Brazil: Serie A betting tip: Bahia- Fortaleza
Sep 15, 2019
Brazil: Serie A: Bahia- Fortaleza
Bahia are a team we have done very well with and prior to a recent trip to defending champions Palmeiras I wrote ..........
Bahia are a good team, much improved in my opinion and after a mini blip are back on track with three clean sheets in a row and coming off a fine 3-0 defeat of a good Flamengo side last week. In early season I spoke about their form and potential.....................
These two met in this exact fixture on Sunday, it finished 0-0, Sao Paulo created little of note, at least inside the box and were restricted to long range efforts, one did hit the post, but only via a deflection and they are misfiring and i have some issues with them. Bahia got into the SP area FAR too easily and the movement of the visiting forwards was too slick and quick for the home backline and defenders were losing their man time and time again. Bahia might have won by 2-3 goals and that was without consideration to the late dismissal of young forward Jonas Toro who looked SP's liveliest player up to that point. Bahia stayed in SP rather than making the long trip home, I expect them to field as close a starting 11 as possible to the weekend, two players are unavailable, one is cup tied, the other suspended, but that is counterbalanced a little by the return of right-back Nino Paraíba from suspension.
Last week I wrote ........... Cup games are taken seriously in Brazil and final stages are almost exclusively played out between top teams. Last five seasons have seen the 20 semi finalists comprise of 16 who finished top ten that season, including 8 who made the top 10, Cruzeiro did so 4 times, Flamengo on three occasions and most of the other big clubs twice, all at least once apart from Atletico Paranaense, they have finished between 3rd and 11th in Serie A each year since 2013, but have barely won a Copa game in the last 5 seasons, going out very early twice and at their first stage on three occasions, they did make the last 8 in 2017, but played a lower level team in the R16. They travel all the way up to Fortaleza where they have already lost this season. Anyway, you need to look at team news, but CAP are vulnerable and the big teams will almost certainly do well. Home advantage is not as strong and fewer draws than you would expect, 40 R16 first leg games in five season have seen 42.5 % homes, 37.5% aways and 20% draws. 19 went "over" 2.5 goals, 21 under.
SP are the bigger team and you would expect them to progress, however, two things, home wins are not as common in Copa and whilst I don't want to make any hard and fast decisions yet and they are unbeaten after five games, I don't think SP are very good ! They should have lost to Bahia and have only put in one really good performance so far (Flamengo 1-1 ) and might have lost that ! Having just re-watched the match from Sunday (you can see brief highlights here), I cannot agree with the odds tonight and have to side with Bahia in some way.
I have been waiting for them to refind that level and I have to take them at these odds now that they have, Bahia would only have lost with this handicap start in 1/8 visits to Palmeiras and it looks the way to go with Bahia proving difficult to score against once more and the host slightly misfiring and missing a key defender.
They drew that 2-2 and have taken 10 points from four subsequent away wins, including victories along with cleansheets away to AMG and Vasco , they are up to 7th , have no real pressure on them, as top 10 would be a great achievement, but looking to secure Copa Libertadores football for next season which would be a very big deal indeed. They have six clean sheets in 8 starts, have conceded the fewest goals outside the top 5 and are improving greatly defensively, conceding 8 goals less than at this same stage last season, without compromising their offensive threat, infact, they have scored a goal more than after 18 starts in 2018. Fortaleza are newly promoted and will be pleased with their 21 point haul and 6 point buffer over the drop zone, with survival their only aim for the campaign. The trip down to Lauro Freitas will be amongst the shortest of the season for them, which at 1,200 km seems crazy, but Fortaleza is a long way from everywhere, this is a game a team with top 6 aspirations should be winning and Bahia to take the spoils for me.
Hosts are well run, have to sell, but always seem to recruit strongly and have a manager in Roger Machado who is used to being at big name clubs, keeping 9 goal Gilberto was key and if they finish top 6, they might be able to refuse more offers next season 12th -11th in the last two campaigns and a club on the up and team improving year on year. Good sign of a well coached team are the half time adjustments and Bahia have conceded just 2 goals all season in the opening 30 minutes of the second half, a time when goals are traditionally scored.
1.75 units Bahia -1 ball 2.21 asian line/Sportmarket.
Good Luck.
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