved in a relegation scrap, which is obviously easier than the quantum leap required to challenge for a top six spot, but I do not see them heading downwards and there is a bit of leeway in terms of a 7-10th place finish. Pardew took West Ham United to 9th and an FA Cup Final in the same season and Newcastle United into Europe, so has history, but South London is where his heart is being a local lad and he has certainly not lacked for support from the board, who have allowed him to upgrade his squad significantly. He has signed Yohan Cabaye (PSG) a player he had under him at Newcastle, Patrick Bamford (Chelsea) and Connor Wickham ( Sunderland) , without losing anyone he wanted to keep from last season's squad, this is hugely impressive and I see improvement likely for the Eagles. There is certainly room for it in terms of home form, last season they collect 27 of 48 points on the road and lost ten times at Selhurst Park, which was surprising as the atmosphere there is incredibly good, Even if they could just find another 9 points winning three of those ten, that would have been enough for 8th and to within two points of Southampton who had a stunning season. Obviously there is good potential and still room to improve.
I am going to suggest we split our stakes and bet them to finish "best of the rest" so without the big 6 clubs, Arsenal, Chelsea, United, City, Liverpool and Tottenham, along with a top ten finish bet, they were within a spot in 2013-14, made it last season and have majorly upgraded their squad and odds look too big, for what I make a coin flip.
1 unit Crystal Palace without the "big 6" 13.0-15.0 general quote...........there is as high as 17.0 in a place or two.
1.75 units Crystal Palace to finish top 10 @ 2.75 general quote.
Crystal Palace- Tottenham Hotspur
I know that they were only playing Dover Athletic, but I was really impressed by Palace last weekend, Alan Pardew really got his team "up" for the game and even at 3-0 up and coasting against vastly inferior opponents, they were pressing hard all over the pitch. Ahead of that I wrote ...
I see this match largely similar to the WBA-Gateshead game yesterday, it will be tough for a while, but I fully expect the top flight side to eventually progress with a degree of comfort and Palace, like Albion, also have a new boss to impress, with returning favourite son Alan Pardew, now officially named as boss and taking charge for the first time today. Much has been made about the hosts long unbeaten run, with the Kent side having not tasted defeat since early November, however, they have not played any team as good as Palace , none 86 places in the football pyramid above them and when all is said and done, they have 11 teams above them even in the Conference. The Whites are a team I know fairly well, as I get to see about 5-6 games from the Conference South each year, a division which the hosts were somewhat fortunate to have been promoted from last season. You could argue that perhaps they deserved a little luck, as they had come up short in the playoff final the previous year, but they had to dodge a couple of bullets, especially against Eastleigh to even make the decider that year and we covered the second leg tie and final and notes from those can be read in the latter, which is reproduced at the foot of this page ( see January 4th newsletter).
In those notes I spoke about the nerves Dover suffered from in big games and with such a huge build up to this fixture, that has to be a concern. Last season they finished fifthin the Conference South,12 and 11 points respectively behind the second and third placed teams and if they could have picked one team to meet in the final, it would probably have been Ebbsfleet United, whom they have had the indian sign over in recent meetings, things just fell into place for them. This is not a team with even huge top flight non league , let alone football league experience and they look up against it today IMO. That is kind of stating the obvious, but my argument is that there are at LEAST 86 places between these two teams and quite possible more.
For Pardew especially, this is not a step into the unknown, he played seven years of non league football before he first joined Palace and has played pre season games here when Charlton Athletic boss. He knows what this means to the hosts and will ensure his squad, who will be looking to catch his eye, appproach this with the correct attitude and this is a competition close to his heart, having made his name as a player in the FA Cup. The visitors will rotate of course and Mile Jedinak and Yannick Bolasie are on international duty, but anyone coming in will be as hungry as the home players, who are part timers and we saw yesterday how the non league teams did tire against much stronger opposition and the big difference between now and 20 years ago is the huge fitness levels of the upper league players, who have made a quantum leap in terms of lifestyle and eating habits. Away win.
This is a very different game and test, but Pardew is hardly going to have his troops less fired up on his home debut and already has a league win over Tottenham this season , at WHL, with his former club Newcastle United, he made tactical changes there to turn the match on it's head and said afterwards, "We were giving too much possession to Tottenham, too much space." I am 100% certain that Palace will be harrying Spurs all over the pitch and the visitors have been riding a little luck recently, conceding equalisers after leading in 4 of their last 7 including to Swansea, Leicester and Burnley (twice) and had to score last minute winners to come from behind to beat Villa and Hull , who were both reduced to ten men.
I usually like Spurs on the road in these type of games and if they play like they did against Chelsea they will win, but if we see the side that struggled in the road games previously mentioned, I do not feel that Palace right now are the type of team who will rollover so easily.
1.25 units Crystal Palace level ball 2.53 asian line/Sportmarket.
