Championship betting tips: Aston Villa - Bristol City // Brighton- Newcastle United
Feb 28, 2017
Championship:
Aston Villa - Bristol City
Brighton- Newcastle United
The two top teams in the championship clash at the AmEx and you could make a case for a draw suiting both, it would keep Brighton top and enable United to open up a six point lead over Huddersfield Town (having played a game more). However, we do not see too many draws in the second tier (23%), where I often speak about the hugely competitive nature of games and last midweek I previewed United's home game with disappointing Aston Villa , who also feature today and discussed how the Magpies are not as defensively solid as your average Championship promotion team ............
United would move back above Brighton and to the top of the Championship with the win, Villa only have avoiding a relegation battle as a target now, after entering January with eyes firmly on a promotion challenge. Following a good December and spending heavily (again) in January, the Villans are without a win in eight and have failed to score in half of those, they have lost four in a row (and 6/7 in total) since the final day of the transfer window, when they signed striker Scott Hogan from Brentford for circa £12-15m, which took their spending for the season up to around £80m, huge sums in Championship terms. Head coach Steve Bruce was not in charge when all that money was spent, but was here for the January window and would have had a big say in the business done then and he is now under huge pressure with patience and time fast running out.
Villa did not seem to be in the running for Hogan until very late in the day and it kind of smacked of desperation, not that SH is not a prolific striker and one I hold in high regard, he will score goals at any level, but in terms of where Bruce thought he was going to play his new signing. I have never seen Hogan play anything other than the lone striker role, the Bees have played 4-2-3-1 for probably 95% of starts in the last 5-6 seasons and he also scored almost all his goals prior to that at Rochdale as the sole front man. Villa were already mainly playing the same formation and did so when I saw them at Griffin Park on January 31st , with Jonathan Kodjia who had just returned from the ACN in the role, he was another big money signing in August . I assume Bruce felt, maybe still does, that they could play together as a "2", but I never saw how that was likely to work. Both want to play and are used to playing as the sole striker, they have had no time to work on anything else and both had had a disruptive month, Hogan having barely played and with uncertainty about his future and Kodjia in Africa. Villa did play two up front in their last two wins back in December and the head coach might have been swayed by that, but that was with different personnel.
For the last game, a 3-1 home defeat to Barnsley, they went 4-2-3-1 with Hogan up top and Kodjia on the left of the three and did create chances, in fact, they have had 44 attempts in their last two starts (one goal ). With six days to work on things on the training ground, I hope Bruce has the confidence to stick with that formation tonight, even if it means starting with one of those two on the bench, as it is the only way I can see things working for them right now. Hogan likes a big stage and has already scored two at Brighton and one here at St James' Park (for Brentford) this season and if Bruce makes the correct decision, I feel we will see much more from him and Villa this evening.
United have conceded in 10 of 15 home games and given up two or more to Huddersfield, Wolves, Norwich City and QPR, two of whom don't pose half the offensive threat that Villa do/should. Hogan to score anytime @ 3.50-4.0 is big , especially as he has already done so at this ground this season (should have had two that day) and will look on the huge side if he starts as the sole striker.
United have conceded at the rate of 1.0 per game at home and already lost four times here at SJP, five of the last eight automatically promoted teams only lost twice at home all season and four of them conceded fewer goals in total than the Magpies have already given up and defensively, they are not your typical Championship promotion team.
United won that 2-0, but Villa were the better team for the first half and missed a couple of good chances to take the lead and if they had, it would probably have been a different result, but such is the way of things were luck is not running your way and their misery was compounded when Hogan ( see above) was injured and he is set to miss five weeks plus. That kind of solves the "problem" for now as Bruce went back to Kodjia as the sole front man in the 1-0 derby win over Derby County at the weekend, their first victory in 11 starts. It was very hard earned, a real grind, but they restricted the Rams to just a single attempt on target, it was a massive relief and they need to look to build on it now. The club announced an £81m loss this week for 2015-16 , have continued to spend big and will be playing Championship football again next season, as a minimum, they some positives to take into the summer and that means a good run over the final 13 games.
They showed promise at Newcastle and now that they have the breakthrough win, can follow up tonight. City are better than their lowly position suggests, I touched upon that in my mid season Championship notes and draws at Newcastle and Derby in the last couple of weeks and they led 3-0 and 2-0 respectively in those games, highlights what they are capable of, if only for 45-60 minutes. However, they have had a hugely draining six days, playing at home to a very decent Fulham team last wednesday, travelling to the North East and back on Saturday and now up to Villa. They have what looks a very win-able home game with Burton Albion this weekend and it might not be easy to give everything this evening and again on Saturday, after two such tough back to back fixtures, both on quick turnaround. City are again without top scorer Tammy Abraham, who is sidelined for a third game with a thigh injury, he has scored 12 of his 18 goals on the road and City have taken just one away point without a contribution from him.
Down on the South Coast I expect a more open contest and on Saturday , I wrote about the Seagulls fantastic home form against the other top clubs ahead of a visit from Reading ..............
I have seen nothing recently from Reading to make me change my mind about them being in a false position in the Championship. Having seen them ride their luck time and time again , not least in a 3-2 win over Brentford this month when they should have conceded five. They lost at Huddersfield on Tuesday to a late goal and any lingering hopes of reaching the automatic promotion spots will fade completely should they come up short today. That should ensure they gamble at some stage and they are hit and miss on the road anyway, with few draws and having conceded a whopping 29 goals , seven more than any other team in the top 7.
Brighton would pretty much make it any 2 from 3 for automatic promotion were they to win and the pressure on them to do so will be increased further were Huddersfield Town, currently four points adrift in third, able to win earlier in the day, as hoped and expected. The Seagulls have had a free week to prepare, whereas the Royals made the eight hour round trip to Yorkshire in midweek.
6 of Reading's 7 away wins have come against teams in the bottom half of the table, the other was at poor home side ( see above) Barnsley, they are 0-0-4 in road games against top 7 teams and also conceded seven in losing at Derby and Brentford. This is not a top six quality team IMO.
Brighton are a perfect 6/6 at home to top 9 teams and after today, meet the other, leaders, Newcastle United, on Tuesday, they certainly do not want to go into that on the back of a defeat or even dropped points. Both to play for the win and some justice, with the better team taking the spoils .
Brighton won 3-0, so are now 7/7 against the top nine and will be looking to complete the sweep, it is all about promotion for them of course and this season the message looks to have got across (they have blown promotion positions twice previously in recent campaigns) that this is the period through which you have to kick on and also, that playing for a point ( they have gone too conservative in the past), will ultimately do little but put yourself under pressure. Their more aggressive approach and great record under lights at the AmEx (14-4-1 here in Tuesday night games )and United's 27 away goals and "poor" defensive record overall, should result in goals, 2-1 one way or the other !
1 unit Aston Villa -0.75 ball 2.47 asian line/Sportmarket.
1 unit Brighton- Newcastle United "over" 2.5 goals 2.35 asian line/Sportmarket.
Good Luck.
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