All of today's clubgowi football previews ..............
Mar 21, 2021
Japan : J-League 1:
FC Tokyo- Vegalta Sendai
Vegalta have conceded 14 goals in their four starts this season, they are in big trouble, they would have been relegated last season if there had been any relegation and they have not won at home since November 2019 ! On the road they seem happier nowadays and actually won six times last season, averaging just shy of 1.3 away goals per game. They have scored in 6 of their last 7 on the road. Therefore, we know they are capable of a goal or two today, but at the other end of the pitch they are just shipping goals and leaving themselves playing catch up, conceding an average of 2.25 in the opening half of games this season.
FCT are a club who expect to be challenging for a Champions League spot , but they have conceded in their last five and three of their last four games have ended 3-2, two wins and a defeat. Their five starts are averaging 2.6 second half goals with both teams scoring after the break in four of those, which opens up all kinds of options for today. Tokyo play the unbeaten top 2 in their next three starts, so will be desperate for the three points today, just to ease the pressure going into those far tougher fixtures.
1.75 units FCT to win and both teams to score 3.60-3.80 general quote.
Oita Trinita- Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Shonan Bellmare- Cerezo Osaka
I previewed Cerezo- Oita in midweek ............
Cerezo served us well last season and we spoke often about that incredible run they put together is a season's worth of games, albeit across two campaigns (see below). Notes on the two games we have sided with them this season (both winners) can be found under the "good luck " sign off, they beat Yokohama 4-1 on Saturday and they again led at the half (see relevance below). They are playing well, creating freely and their last four games have averaged 4.5 goals and this is not the same team as under Miguel Angel Lotina and if Levir Culpi was born with a defensive bone in his body, he has long since had it surgically removed !
Oita are unbeaten through their four starts, but have played Yokohama and Tokushima definitely two of the weaker teams, they should have lost to FC Tokyo (1-1) in a game where they created almost nothing and did lose to Vissel Kobe, albeit in a "meaningless" League Cup tie. Oita might well struggle this season as they sold a number of key players in the off season and as a minimum could be in transition and with no relegation last season (their second after promotion) maybe we could view this as that always difficult second campaign in the top flight for them. Home win.
Cerezo won 1-0 but made hard work of it with their goal coming quite late and it was a game of few chances. Oita look ok at the back , but definitely have issues going forward, especially against the better teams and I do wonder what they have by way of a Plan B when they fall behind in games. Sanfrecce are unbeaten so far and are very comfortable, perhaps I should have said "most" comfortable, in these type of games, namely away to weaker opposition. In all road starts they have a 50% win rate over the last two seasons and they were 6-2-0 versus bottom 8 opponents last season with six clean sheets and a 15-3 goals difference, that included a 2-0 win here and they have won on their last two visits to Oita without conceding, the hat-trick looks on the cards.
Shonan have already lost four games and conceded 10 goals, they finished bottom last season and this feels like it will be yet another long campaign. They lost both h2h meetings with last season and their last two as host to Cerezo all without scoring a goal and whilst Shonan do seem to be trying to be more offensive minded, they have given up 10 BC's in their last three starts and are leaving themselves very exposed at the back and Cerezo just feel too strong going forward under Culpi not to take advantage.
2 units Sanfrecce Hiroshima -0.5 ball 2.07 asian line/Sportmarket.
2 units Cerezo Osaka -0.75 ball 2.23 asian line/Sportmarket.
Kashima Antlers- Nagoya Grampus
10 days ago I sided with Nagoya Grampus away to Kashiwa Reysol and spoke about the very high level thay had played out for most of the last three campaigns............
Nagoya Grampus finished third last season and had the second best goal difference which is usually a good sign. In 2018 they were bottom of the table at the halfway stage with just 10 points from 17 games, but then picked up 31 from the last 17 rounds. In 2019 they were second after 12 games with 24 points, before falling away, across those 29 consecutive games (two seasons) they averaged 1.9 points and last year were up at 1.91 , so have played at that level for circa 75% of the last two and a half seasons. They were very solid in 2020 playing at a consistent level (finally !) for all 34 rounds and with the best defensive record in J-League. They are 5-0 for BC's in their two starts to date which included keeping Consadole Sapporo, who had scored 8 in their first two starts, very quiet. Nagoya did not concede in their last four starts of 2020 which included a visit here to Kashiwa (1-0 win) just three months ago and allowed Reysol, who were the third highest scorers in Japan last season, just two attempts on target and they can similarly stifle their way to three points again today.
They won that 1-0 and have subsequently beaten Vissel Kobe and Yokoham FC without conceding, they are a perfect 5/5 and have allowed just one goal in their own net and that in a game where they did not give up any attempts on target, or BC's , it came via a late own goal and no opponent has actually scored against them in nine starts. In fact, through those 9 games they have given up just an average of 2.22 attempts on target per game and 0.33 BC's (just one in the last six outings) . To say that is miserly is an understatement and being able to bet them against anyone off level ball, with the exception of Frontale, feels like a total no brainer. Antlers are not fully firing yet and also making things difficult for themselves, witness the early sending off of CB Ikuma Sekigawa in midweek, he will be suspended for today. Nagoya won 2-0 here in Kashima late last season in a game where they were also 4-0 for BC's. Away win.
2.25 units Nagoya Grampus level ball 2.29 asian line/Sportmarket.
FA Cup: Leicester City- Manchester United
Leicester City have been outplayed in 4 of their last 5 starts and priority for them is holding on to their top 4 place and playing Champions League football again, after effectively blowing a spot last season and that will not soon be forgotten. With 8 games to play in 19-20 they were 8 points clear of the team in 5th , they still had a chance on final day needing to win in this very fixture, but lost 2-0.
United have actually scored 10 goals across their last five visits to the King Power and given how very strong defensively they have been on the road this season , even one goal today might be enough. The visitors are second in the Premier League, look good for top 4 and probably top 3 as a minimum, Leicester are their closest challengers and winning today will also give United a mental edge going forward in the race for 2nd.
Even in World terms United are a massive club, they have to win trophies and they will surely be up for this, they are strong favourites for the Europa League (2.75 in last 8 ) and second place in the league and some silverware will mark a fantastic season. United have been sensational on the road, where they are unbeaten in 13 with 9 clean sheets including in their last five and since the end of January last year they have played an unbelievable 38 away games and even more amazingly, have won 25 , a 65.79% win rate and they have not lost a domestic game in that period , which is 14 months ! City head coach Brendan Rodgers has lost 11 of his 14 meetings with Man Utd, failing to win any of the last seven and I expect all those trends to continue.
1.75 units Manchester United -0.5 ball 2.36 asian line/Sportmarket.
Ligue 1: Olympique Lyonnais- Paris St Germain
We landed a massive odds bet pre Christmas when Lyon won away to PSG .......
In Ligue 1 PSG are two points ahead of Lyon, but xP gives the visitors a 1.3 point edge and they should have scored 6 goals more and the Parisian conceded an additional 7. OL have played well post lockdown and kept PSG scoreless in the Coupe de la Ligue final and eliminated Juventus and Manchester City from the Champions League before losing to eventual champions Bayern in the semi finals. No European games for them this season, which could turn out to be a blessing in disguise for their domestic campaign , they are unbeaten in ten and have played six games less than PSG. Of course, it is incredibly difficult to come to Paris and win but that is why you get big odds, PSG and Neymar turned it on in midweek against Basaksehir, but that game, with the well documented drama surrounding it and the one day postponement can hardly be viewed as a positive in terms of preparing for this.
With regard to the other stats, PSG are 145-80 ITB and 53-26 for BC's , Lyon are 144-73 and 42-15 respectively , so identical for net BC's and a small edge for OL on net ITB attempts. With PSG having given up exactly 2 BC's per game it is easy to see them more vulnerable defensively and where those extra 7 goals they should have conceded have come from. Last season their xGA was 0.83 goals pg, this campaign it is 1.22 to further highlight that.
Lyon have clearly improved over the last 12-18 months and it is hard to argue against PSG having regressed this season, to what degree we could debate all day , but the truth is that the Champions League is their priority. Domestically they have 11 points and 14 goals fewer than when 2019-20 ended after 27 games . PSG have looked very suspect to balls in behind their backline in the last couple of weeks (Nantes and Barcelona) and with the front three of OL so fluid it is easy to see that as a route to goal. Lyon have won 4/8 h2h meetings as host and that through a period when PSG have totally dominated Ligue 1, so that is encouraging given that the hosts are on the up and the visitors more vulnerable. OL are 5 points better in terms of xP, they should have scored 7 goals more and PSG conceded an additional 11 goals and those are big numbers.
2 units Olympique Lyonnais level ball 2.33 asian line/Sportmarket.
Serie A: Sampdoria- Torino
Torino made the midweek notes when they came from 2-0 down to beat Sassuolo 3-2 and record their first home win of the campaign ........
This is one of Torino's two games in hand and they would move out of the drop zone with all three points, they made the weekend notes when they hosted leaders Internazionale and those notes are reproduced at the foot of this email.
Inter won that 2-1, but Torino had the same number of on target attempts, hit the woodwork with an absolute sitter of a chance which would have given them the lead and missed 3 BC's total. Inter were the better team of course, we expected that, but Torino created enough to have got some something from that and the performance should have at least encouraged them that they can give anyone a game and get that (winless) home monkey off their back.
Sassuolo were our team for many months through the second half of last year (post lockdown) and served us incredibly well, but have definitely regressed a little, they remain a top 10 team, but cannot (realistically) finish higher than their current position and they look virtually guaranteed for 8th or 9th, that is great for a club of their size and history, but motivation might be tough at times from here on in and they do concede a lot of goals. They have allowed the most amongst top half of the table teams and have not kept a clean sheet in 16 starts, conceding 2 or more in 9 of those.
Torino should have top scorer Andrea Belotti good to go this evening at least for an hour and Antonio Sanabria (see both players below) has two goals in two starts which is why he was bought into the club and all connected with Torino must be excited to see what these two can do (in tandem or not) over the closing couple of months of the campaign.
They had 22 attempts, 14 ITB, 11 on target with 5 BC's, Belotti and Sanabria did start in tandem and late in the game they were joined by Simone Zaza who we also discussed recently and I cannot easily recall a struggling team with so much offensive talent and threat.
Torino have been better on the road all season and will certainly not fear a trip to Genoa to face Sampdoria who also play openly and who are eight games without a clean sheet and this feels like a game which will be played to suit the visitors' strengths. Last three h2h meetings here have ended 1-1-1 with Torino conceding exactly one goal in each, including a 4-1 win and if Samp again score just one goal, I cannot see them winning and suspect it will be three points going back to Turin.
Samp are without suspended AM Gastón Ramírez who has four assists and when he plays 30 minutes or less, they are 1-3-9 conceding in each, 2+ goals in 9 and scoring just 12 goals total.
2 units Torino level ball 2.06 asian line/Sportmarket.
Good luck !
Yokohama FC- Cerezo Osaka (written March 12th)
Cerezo made the midweek notes when they hosted Shimizu S-Pulse.............
Cerezo have played three league games which is more than most, so they should have a fitness edge (League Cup games are not treated seriously and do not count IMO). They have scored 2 goals in each start, but only won one, that was their home game with Reysol where they were 9-3 on target attempts, 4-2 BC's and 15-7 ITB. I will start by saying I don't really know what to make of all this as Cerezo are not, or at least were not, a gung ho offensive minded team they played quite defensively and on the break and with great success and my notes from a game last September explain much of this ..............
Cerezo came from behind to beat Marinos 2-1 , it was a funny old game, but very typical of both teams, with YFM creating a lot of chances, but Cerezo being far more ruthless with those they did come up with. The decisive moment of the game, at least on paper,was the dismissal of Makito Ito for a professional foul midway through the second half, but the game had long since turned , Cerezo had already equalised and were getting on top with some very imaginative and creative play. They are now 23-6-6 in their last 35 league starts which is more than a full season and still they do not get full credit for their abilities.
They won that (away to Kobe) 1-0 but the scoreline doesn't tell the full story, they played away to a decent team who are very comfortable in possession for 62 minutes a man short, they allowed Kobe just two attempts of note and scored the winner when reduced to 10 players.
They did run out of steam late last season, but it was an incredible run up to that point. Much credit has to go to head coach Miguel Angel Lotina, but he announced he was off and has actually joined Shimizu S-Pulse which gives today some added spice. He will obviously know the home players well and he has made a decent start at SSP where much rebuilding needed to be done, but I will discuss that project on another day. Today it is Cerezo, they went with what they know and reappointed Levir Culpi as head coach for the FOURTH time, he is very offensive minded, which I guess is the easy explanation for the change in style and was wildly successful in his last two stints here, with the team averaging well over 1.7 points pg across almost 300 starts, let's give that some context it is good for 58-59 points per season which we can call 5th place, across around eight seasons worth of games , pretty decent !
The two Cerezo losses were away to FCT and champions Kawasaki Frontale and Culpi is perhaps the only coach in Japan who would go to Frontale and look to go toe to toe with them and it almost paid off in a 3-2 loss, it was the same scoreline in Tokyo where again Cerezo led. We can expect them to improve at seeing out those kinds of games and they meet weaker opposition today, but SSP will get chances. Goals, BTS, Cerezo to win !
Cerezo came from behind to win 2-1 and missed three BC's including an injury time penalty which would have given the scoreline an even more emphatic and fairer look .
Yokohama are pointless through three starts, with a 2-9 goal difference and have lost that trio of games even before they have begun, conceding 8 first half goals . With Cerezo scoring twice in each game of four starts , having led in three at half time and with five first half goals, it is easy to see all trends continuing and for the visitors to lead at the break and after 90 minutes , as they did in this fixture last season.
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