Sports have very different schedules from each other and athletes prepare in varying ways to peak on game/match/event day.

 

We often discuss the benefits of having an extra day or more to prepare for games and I would like to look at the advantages of that and how the time could be used , some of which might be unconsidered or under valued by bettors.

 

The NFL tries to avoid scheduling teams on a short week against those with longer to prepare, but it does happen occasionally and is a big advantage to the better rested team in such a physically demanding sport, doubly so when the team handling the quicker turnaround also has to travel, which is never done quickly or easily in the NFL.

 

Quick turnarounds and lengthy road trips are the norm in the NBA and any disadvantage this throws up is almost always factored into odds. It is not unheard of for teams to be asked to play five straight road games, in five different cities, inside six days (it happened this season). But less account is given to teams who, facing back to back games, have an easy win the night before, racing into a big half time (or early third quarter) lead and able to make heavy use of bench players to see out the game.

 

Tennis might seem like it is a level playing field and players who go deep one week (or fortnight) and who are scheduled to play the next tournament, are usually given a day or two off, before their first match. But they are still at a significant disadvantage, as it means their next tournament is condensed, they will have had limited time to get used to the new courts and might have made a lengthy trip across multiple time zones to play on a very different surface. This can be the case even if the surface is "officially" the same, Indian Wells and the Miami Open play back to back on hard courts, but the two surfaces are vastly different and the bounce in Indian Wells imitates a clay court. The two venues are also a six hour flight apart, across three time zones and require a 13-14 hour transit time. Players very happy on a faster court who have exited Indian Wells early will doubtless fly to Miami immediately, might have had an extra week to get used to the conditions (hotter, more humid) , speed ,bounce and time difference, it is a huge advantage, are these players better rested, yes,  better prepared, almost certainly.  After Miami the tour traditionally switches to European clay and after Roland Garros immediately (the next day) to grass, with little time to adjust and this can throw up some great betting opportunities, giving those with extra time to make the adjustment a real advantage.

 

World class golfers usually base their season around the main tournaments, they know they will be qualified to play in these premium events by virtue of their PGA ranking, whilst the journeyman golfer will be busting a gut just to make the field. This makes for a more settled schedule and the already elite players have an advantage in rest and preparedness. It is common for them to arrive 7-10 days in advance of a big tournament and in some cases also visit the course briefly a month or two beforehand, just to see what has changed and consider how best to prepare, learn or relearn the vagaries of the "new" course. Their rest is self imposed and gives them a big edge in addition to their ability advantage. If we look at recent majors, the last 10 US Masters winners have all been ranked top 30 in the World going into the event, six of the last ten US Open winners have been ranked #1 in the world during their career, 7 of the last 8 Open Championship winners have been ranked top 6 in the world at some stage with five inside the top 2, 5 of the last 6 PGA Championship winners have been former or current world number ones. Those are the premium events, but the elite players have a similar edge at most tournaments, if only because they are choosing to play and not doing so because they are desperate to earn enough simply to retain their playing privileges.

 

In football (soccer if you absolutely must !), it is very common for one team to have had an extra 1-4 days to rest and prepare and the advantages of that are obvious. Oddsmakers* know this of course, but the factors about why even an additional 24 hours could be huge and maybe on a quick turnaround for both teams offer the biggest edge of all, are perhaps not given enough value/consideration. If one team has five days and the other seven between games, I think the advantage is minimal, if it is three and four, then more of an edge and the difference between 2 and 3 is massive in my opinion. Teams with that extra 24 hours over such a short period can opt to use the time to rest and recover of course, but more likely to fit in a full training session, their opponent can do little apart from take the limited time available to recover and maybe do some video analysis. They are at a big disadvantage, with what happens on the training pitches undervalued and hugely important, teams do not invest big money in these training centres without good reason and you will often hear a coach comment on "how well training has gone this week", but rarely someone, apart from me, mention it in a betting preview !

 

Also, the further up the footballing pyramid you go, the better conditioned and looked after the players are, they are the thoroughbreds of the world they dominate and almost always play in bigger and stronger squads, with top teams far better suited to handling a quick turnaround and that applies within divisions too and not just from one league to another. For example, with the Big 6 clubs in the Premier League and, in Brazil, where games come thick and fast (38 Serie A games in circa 28 weeks, plus Copa do Brasil and international competitions which 70% of all top flight teams qualify for) and clubs asked to regularly travel huge distances (Porto Alegre to Fortaleza is an 8,000 km round trip) and to play some games in hot, humid conditions in remote parts of the country which few enjoy . I speak often in Brazil about the edge this gives the top teams and for others, who have lower ambitions (survival ?) having to "pick their battles" during these multiple three games inside 8 days sequences.

 

 

* Oddsmakers is a term we still use, but nowadays lines open early in asian markets with restricted limits and are adjusted as money is bet, it is these movements which set the matchday lines, come day of the game, odds/lines are reasonably stable, but doesn't mean they are "correct" or do not still offer value and at this time you can bet more and at better margins, but that discussion is for another day.

 

 

Good Luck !