Brazil Serie A: Atlético Paranaense- Santa Cruz
My notes on Atletico's loss at Internacional in mid week mainly focused on the host, but did include ..........They (Inter) won that 1-0 via a goal just before the hour mark and followed up with a impressive win by the same scoreline at strong home side Santos at the weekend. They scored very late there, but it was fully deserved and probably one of the best road performances you will see in Brazil this season, they were very competitive, won virtually every 50/50, allowed Santos few chances and could have been three up before they took the lead. Inter are 8-2-0 at home to Atletico and three points this evening will take them top and put pressure on current joint-leader Gremio who face a tough trip to Palmeiras tomorrow.
AP's form tailed off after a strong start last season and they have won just 9 of their last 32 league starts and that is bottom 5-6 form , so their current position of 16th, even at this early stage, doesn't look particularly false. They host Santa Cruz this weekend and that match is far more win-able and they do not want to waste too much energy chasing a lost cause this evening , we can expect them to play with that game in mind and maybe even with some rotation, but they do have pretty much a fully fit squad to choose from. They lost 4-0 to Palmeiras on opening day, the only "top" team they have faced so far, they got very physical after falling behind and were fortunate to only get one man sent off, they were already three down at that stage and will need a lot to go their way this evening to get anything out of this.
AP actually started that game on the front foot and agressively, looking to take the game to Inter and should have taken the lead early, hitting the woodwork, they then conceded a hotly disputed goal (the arguments went on for about five minutes while a player was being treated) and I expected them to wilt after that, but they did not. They were just as physical as they were at Palmeiras, but remianed competitive and this was a game they probably felt they should not have lost.
All four points they have taken so far have come at home and they probably need all three tonight to haul themselves out of the drop zone after this round of games. They have tough rough trips to Sao Paulo and Ponte Preta up next and have to be all guns blazing for the win. Santa Cruz suffered their first defeat of the season in midweek, losing 1-0 at home to Sport Recife, they did not rotate, using the same 11 starters from the last league game and you just cannot do that in Serie B, where the competition is tough and matches come thick and fast. They looked tired, created little, gave the ball away a lot, won few second balls and played a ridiculously high defensive line that Sport got in behind far too often.
AP felt they created a lot of good chances in their two starts before the trip to Inter, at home to Figueirense ( 2-1 win) and 2-1 road loss to Botafogo, they are quite upbeat about their play in all games since the opening day defeat and just feel they need to be more clinical in front of goal. They rotated their squad and rested five starters for the trip in Inter, still remained competitive and can really freshen up the eleven today.
They should win this.
1.5 units Atlético Paranaense -0.75 ball 2.07 asian line/Sportmarket .
Good Luck.
