clubgowi /GOWI is now ten years and almost two weeks old and it is time to stop birthday talk and end all the "offers". Today I want to do something a little different , below are yesterday's two (rather basic) subscriber previews and I want to discuss them in a little more depth, explaining the set up, reasoning and uses for our previews. I will leave them with you for a while and return in a few hours with some analysis of the analysis !
Championship: Nottingham Forest- Brighton
Nottingham Forest are in freefall and were absolutely dire in their last home start, a 3-0 loss to Brentford, both teams were nervous there early, but the home crowd was offering almost no support and both fans and players were pretty much waiting to concede ! Once the mighty, mighty Bees took the lead, already brittle Forest confidence crumbled and they were never going to launch a come back, or but up much resistance.They have taken just 4 points from a possible 30 since early February when they were in 10th spot and now sit in 20th, just nine points ahead of the drop zone, without a permanent head coach and giving thanks to the footballing gods that the bottom three in the Championship are so poor !
Brighton did us a small favour at Birmingham last Tuesday ahead of which I wrote ........
Hosts are without a win in four and have taken maximum points from only 2 of ten starts, they have failed to score in half of those and managed just a single goal in the other five outings and a lack of ambition and goals, has made them a very difficult team to watch this season. That is no criticism of head coach Gary Rowett who has done a fine, maybe even miraculous job in very difficult circumstances at St Andrews to not only keep his team in the division, but to flirt with the playoff places. He has had no option but to play to his team's strengths such as they are , but pleasing on the eye they are not ! That dalliance with the top six appears over now sitting ninth, eight points of the pace, they do have a game in hand, so three today would keep the dream alive a little longer and normally you would expect them to gamble and go all out for the points, but I would not bet on that with the Blues.
Brighton are now known for their offensive prowess either , but are unbeaten in seven and have scored 13 goals in that sequence which is 0.57 goals per game more than they have managed for the rest of the season and they took points from the two games in which they failed to score and that is very much their gameplan, keep things tight and look to steal a goal on the break, especially away from home. Two teams with a very similar style and approach, only that Brighton do it a little better !They are a point shy of Middlesbrough (who have a GIH) in second and four adrift of leaders Burnley and are still very much in the automatic promotion picture, they are ten clear of Cardiff City in 7th with 7 rounds to play and look booked for a post season spot at worse and there is really no point in them not going all out for the win and to put some pressure on the top two . Brighton have perhaps the easiest remaining schedule of the top clubs before going to Boro on the final day of the season and their aim, surely, has to be to stay in touch until then.I have all the time in the world for visiting boss Chris Hughton who is probably too nice a bloke for football management and no one would deserve another promotion more.
City main striker and second top scorer Clayton Donaldson has scored only three goals in the last seven months and top scorer midfielder Jon Toral (eight goals and four assists) is a major doubt,, the pair, like Hughton are former Brentford players and I know them all well, Donaldson is in the driest spell of his career and Toral has been carrying the line, which is not his game at all. Kyle Lafferty was brought in on loan to help the goal threat, but he has yet to kick a ball and is again a doubt and things look difficult for the home team.
The visitors won that 2-1 and stayed very focused after conceding early, they are now 12 clear of 7th placed Cardiff City, with this game in hand, that is pretty much guaranteed top 6 now , as the Bluebirds only have five left to play ( and one is at Griffin Park !), so it will be all about three points for Brighton with nothing to lose and everything to gain by gambling. They are five points adrift of leaders Burnley with a GIH and four behind Middlesbrough, whom they have still to play, so a huge chance of automatic promotion if they win this evening, but things will be very difficult if they come up short. Brighton entertain Fulham on Friday night and by winning both, they will really be cranking up the pressure, especially on Burnley, who do not play again until Saturday.
Chris Hughton's team were very professional at St Andrews and were worthy of a bigger margin of victory and the signing of Jiri Skalak in the transfer window looks very good business indeed and might be what gets them over the line, he delivers a peach of a dead ball and now that he is getting up to speed with the Championship (which is never easy) he is producing and has three assists in his last two outings and four in just 293 minutes of second tier football. If Forest play like they did against the Bees and in losing 2-1 to Reading subsequently ( it should have been 4-1) this can only end one way and the hosts need to seriously up their game to get anything out of tonight, but runs like this are incredibly hard to address and are self-perpetuating .
1.5 units Brighton -0.5 ball 2.13 asian line/Sportmarket.
Ligue 2: AS Nancy- US Creteil
Second against second from bottom and 30 points separate these two. Nancy have made hard work of things over the last couple of months after looking likely to have had promotion done and dudsted by now and had a bit of a late mid season defensive blip, however they have kept cleansheets in 3 of their last four starts, taking seven points from promotion rivals Lens, Red Star and Dijon and look back to their miserly early campaign ways which saw them concede just 13 goals in their opening 21 games. They probably have the strongest defence in the division and only leaders Dijon and (gung-ho) Clermont have scored more, which is a serious and hard to beat combination. They are four points clear of the teams are level in 3rd and 4th, with this game in hand and travel to meet one of those on Friday, so three points would not only give them a seven point advantage, but would take much of the pressure off that trip to Le Havre.
Creteil are now three points from safety and have lost their way and been in freefall since October since when they are 1-7-12, their sole win in that sequence came in their last away start, a 3-1 win at Nimes, which looks impressive and might have heralded a resurgence, but a 3-0 home loss to Clermont last time out kind of sent everyone back to the drawing board. They have a much easier game on paper on Friday, a visit from Auxerre and with the Monday-Friday turnaround difficult to deal with, thoughts could quickly turn to that and a first goal for Nancy could quickly become two or three. Creteil are 0-1-9 in their last ten starts against top 9 teams ( 0-0-5 on the road), in those five away defeats they actually led in two and were not trailing at the 40 minute mark in any, they held out for almost 30 minutes in the reverse fixture with Nancy which they eventually lost 3-0 and it is easy to see a repeat, the hosts winning but it maybe taking a while for them to assert their superiority.
Nancy have scored 11 goals in their last five home starts, but only one came inside 43 minutes and even that took 25 and I am sure we can improve upon the currently quote of -1 ball 1.84 and no one ever backed a loser by waiting !
1.5 units Nancy -1 ball once the "in running" line reaches 2.10 + as long as they are not already leading and we are playing 11 v 11.
Nancy : Ndy Assembe, Menay, Chrétien, Cétout, Diagne, Lenglet, Muratori, Badila, Aït Bennasser, Lusamba, Guidileye, Pedretti, Coulibaly, Puyo, Dalé, Robic, Hadji, Busin.
Créteil : Kerboriou, Merville, Barrillon, Di Bartolomeo, Diedhiou, Hérelle, Ilunga, Mahon de Monaghan, Dias, Gérard, Lafon, Mollet, Petshi, Andriatsima, Dabo, Niakaté.
Good Luck.
