We are now in NFL pre season mode, the games themselves are of little real interest or importance, but do herald the start of the new season which begins on September 6th, on Thursday of next week. I have been doing a LOT of work on this over the summer, it is several years since I put up an outright selection before the season started, but I have one this year and at huge odds, the last four I have put up before play got underway included two winners at 28-1 and 25-1 plus a 14-1 runner up who were first and goal from the eight yard line to score the winning points, with time running out, and they did not run the ball with their opponents unable to stop them on the ground, unbelievable ! But I did promise myself I wasn't going to mention that again !
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We were with the Philadelphia Eagles right through the 17-18 post season, feeling they offered tremendous value, when everyone else was treating them like a hot potato !
Sample previews below.
Good luck !
Super Bowl: New England Patriots- Philadephia Eagles
Game will be played in the US Bank Stadium , Minneapolis, the home of the Minnesota Vikings. Weather will not be an issue in the fixed roof arena, but outside it will be brutally cold, almost certainly the lowest tempertaure ever recorded in a host city on the day of the Super Bowl.
Patriots are looking to win for the third time in four years and to give quarterback Tom Brady and head coach Bill Belichick their 6th Super Bowl and some 16 years after the first which is incredible in terms of the quarterback. The dynamic duo have led New England to now eight Super Bowls, the previous seven were all decided by less than a touchdown, one by six points in overtime , another by four and five, by exactly three points, which is certainly not without interest with the
Eagles getting a 4.5 handicap start.
12 months on , I am still not sure how the Patriots won last year, they were never in the contest at 28-3 down, until they were ! That was the biggest comeback in Super Bowl history and it was the first to go to overtime. Brady broke single game Super Bowl records with 43 completed passes, 62 pass attempts, and 466 passing yards and was named MVP for a record fourth time, it was Brady being Brady and then some. But it is still difficult to get away from the fact that it was the Falcons who lost the Super Bowl and not the Pats who won it. I do not truly know if they collapsed/choked/ hit a wall as I have not be able to bring myself to re-watch the game or any part of it, or Super Bowl XLVII either for that matter and that 49 ers loss, and am pretty sure I never will. I still wake up in a cold sweat sometimes shouting "run the ball" and probably have 1st and goal from the 8 yard line carved into my greiving heart. Most losses stay with me just a moment, some a lifetime ! Anyway, I digress, the Patriots are great champions, Belichick and Brady might both be the GOAT, but all their Super Bowls have been close and I would say they were fortunate to win as many as five, but, knowing the competitive nature of the pair, they might view it as unlucky to lose two ! Brady has played most of his career outdoors, his record is actually better inside and you will doubtless read much about that in build up, but it didn't look good in the third quarter 12 months ago in a domed stadium and the Patriots are unlikely to come back from the dead again, not against this Eagles defense and I am talking about even as many as 10 points, not 25 !
It is the
Eagles I want to largely focus on,
they lost quarterback Carson Wentz late in the season and that means they played both post season games as underdog, despite being the #1 ranked team in the Conference and having home field advantage, I didn't think that was correct and we sided with them in both, notes on the second are reproduced the "good luck" sign off in full and highlight how I felt back up Nick Foles had been much maligned and hugely underrated. He led them to a super impressive 38-7 win in that, he completed 26/33 passes for 352 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions and a QB rating of 141.4 ! Philly had 27 first downs and completed on 71% of third downs (Vikings had been brilliant on 3rd downs all season) which you do not do unless your team and quarterback is playing with huge confidence. It was a top five ranked performance compared to all post season games played over the last dozen years and you can make a case for it being better than that ! Foles was pressured 11 times in the game and his passer rating for those 11 plays was up to 152.1 ! Ahead of the game I wrote .......
The Eagles won 15-10, they had the most yards and first downs and Foles had no touchdown passes, but completed on 23 of 30 for 246 yards and a passer rating of just over 100 ( see above). Philly actually had 12 first downs by passing. The quarterback has plenty to offer and probably doesn't even have to do as much as last week, to give his team a chance. Jeffrey (see above) had four catches for 61 yards and whilst there was no TD, it is overdue now and he was one of eight players that Foles completed to.
Foles did not need to improve for them to have won again, but he did and by a considerable margin and they trounced the Vikings, he doesn't need to equal the Championship game stats today either, anything on a par with the numbers from the Falcons game will give his team a chance, anything above it, a great one. We cannot be sure which Foles will turn up, his passer rating could be anything between 60-140, but anything above the mid mark of that band will see the scales tip towards Philly as favourites. Jeffrey had 5 catches for 85 yards and two touchdowns and it feels like it has all come together offensive for Foles and his receivers at the right time. I don't think I can desert them and see their chance as far greater than 36%. My view is that if Foles is largely error free, Brady needs a another really big day to lead his team across the finishing line, of course, you will not get rich by backing against him doing so too often, but odds are (too) favourable not to do so today.
Also, both Super Bowls that the Patriots lost, came against the New York Giants and I cannot get out of my mind how similar these Eagles are to the (Old) Tom Coughlin led Giants. The percepted wisdom and from pople who know far more about these kind of things than me, is that to beat Brady you need to put him under pressure, without blitzing, he handles the blitz pretty much as well as any QB in history and we can all see that. The Eagles put QB's under pressure on 41% of plays, the most in the NFL, but blitz the 10th least, they are the identikit defense to match up well with TB. In his two Super Bowl losses he was presured on over 40% of dropbacks, but blitzed only on 20% of those plays, in his five wins, he was hurried on under 40% of dropbacks, it sounds simple, but why complicate matters, especially when that is what you do better than anyone else ! The Eagles pressure the oppositing quarterback 1.7 times more per game than any other team in the NFL and have the highest rate of non blitz related rushes by far. The Falcons were almost as well equipped last year and incredibly, when they led by 25 points, had pressured Brady on a whopping 44% of dropbacks, but then went to pieces and ended up at 30% for the game, at the time and as I have already said, there is not enough money out there to make me re-watch , my feeling was that Atlanta just hit a wall and those numbers back that up. Philly won't, that is how they play every game and they can rotate with SEVEN players with 20 total pressures and are very similar to those NY teams who beat up on Brady. Sacks are the sexy stats, but it is pressures which are the less vaunted game changers.
Philly's normal defensive game will give them a better chance than anyone else in the NFL of restricting Brady, offensively we know that Foles could have another breakout day, but probably doesn't need to do anything spectacular. My heart says this should be a pick, my head has seen the Vegas line and could perhaps go 52%-48% in favour of the Patriots, but no more, so my hands are tied.
1.75 units Philadelphia Eagles to beat the New England Patriots 2.75 Money Line Pinnacle/ Vegas Line/Sportmarket Pro, best alternative would have to be taking that 4.5 point handicap start which would have won in 6 of 7 Pats Super Bowls and had you tearing your hair out in the other (last year !).
To score a touchdown:
Alshon Jeffery who has got several mentions in these notes, finally got fully in sync with Nick Foles last week and caught passes for two touchdowns, his first since Week 15, he had 9 during the regular season and is very streaky, having scored in four straight and six from seven games. He is quoted at between 2.60-3.30 to score a touchdown today, he is reasonable value at the lower end, way, way too big near the upper limit and if you find close to that, I suggest you take it. The super confident wide receiver has pretty much "guaranteed " the win and was correcting all reporters who started their question with "if" you win the Super Bowl, to "when".
I was going to look at some other game markets in detail, but on reflection, feel that there is too much solid value in the Eagles for the game to divert it elsewhere.
Good Luck.
Minnesota Vikings @ Philadelphia Eagles (written January 21st)
You all saw the preview of the Vikings- Saints game last week and can refer to that for any background notes on Minnesota, I took New Orleans to win at 3.0 + they traded at circa 1.06 with less than half a minute remaining and lost to one of the worst errors you will see on a football field. It cost us a weekend sweep and some big units and is frustrating, that tackle is made 24 times out of 25, probably more, but that unknown is what makes sports betting "fun", although sometimes it is tough to remember that !
The Vikings are free rolling, they should have lost and everything now is a bonus and if they win today, they will host a Super Bowl, a massive incentive. But they do have to handle and overcome that #2 team curse we have discussed through post season and I have doubts that they should be favourites today. They are a dome team and play outdoors at "The Linc", that is very different, having said that, today should pose no real issues, beyond the fact that the Eagles are at home and strong as a host and have a back up quarterback who is hugely underrated , meaning we again get great odds. Last week when they hosted the Falcons I wrote ...........
"Incredibly" given their respective 13-3 /10-6 records and home field advantage, the Eagles are underdogs and that has 100% to do with the season ending injury to quarterback Carson Wentz and very little else, ok, perhaps also the ridicule that many writers/viewers like to sling at back up Nick Foles !
Foles came in for Wentz late in the Week 14 game in LA versus the Rams, where he led his team to a come from behind victory against a playoff bound opponent....
I discussed that and his record in his first start against the Giants...........
I am going to race through the games today, we have a lot of background notes on teams "in the bank" and know where we rate them and you can email search any should you wish. Two NFC East rivals, but having contrasting seasons, with the Eagles at 11-2 and already having sealed the divisional title and the woeful Giants on 2-11 and having a season they will wish to forget and with draft positions to consider, so they might not even want to win. However, big question ahead of this game is how Philly will manage without MVP candidate Carson Wentz, the young quarterback who was going to lead them to a Super Bowl win and who is now out for the season. It is hard to compare quarterback to any other position in team sport, he kind of fills the role of father, captain, striker, play maker and even that does not fully do it justice. It is massive, look how Aaron Rodgers has been missed by Green Bay and not for the first time, but Wentz is not Rodgers and it now feels very shrewd that Philly have been not asking Wentz to do too much and I spoke about this recently ..............
Eagles have purposely limited the number of times Wentz is asked to throw (13 times fewer on average in his last 5 starts than previous 12, down from 42 to 29) that is not likely to change given the conditions and without the protection of Jason Peters. I can see a scenario where they will solely run if up by two scores.
Tonight back up Nick Foles will take charge, he came off the bench to lead the Eagles to a win from 35-31 down against the 9-3 Rams on the road last week and I do not see him as a normal back up, or lacking in confidence and look at his record ..............
Foles finished the 2013 regular season with 27 touchdown passes and only 2 interceptions, surpassing Tom Brady's 2010 season posting of 36/4 for the best TD-INT ratio in NFL history, and a season leading 119.0 passer rating and third in NFL history trailing only to Aaron Rodgers' 122.5 rating in 2011 and Peyton Manning's 121.1 rating in 2004. Foles led the Eagles to a playoff berth, the first since 2010. Hosting the Saints in the playoffs at Lincoln Financial Field, the Eagles lost on a last-minute field goal as the game ended at 26–24. Foles threw for 195 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions, for a passer rating of 105.0, in his postseason debut. Foles was awarded the "NFL Greatness on the Road" award for his seven touchdown, perfect game performance against the Oakland Raiders during a road game in 2013.
They won that , it was hard work, but they and the back up had a lot to deal with, then at home to the Raiders.........
Now they are back at Lincoln Financial Field for their final two starts and know that by winning out, they will secure home field advantage in the NFC for the post season. That is a massive incentive, especially as they have won their last eight here . They tend to win big in Philly, 10 of their last 12 coming by 9+ points, 4 of 5 by 23 +. The two narrow wins were both against the Giants and divisional games always have a life of their own. Of course, Wentz was at the helm for those previous wins, but we spoke about Foles being capable last week and he did little wrong, throwing four touchdown passes, no interceptions and posting a QB rating of 115.8 (Wentz was under that in 10 games this season).
They won that too, by 9 points, Foles did not play well, but come on, it was all about the result, his defense played well and got the result required. They lost 6-0 at home to Dallas on the final day of the regular season, but had already secured the #1 ranking, rested several key players and Foles only played a quarter, his numbers were not great, but Philly would have led if Torrey Smith had caught an easy pass from NF. But the performance and result was all Foles fault, "he is the biggest schmuck to ever take a snap in the NFL", it is "true" just read any preview of the upcoming game, or most Eagles forums !
The real truth is that he has earned three wins and might have got that fourth if Philly hadn't had to save him for today, he was asked to do a terribly hard job coming in late in the campaign for a MVP candidate, has done almost all that was demanded of him and been castigated for it ! His career passer rating is 87.4, Wentz is a shade higher at 88.8, one is a buffoon, the other a god like creature ! I like Wentz and their chance would be greater with him at the helm, but I am just trying to get away from an unrealistic knee jerk reaction which has prevailed
Today he will face a team that allowed an opponent passer rating of 91.9, 20th in the NFL (it is even worse 95.4 on the road....#24th), only one of the 12 playoff teams was ranked lower and they have already been eliminated, 4 of the remaining 8, including the Eagles are top 7 in this category. If Foles is allowed to come close to 90, it will be VERY difficult for Atlanta to win.
Foles is not going to be asked to do much, the Eagles defense is strong and Jim Schwartz’s unit play better at home and have only allowed 16 total points and 4.56 yards per play in their last two games, the same two where they have been so bad ! They registered five takeaways and have forced two turnovers on downs too with back ups facing an NFL starting offense in Week 17. The Falcons are a step up offensively, but not as strong as last year and the visitors will struggle, like everyone has, against the Philly pass rush, the Eagles are #1 for "pressure generated" and way ahead of anyone else in the NFL, with 40 more "pressures" than any other team. They are strong at home, won 9 straight until resting starters and have had two weeks to rest up, without travel (it is basically a month since they have had to leave Philly and they will be playing outdoors in conditions which suit them better. The Falcons were in LA last weekend and are now playing 4,500 KM East, across three time zones, at a different time of day, in MUCH colder, wetter, windier weather and remember, Atlanta play in a domed arena. Underfoot conditions could be bad, look at this report.
Philly running game is ranked #3, ten spots higher than the Falcons, the Eagles will be looking to make this a tight battle in the trenches and conditions might be very favourable for that. If not, there are stats (see above) to suggest that the home defense can trouble the Falcons passing game, again, if not, there is a chance that Foles can come good, cue laughter amongst reporters, but look at his overall numbers above, not just the last two games.Players/bettors love injuries and few in sport are as important as the QB, but I feel everyone has gone overboard and that odds are TOO lopsided.
Philadelphia don’t need Foles to win them the game, just to make plays when called upon and avoid game changing errors that can swing a contest. A pass or two to top receiver Alshon Jeffery might help, when he has a TD, they average 11.6 points per game more and he and Foles have had a month now to get fully in sync.
Elsewhere , everyone will be making a case for why a Foles led Eagles cannot win, I think we have an equally good case for why they can and given the odds, maybe a better argument.
The Eagles won 15-10, they had the most yards and first downs and Foles had no touchdown passes, but completed on 23 of 30 for 246 yards and a passer rating of just over 100 ( see above). Philly actually had 12 first downs by passing. The quarterback has plenty to offer and probably doesn't even have to do as much as last week, to give his team a chance. Jeffrey (see above) had four catches for 61 yards and whilst there was no TD, it is overdue now and he was one of eight players that Foles completed to.
Case Keenum dodged a couple of bullets for the Vikings last week with his YOLO throws, one of which was intercepted, at least one other should have been, he has got used to throwing into dangerous positions and situations , will be in some today , with a "mismatch" between the Eagles defensive interior and Vikings offensive line who are having to handle changes at guard. Failure to establish a running game against the #1 rushing defense will only put further pressure on Keenum.It is the Vikings who have to answer more questions today to my mind and I cannot have this as more than a "pick".
