These notes were posted on Wednesday to subscribers and are typical of a "quiet" midweek send out,  results were good , Juventude won 2-1, America 3-2 and Palmeiras 4-0, but it is more about the content and what we are looking for...........usually hungry teams playing better than their opponent and with improvement in them and, to that end, these are good samples.

 

 

 

All teams have between 7-9 games left to play and pretty much everything is not only still up for grabs, but VERY complicated !

 

It should be top six to the Copa Libertadores, teams placed 7-12 to the Copa Sudamericana and the bottom 4 relegated, so there is almost always something at stake in any case, but a Libertatores spot also goes to this year's winners of the competition and the Sudamericana and, they are both all Brazilian finals involving three of the teams placed top 6 already and another to the Copa do Brasil victors and that final involves leaders AMG. The other team involved in both the domestic cup final and CS decider is Atletico Paranaense. So there will be 9 teams from Brazil in the 2022 Copa Libertadores and additional spots available from league placings and those are all likely to go down to the wire.

 

2021 Copa Libertadores final will be played on November 27 and involves Palmeiras-Flamengo.

 

2021 Copa Sudamericana final is between Atletico Paranaense- RB Bragantino on November 20 .

 

Both finals are being played in Montevideo , Uruguay.

 

The Copa do Brasil decider is between Atletico Mineiro and Atletico Paranaense and will be played home and away on December 12th and 15th.

 

For my stating the obvious comment of the day, no one wants to be relegated and everyone would like to play Copa Libertadores. I used to think that teams were not overly bothered by Copa Sudamericana football , but it offers a route into the bigger competition and Brazilian clubs just seem to love to play football, contest an enormous amount of games and pretty much appear to do their best in all.

 

However, the biggest motivation has to be to play CL and to avoid relegation, but right now and until the picture clears , it is almost impossible to rule anyone out of contention for the former, but we will definitely return to this in the coming weeks.

 

 

 

 

The visitors are in top 6 contention (currently 7th) and since their return from B , have finished top 3 in two of the three seasons, but look to have fallen from that level and xP places them 14th. Their form has tailed off, especially on the road, in recent weeks and they have scored just once in six away starts and not at all in the last four through which they have averaged just 0.6 xGF per game. They have also had some discipline issues and have had a man sent off in 3/5 starts.

 

Juventude were always likely to struggle in their first season back in the top flight for 13 years and they are 5 points from safety, but with a game in hand, xP places them 16th (which is that target position)  not too far adrift of Inter and Juve's last two home games (both 0-0 draws) offer hope statistically . They were a combined 11-2 on target, 4-2 BC's and 26-10 (really good number) for ITB and 4.04-1.37 on xG, in fact, they have been a combined 9.55- 3.62 for xG in their last five home starts, with an average xGD of almost 1.2 pg in their favour.

 

Juventude go to basement club Chapecoense at the weekend and then host Fluminense, all three fixtures offer points and it feels like a season-defining (saving ?) seven days coming up. They are overdue some good fortune in front of goal for sure and we can take a chance on that coming tonight against a "name" but underperforming road opponent at good odds.

 

Left sided midfielder /winger Patrick is suspended for the visitors, they have played poorly in his absence, losing both away games he has sat out in 2021and drawing 0-0 at home to Cuiaba in the third, they are 1-2-5 since the start of last season without him.

 

 

 

 

 

Sport's need is great, as they are , like Juventude , 5 points from safety, but they have played two games more and it is difficult to find the same good numbers from which to suggest there is hope, in fact, the reverse is true. They are ranked 18th for xP and in one recent game they were a net -31 for total attempts. -15 on target - 24 ITB and -13 saves with their goalkeeper earning hero status and regardless of opposition, or venue, those are shameful numbers.

 

America made the early season notes when after a seven game winless start I noted ..........

 

 

Since writing that they have gone 9-8-6 across 23 starts, which equates to 58 points over a full season which would have been good for top 7 in each of the last five seasons (7-7-7-5-6) and they are currently 5th for xP, so fair to say that top 7 is about their level. They are currently 12th, but a top 8-9 finish is well within their grasp and capabilities and might earn that huge prize we started the notes by discussing. They are coming off a 1-0 derby loss to leaders A-MG, but no shame in that and America have not lost back to back games since July and their last three defeats (18 starts) have all been to top 7 teams.

 

 

1.75 units America MG -0.5 ball 2.62 asian line.

 

 

 

 

Palmeiras have 10 points to make up on leaders AMG which is a very tall order with 8 rounds left to play, but have still to host Atletico in 14 days time and will want to at least keep the dream alive until then. They have won their last five starts and also "won" BC's (11-2 total), ITB (55-21) and xG 10.4-4.1 (not giving up more that xGA of 0.96), it is difficult to win all 15 categories in a league as tight and tough as Serie A, so it highlights their ability and current level of play. A-Go are 13th, but xP places them 19th and on the road, they should have conceded an additional 0.9 goals per game. This is their third straight road game (8-9,000 km travelled by kick off and a lot of time in transit) and in their last two away starts they are a net 5-13 for on target, 1-7 BC's , 9-25 ITB attempts and 1.4-5.7 xG. Palmeiras won the reverse fixture 3-0 and something similar feels likely.

 

 

 

 

Good luck !