I reviewed five of today's football matches, one of which you can read below .........
Peru have made a bit of a hash of World Cup qualification and sit way down in 8th, six points off the promised land of fourth spot after winning just one of their opening six games. Still 12 rounds to play, so they are not out of things, but could do with a confidence boost and I expect them to be very motivated for the Copa to provide that fillip and build on their third place finish in the competition last year. I spoke about that ahead of their CONMEBOL World Cup opener .............
Columbia were eliminated from the Copa America at the quarter final stage scoring just a single goal in four starts, including a 0-0 draw with tonight's oponents and only made it that far as one of the "best" third placed teams. Goals have been an issue all year, a couple of early games against lowly opposition aside and they have managed just three in seven starts and whilst they have been solid defensively, they have created very little and the midfield looks unbalanced and are providing too few chances for their misfiring strikers. They have only played one match since the Copa, a 1-1 draw with, yes you guessed it , Peru last month in the US.
Peru impressed at the Copa and lost unluckily to host and eventual competition winner Chile in the semi final, where they felt they were robbed after a controversial red card saw them reduced early in the game to ten men, despite which they stayed competitive for 90 minutes and only lost narrowly, ahead of that game my notes included .....
With Brazil, who have always been a bogey team for Chile out of the competition and Argentina facing a rematch with a Paraguayan side they struggled with at the group stage tomorrow, things are starting to look hugely promising for the hosts, but with that comes added pressure, the level of expectation is through the roof and now, failure to reach the final will be seen as a bit of a disaster and if Peru can hang on in there early, they can use that to their advantage. Peru have looked very well organised at these championships and were comfortable quarter final winners over Bolivia, ahead of which I wrote ......Peru have looked very solid keeping Colombia and Venuezuela scoreless and Brazil at 1-1 (after two early goals) for 87 minutes. They do not have any real weaknesses, look good in defence and midfield and have three veteran forwards in Paolo Guerrero, Jefferson Farfan and Claudio Pizarro who are all the wrong side of thirty and playing in what might be their last major championship, the trio have all played at the top level in Europe and have 60 international goals between them and can find a goal and one might be enough, to edge this. Peru feel they are improving and have more to offer and I would have been very keen on them for this if they were not without captain Carlos Labatón and defensive midfielder Josepmir Ballón, who are both suspended. That kind of tempers enthusiasm, but they are in their 7th straight Copa quarter final and will be looking to at least equal their 2011 3rd place finish. They were not adventurous enough in the semi final against Uruguay that year and I feel they will have learned from that.
They were 2-0 up inside the first quarter of the game, had a whopping 27 attempts on goal (hitting the woodwork twice) and Paolo Guerrero scored a hat trick, before Bolivia made the scoreline respectable with a late consolation goal, it was an impressive victory and this is a team on the up and improving game upon game. Chilean centre back Gonzalo Jara is suspended after putting his finger where it should not be put (!) and the hosts conceded two goals at home to the US in the only start he has missed in 2015. Mexico are the only team who have really taken the game to Chile in this competition and they scored three without the cream of their offensive talent and if Peru are prepared to have a go, I can definitely see a goal or maybe two for them and I am very keen on the "away" team with the handicap start. Peru use both flanks well and could create havoc in the box, with a big aerial advantage over Chile .
They then went on to take 3rd with an easy win over Paraguay and it was a hugely succesful Copa for Peru with Christian Cueva and Paolo Guerrero (see above) who was also joint top scorer, both making the team of the tournament. Given how well they have played this year, including two draws versus Colombia already and with the home side struggling for goals and missing star player James Rodriguez and that the hosts, even if they take the lead will play mindful of their trip to Urugauy in a couple of days time, I cannot agree with such a big handicap start.
Peru were VERY unlucky to lose that 2-0 and were the better team at 0-1 for the second half, they also felt hard done by losing 4-3 to Chile a few days later and that just started them off in the competion on the wrong foot and it has been hard to find a way back.
They are much changed in the interim and some of the veterans have gone, but Paolo Guerrero (pictured) remains and was top scorer in the 2011 Copa, they now have, aside from Bolivia, the most home based squad in the tournament with 17 players earning their living domestically, but those will be hungry and looking to impress scouts from elsewhere and there are bound to be one or two new stars amongst them and tiny winger Christian Cueva really impressed with Toluca of Mexico and has just been signed to a long term contract by Sao Paulo, with a lot of European clubs interested.
In a group with big rivals Ecuador and a Brazil team they "never" beat, Peru will be really up for their opener.
Haiti are not without offensive talent and they have played six games in the US in the last 12 months, they impressed at the Gold Cup last year and ahead of their last group game I wrote ............
Today sees the final two games in Group A, the US lead with a perfect six points and have already claimed top spot, Panama are in second with two points, Honduras and Haiti are tied on a sinle point, with the Hondurans holding third by virtue of having scored more goals.
Tie breaker criteria for the group is points, goal difference, number of goals scored, h2h record (points only), drawing of lots.
Tie breaker to decide the two best third placed teams is 1-3 of above citeria and then the drawing of lots.
Obviously the US have nothing to play for, but are looking to ride the tidal wave of interest from the Women's World Cup win and big MLS signings, they also have a perfect 3/3 record at Sporting Park to defend. They might also look to eliminate Panama, who they faced in the last final, seeing them as a potential threat, but of course, all this still doesn't add up to the same motivation as their opponent has. A point would probably be enough for Panama to progress and it would even secure second spot if the match earlier in the evening was drawn, but all three points will probably be needed to clinch the runner up spot and that would (almost certainly) mean avoiding Mexico until the final.
Honduras will secure third with a draw. but two points and a minus goal difference might well not be enough, as only two of the three third placed teams progress, Haiti are out unless they win and surely we will see a positive result for one of these two. The winner would have a good chance of clinching second spot as then Panama would need all three points to finish runner up.
We can start with the earlier match ( the games are placed back to back in the same stadium), the US, who have actually not played particularly well, could have dropped points to both, Honduras are very well organised, have a real talent in Andy Najar and can be a very intimidating, physical side, something we have seen from them previously. Haiti's build up play was good and they showed more offensively than against Panama, but do not pose a huge goal scoring threat, although they did have 15 attempts on goal against the hosts. They will be without defensive midfielder Jean Alexandre today who is suspended, but surely we will see a start for very talented Jeff Louis who only played 25 minutes against the US, being "rested" with this match in mind.
Only one FIFA ranking place between these two and if we just view the matches against the US as a guide, it is hard to justify the circa 5.0 quotes about Haiti winning, especially as any other result is going to see them eliminated, the problem is that my head is telling me that they could get bullied out of this, so I will go small and blue, but there is never anything wrong with taking odds which just seem wrong............ 1 unit Haiti to win (-0.5 ball) 4.75-5.0 general quote.
They landed that big odds bet for us winning 1-0 and have more about them than they sometimes show. They played quite well in a pre tournamnet friendly 3-1 loss to Colombia last week and it could easily have ended 4-3 , unfortunately, we will probably not see much from them offensively until they fall behind, they will start with a five man defence with two defensive midfielders probably Mustivar and Alexandre sitting right in front of them. However, their games do get very stretched once they concede and then they give up chances and can be far too gung ho, basically, they lose discipline. Haiti have a terrible record against South American teams and Peru will not really have anywhere to go if they do not win this opener, they played two warm up games, did not really treat the match with El Salvador, which they won 3-1, seriously, but had what will be close to their starting line up versus Trinidad, who are a very similar side to Haiti and were two up before the break and won 4-0.
If I felt Haiti would give this a real go, I would love to bet the "over", but that seems unlikely until they fall behind, but we can definitely look to side with the underdog in some way in their two remaining matches, for today, it will have to be .............
1.5 units Peru -1 ball 2.28 asian line/Sportmarket.
Good luck.
