Brazil: Serie A betting tip: Sao Paulo- Vasco Da Gama
Nov 28, 2019
Brazil: Serie A: Sao Paulo- Vasco Da Gama
I have previewed Vasco's last two starts, both draws 4-4 versus Flamengo and 1-1 with Goias ............
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I sided with Vasco for their big derby game with soon to be crowned champions Flamengo last Wednesday ..............
The Clássico dos Milhões is one of the biggest derby games in Brazil and will be the last Rio derby for either team this season. Champions elect Flamengo have a 10 point lead at the top of the table and an awesome home record, going 31-3-4 here in their last 38 starts in the league, which is an astonishing 81.58% win rate. Of those 31 wins, 19 have come along with a clean sheet, 10 by conceding a single goal and two with two goals allowed and, 21 by 2+ , meaning that they have won 55.26% of those 38 games by at least two goals. That suggests they are value today at odds of close to evens to win by 2, but we have a lot more to consider.
First up, this is that big derby game and form often goes out of the window in these and one of those 7 games Fla failed to win in that incredible sequence was a 1-1 draw with Vasco last season, also, there is that 10 point lead and Flamengo do not need to win, as long as they keep ticking over they will be crowned champions in the next couple of weeks and it would need two wins for Fla (today and away to Gremio, a very tough fixture, on Sunday) , combined with a loss for Palmeiras, to get it all done this weekend . Further, Vasco are decent on the road , a 5-5-6 away record and only 17 goals conceded is very good for a mid table team in Serie A and comfortably the best outside the Copa Libertadores places. Above all else and, this is hanging over Flamengo like the Sword of Damocles, is the Copa Libertadores final with defending champions River Plate in 10 days time, which will now take place in Lima, Peru, the original venue of Santiago in Chile having been officially changed just two days ago. That means a lot of plans being altered and a six hour flight from Rio, but I guess the clubs knew this was likely for some time.
Anyway, a very tough build up to that for Flamengo with a fierce derby today against a rival who will offer no quarter and then the two hour flight dwn to Porto Alegre to face a Gremio team out for revenge after Fla beat them 5-0 in the Copa semi final second leg in Rio just three weeks ago. They know that River Plate will be fresher and just asked just to play one game in build up and the Argentine side will doubtless rotate for that and look only towards the final, Fla seem unlikely to do likewise, as incredible as that might sound. Head Coach Jorge Jesus has simply refused to rest players and apart from veteran full backs Rafinha and Filipe Luis being allowed the occasional game off, it has been full strength almost every game and has it has worked so well, it is difficult to see him changing that policy at this late stage. I can understand it for tonight, but surely there has to be some temptation to mix things up on Sunday in a game where the opposition feels hurt and humiliated and it would not take much to see the contest boil over. Anyway, regardless of what Jesus decides, a Copa Libertadores final is a big thing and once in a lifetime, if they are lucky, for most players . It is only the second ever final for Fla, the other coming in 1981 and no one wants to miss out and that will be at the back, maybe even forefront, of the mind of most players as they take to the field tonight and Sunday.
As strong as Flamengo have been as host, they are now playing their biggest rival and with that fixture directly ahead of their biggest single game in almost four decades ! Also, Vasco have conceded just a single goal in five + games (490+ minutes) on the road ,not conceded more than one goal in 11 straight away games and they have lost just two of 10 of these derbies as the visiting side , conceding only 7 goals total.
Incredibly that finished 4-4 and that makes seven goals for Vasco in two starts, early last month I spoke about their offensive threat writing ............. Vasco have some very talented offensive players who's abilities have not fully been reflected in goals , I was very taken with 17 yo Talles Magno and 20 yo Marrony against Santos, playing as two of the front three , Marrony is available again and I hope they return to the three up top, Talles only turned 17 in June, he is a ridiculous talent, can play anywhere in a front three and I guess, has half of Europe watching his progress, despite playing only 900+ minutes of first team football.
The goals are coming now and Vasco are an interesting and fluid team who can play with a 2 , 3 or even 4 (4-2-4) up top, Talles Magno has been at the U17 World Cup helping Brazil win the tournament, he will be back this week and that should increase competition greatly over the closing weeks of the campaign. Defensively, Vasco are without captain and centre back Leandro Castan today and RB Yago Pikachu ( I kid you not !) which weakens them at the back and they have conceded an extra 0.35 goals in the 14 starts that Castan (who loves a suspension) has missed.
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The most recent was ten days ago, which is like getting a rest for a month in any other country, as the games come so thick and fast in Brazil and I am sure the time will have been well spent. They are unbeaten in three having scored 8 goals in that sequence, four coming versus the best team in South America and they will have more selection options today (see above). Vasco have impressed me quite a lot, after a slow start they have picked up pretty much the same number of points since Matchday 7 as Sao Paulo who are top 6 and if Vasco can keep the core of this squad, they can themselves make a run at the Copa Libertadores places next season. I have had some issues with SP all season, which we discussed a lot around those three (league and cup) games in a week or so with Bahia, they do not score enough and have to sacrifice some offensive play to cover a backline that gives away too many chances without that extra protection. As a result, they have scored just 34 goals (only one team outside the drop zone has scored fewer) and they are the only team amongst the top 9 who have drawn or lost more home games than they have won, of the other 8 , 7 are +3 or better in terms of wins over draws/losses. Vasco have avoided defeat in 11 of 17 on the road, a really good number for a mid table team in this league and they have the 7th best away goal difference.
1.75 units Vasco Da Gama +0.5 ball 2,29 asian line/Sportmarket.
Good Luck.
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