Brazil: Serie A betting tip .......
Jun 09, 2022
Brazil: Serie A :Coritiba- Sao Paulo
Coritiba had clocked up a lot of air miles over the weekend with that long trip and unexpected point at Ceara ............
Coritiba made the notes last month when they made the short trip to play a fellow Serie A newcomer in Avai......
These two clubs were promoted back to the top flight last season and with very similar records and both currently sit on 7 points and a 2-1-1 record through four starts, albeit with a very different goal difference , a respective 4-5 and 9-6. XGD suggests that the visitors are a little better than that and offensively, in what has become an increasingly low scoring league ( we have not seen an average of over 2.5 for the season since 2011 !), they look very interesting. Not just 9 goals, but 2.5 BC's created per game and also a little better defensively than six goals conceded suggests. They also did the double over Avai last season (2-1 here and 2-0 in the home tie) and also did it the last time the two were in the same Brasileirao league and by a combined 8-1.
The visitors trained early yesterday morning and then set off early for the very short (in Brazilian terms) trip to Florianopolis, with a large and very attack heavy squad, including all 11 starters from last week's 3-2 win over Fluminense, since when Coritiba have had a free 8 days to prepare solely for this game, add in the limited travel and it has been an opportunity not just to work on things , but to also rest up a little with some very busy weeks ahead, with the schedule in Brazilian football, simply relentless. To highlight that, Coritiba's head coach Gustavo Morinigo has been in charge for less than 16 months and has overseen 82 games already, just crazy !
In all competitions Coritiba have scored in their last 13 starts (9 wins), with 2+ goals in eight and three or more in five. When they won here last season they totally dominated the game after the break and should have won by 2-3-4 goals instead of 2-1 . Avai have given up an average of 2.22 xGA in their last three starts and surely more chances for the visitors today.
They lost that 2-1 and two subsequent away starts, 3-0 at Santos in the Copa do Brasil and 2-0 at Atletico Goianiense , the road struggles have started and they are a very long way from home tonight (almost 7,000 km round trip) and Fortaleza is some 12-13 degrees hotter than Curitiba and very different conditions than which they have got used to recently. They also left without ever present right back Matheus Alexandre and striker and top scorer (4 goals) Leo Gamalho and the veteran from man was also top scorer last season with 16 goals, RB always seems one of those problem positions and hard not to see these as two big absences.
It was a very good point and a deserved one, but chances at both ends and for the third Coritiba game running, both teams created at least 1.4 xGF and I would be surprised if we did not see more of the same this evening and at least one goal for each team. SP and their recent trip to Avai was covered in some detail yesterday and that game should have been a mini shoot out, well, it was really, just one with only two goals instead what should have been 4 or 5! Goals today!
2.25 units "over" 2.5 goals 2.45 asian line.
Good luck!
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