Arsenal need to focus on defensive issues not VAR!
Feb 15, 2023
Premier League: Arsenal- Manchester City
| 2022/23 | Overall | Home | Away | |||||||||||||||||||||
| P | W | D | L | F | A | Gdf | Pts | Form | P | W | D | L | F | A | P | W | D | L | F | A | ||||
| 1 | Arsenal | 21 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 46 | 18 | +28 | 51 | XLWW | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 26 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 7 | ||
| 2 | Manchester City | 22 | 15 | 3 | 4 | 56 | 22 | +34 | 48 | WLWW | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 41 | 13 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 9 | ||
Arsenal are now three games without a win with only one goal scored and have kept just three clean sheets in 18 home starts. They are coming off a 1-1 home draw with Brentford on Saturday and the Gunners' part of my notes for that read like this..........
Arsenal are the best team in the EPL (probably) , but they have lost their last two starts without scoring, both 1-0, at Manchester City in the FA Cup (which would not have overly concerned the Gunners I assume) and at struggling Everton and that was an entirely different matter. At Goodison Park they lost BC's 4-0 and looked vulnerable from pretty much every cross into their box. The Bees are unbeaten in nine EPL starts and have conceded just once in five games (Liverpool, when already 2-0 up) and starting games strongly, being a combined 8-0 up at the break in their six starts since Christmas. They are also strong aerially ( winning most aerial duels in the EPL) and are very good from set pieces (creating the second most chances from dead ball situations) and inventive*, where Ben Mee, Ethan Pinnock (1.94m) and Ivan Toney all pose a threat, the same goes for Kristoffer Ajer (1.98m) if the visitors go with, as seems likely, five at the back today, which is often how they line up against the stronger teams. Brentford are 7th this morning, but are placed higher on all xP tables and have the game to trouble the Gunners, especially on the break and from any set pieces and, this is a good one, only Man City have had more attempts inside the six yard box in away games than the Bees.
In the last 12 months Arsenal have played 17 home games, they are a mighty fine 14-1-2 through those , but have kept just three clean sheets , conceding exactly one goal on nine occasions ( with both teams scoring in 13) and two goals five times (never more) .
I will, in the interest of fairness, say a few words about the reverse fixture which Arsenal won 3-0, they were the best team by far to visit Lionel Road this season and the only one to come away with all three points. However, and you knew there was going to be an "however", it was a very odd, almost surreal game, played in an unusual and sombre atmosphere. It was a very early kick off on the day before the Queen's funeral and a game unlike any other and a very subdued crowd, that is not what it is usually like at Lionel Road, or Griffin Park before that. It has to be said that pubs are very much part of the football experience for many (not all) in the UK and that goes double at Brentford and a stone cold sober crowd always makes for an odd experience. The better team won for sure and easily, but Arsenal will have more to beat today and the Gunners were at their peak for that and signs that they might not be at the same level right now, one or two players look like they could do with a rest and I have to repeat what I said recently .....
Arsenal did fade at the end of last season with 15 points from their final 10 games, losing to four teams who finished bottom half of the table and the Gunners will be mindful and wary of that and young squads can lose confidence as quickly as they find it and they are the youngest in the EPL by some way.
This will doubtless seem rather foolish come 17:00 today, but I cannot stop myself...........this feels like a good matchup for Brentford right now and I would not rule out the upset away win.
* Everton had a lot of joy last week with crosses played deep to the back post, this is a tactic the Bees used to use a lot, with Pinnock peeling off and winning almost every first ball, I have not seen much of it recently, but suspect it will have been worked on at the Jersey Road training pitches in build up.
The game finished 1-1 a lot has been written and said about the Brentford equaliser which, I admit, should not have stood , however, I find it amazing that little has been said about the fact that Brentford could/should have scored 2-3 goals, winning xG 2.0-1.5, BC's 3-1 and hitting the woodwork when it was much easier to score . Even less about the events leading up to the Bees goal, you can see the main highlights on this very short video, in the build up to the equaliser (goal at 1:21) the visitors were first to SIX balls in and around the penalty box in extended play, including FOUR uncontested headers . That is unacceptable defending and on the back of what we saw at Goodison Park is worrying for Arsenal supporters, it would certainly concern me. As would the fact that Mikel Arteta prefers to talk about bad luck/wrong decisions with VAR.
City are not the first team you think of launching an aerial bombardment on anyone, but they have scored the third most headed goals in the EPL, attempted the second most corners and the most crosses, so have that in the bank as an option, maybe a big one. They certainly went down that route on Saturday in their 3-1 win over Aston Villa (extended highlights), 1:12 City corner, goal Rodri in a pre planned routine, 3:00 corner resulting in a volley which just missed, 3:18 corner City won first header and Haaland missed a sitter . In total they created five attempts from set piece situations.
The two teams are yet to meet in the league, they are scheduled to do so at the Etihad at the end of April, so with a win tonight, City would actually have matters in their own hands. City did win a very cagey FA Cup meeting at the Etihad 1-0 just 19 days ago, but a lot has happened at Arsenal subsequently and plenty of that giving cause for concern. I suspect that the Gunners would take a draw now and retain that three point advantage.
My thinking is that the draw might offer best value and it is a result which both teams could probably live with and I would not try to put anyone off backing that, but this Arsenal defending is a real concern and I cannot get that out of my mind, also, City have dominated the Gunners, winning the last 10 h2h league meetings ( five home and five away) by a combined 26-3!
2 units Manchester City -0.5 ball 2.42 asian line.
Good luck!
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