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Euro 2016 (written June 9th 2016)

 

Not the easiest set of notes to write as I do not want to tie up too many units pre tournament and neither do I want to commit myself at this stage in terms of comments set in stone (print !), to too many teams...........
 

We have a 24 team tournament for the first time in history, so only eight eliminations at the group stage and it is unlikely that there will be too many early shocks in terms of big name departures.
 

Hosting nations have disappointed, but we have a strong home team this time round and France have a very nice draw, starting in an easy group and then likely to face a third placed team, followed by the runner up of Group B or F, to reach the semis. It is hard to argue with them as favourites, but odds of 4.0 are not my idea of a fun price and there is a, not unlikely scenario, in which the draw could turn sour and they might have to beat Spain and Germany just to make the final.
 

That involves Spain not winning Group D, which we will discuss later, which, combined with Group wins for France and Germany, would see all three of the big players together in the bottom half of the draw and really open up the competition for teams like England , Portugal, Croatia, Poland and Belgium or Italy (the runner up in E), or anyone else you fancy to win Group D, B or F, or finish runner up in A,C or E, to progress through the top half. It is that "half" that I wish to concentrate on.
 

I think that Poland and Croatia are dark horses and I will be looking to side with them in some way, Italy should never be underestimated and you kind of "know" that if the draw works out largely as planned, they will find a way to finish runner up in Group E, but this looks one of their weakest ever squads and only Daniele De Rossi has double digit international goals, his total is only 18, but it is still a couple more than the six forwards combined ! Second highest scorer in the squad is Giorgio Chiellini and that kind of says everything and they lack a proven international goalscorer.
 

Spain started the 2014 World Cup finals incredibly poorly and went out at the group stage and also lost their opener in the 2010 edition, it is no surprise as so many of their players are always in club action late in the season and with so many of their players (9) still  involved in cup/title winning games at the end of May this time round, that could again be the case. A few recent results have given cause for concern, they have no recognised international striker and whilst they do have the option to go with a "false nine", that is not how they have played in build up, they can win of course, but might need to grind their way into the tournament and failure to win their group, would make life difficult.
 

Portugal should have won a major championship by now and time looks to be running out, their best chance is always in the Euros and they have finished SF-RU-QF-SF in the lat four, losing to winners France and Spain in extra time/penalties, 3-2 to Germany and cruelly to Greece in a final on home soil ! The really golden generation has passed, they have a world class leader in Cristiano Ronaldo and he is the focus of absolutely everything they do, but he will be 35 at Euro 2020, so I guess it is now, or the World Cup in Russia, or never ! We saw in Brazil at the last World Cup how Portugese hopes faded with the injury he carried into the tournament. He was nursing a knock through late April this year, but played 120 minutes in the Champions League final and I doubt if their were any real concerns that they would have let him spend a week on a yacht before joining his national team mates, instead of being in the treatment room. That is still a bit of a worry and everything they do offensively goes through him and they just have not been scoring enough, they have failed to score at all in 50% of games at the last three major championships, BUT odds of 18-1 are I feel simply too big and they look to not only be coming together under head coach Fernando Santos, but finally scoring a few goals, they might "only " have beaten Norway and Estonia in two warm up games, but they scored ten goals.

Ronaldo proved his fitness and scored a brace, but it was eight from elsewhere which offers encouragement. Eder has resurrected his season /career after moving on loan for the final four months of the season to Lille and is hungry and fresh, he scored two, as did veteran Ricardo Quaresma who seems far happier back in Turkey with former club Besiktas and he and a number of this squad , like Pepe who is coming off a stellar season with Real Madrid ( despite the play acting !), probably realise that like Ronaldo,it is now or never for them.

Santos has big tournament experience and overachieved at the last two finals, taking a very average Greece team to the last eight at Euro 2012 and to the knockout stage of the World Cup for the first time, two years ago. They are not all veterans under his control, Portugal also have a handful of hugely promising youngsters Andre Gomes, Raphael Guerreiro, William Cavalho, Joao Mario and 18 yo Renato Sanches, who has taken Portugese football by storm and has just signed for Bayern Munich for a fee of 35€m that is likely to rise to 45m with add ons. He has been so good, so quickly that some rival coaches have questioned his age. He is unlikely to start, but Portugal have not only him, but a number of potential young game changers on the bench and in the starting eleven and if one or two could make the step up now, they could blossom. A player to really look out for is Joao Mario who might well be on his way to the EPL, the 23 yo has an amazing engine and will not stop running, that allied with great technical ability had him top of many "best midfielder in Portugal" lists this season and with an assist every 55 minutes in his last four apperances for the national team, he is clearly carrying that form into Euro 2016.
 

Austria, Hungary and Iceland make up Group F, I would consider those competitive rather than strong teams, although Austria have dark horse potential, but we can discuss that later in the tournament. Winning this section would keep them in the top half of the draw, overall that would be better, despite maybe having to face say Italy in the last 16, but I would not be as concerned with that as I would have been 2-3 years ago and they have a draw which could work out very well with just a little luck and if not, I feel they are running into form and can be a match for almost everyone and have the best player in the tournament. This is a squad that is often termed average, with one stand out player, but I feel they have some really promising young players, a good coach, are running into form and have some veterans in their best form for some time who know they are drinking in the last chance saloon. On top of all that, odds are good !