Ligue 2 :Nancy- Nimes (written 09.00 UK time on Friday 22/01)
Nancy are top of the table, with an eight point lead over third placed Le Havre and look the team most likely to be playing top flight football next season, they are on a very long unbeaten run and playing with great confidence. However, goals are suddenly not quite so easy to come by and they have only scored four inside 90 minutes in their last five starts in all competitions, Those games have all come against teams in the bottom half of the table with an average league placing of 14th, today's opponent Nimes are in 18th, but if you added their points deduction back in, they would be 14th, so are of at least a similar level, but are in their best form of the season and are full of goals right now, with 12 in their last four starts, including six at home to highflying Clermont last time out. Ahead of that game I spoke about how this was Nimes time of year and that they were far from your typical basement club ..........
Nimes problems have been well documented and they sit bottom of Ligue 2 on 12 points, six from safety, however, if we gave them their eight point deduction back they would have five teams below them in the table and are clearly not the worst team in the division and recent form, especially in the goal scoring department has been good, with two goals in 5 of their last 6 starts and they have given themselves a chance of survival. They have some history of running into form at this time of year, in 2013-14 they looked in trouble at Christmas with only 15 points from 18 starts, but then collected the same number from the next eight (4-3-1) and last year, they went on a bit of a tear up with nine wins from 16 starts from November onwards which took them into the promotion race , before the match fixing claims stalled their run. The 29 points they collected in that sequence equates to 69 over a full season and that would have earned them second place and was the level they were playing at for three months and although this is not the same team, it does highlight their potential and they are not your typical bottom of the table team by any means.
Clermont are up to third, just four points off promotion pace and back on track after a mini blip with 13 goals and 13 points from five starts. We spoke a lot about them in early season and how they had finished 2014-15 on fire ....... Clermont enjoyed a very strong finish and collected 20 points ( 2.0 per game) over their final ten matches and hauled themselves up into mid table safety after looking in trouble, finally finishing as close to Nancy in 5th as they were to the drop zone.
If we look at their last 30 L2 starts, they have collected an average 1.8 points and that is promotion form across almost a full season and they are clearly top 3 on merit. Two in form teams and both scoring for fun right now and each will surely be looking for three points and will be prepared to gamble to get them. Nimes will be without suspended central defender Anthony Marin.
Those notes were clearly borne out by the result and Nimes certainly will not travel lacking confidence or without hope. They will not overly panic if falling behind as they have taken 8 points from 7 away games in which they have trailed at half time and their second half road starts have averaged exactly 2.0 goals.
Four of the last six h2h meetings have ended all square and the other two were decided by a single goal and I see plenty of value in Nimes with the full goal handicap start. Suspended central defender Anthony Marin returns for the visitors.
Anthony Robic has been included in the Nancy squad, but is listed as a doubt and will face a late test, he has five goals this season from the right wing, scored the equaliser at Brest last week and assisted for the first goal in the reverse fixture with Nimes where Nancy have to twice come from behind to take a point.Defensive midfielder Diallo Guidileye is definitely out and Nancy have conceded three goals in the last two games he has not started, just four in nine otherwise.
1.5 units Nimes +1 ball 2.12 asian line/Sportmarket.
Nancy : Ndy Assembe, Samba - Cétout, Cuffaut, Chrétien, Lenglet, Muratori, Iglesias, Pedretti, Aït Bennasser, Lusamba, Puyo, Busin, Coulibaly, Dalé, Hadji, Robic.
Nimes: Michel – Gallo -Cordoval – Harek – Paquiez – Marin – Valls - Azouni – Savanier – Lacourt – Cissokho – Bobichon - Mounié – Koura – Ripart – Maoulida.
Good Luck.