Bundesliga betting tip: Arminia Bielefeld - RB Leipzig
Mar 19, 2021
Bundesliga: Arminia Bielefeld - RB Leipzig
Four weeks ago today I previewed Bielefeld- Wolfsburg ...............
Wolfsburg come out between 5th-7th in all statistical categories and that is about where I would rank them, they have overperformed to date and will have to continue to do so to stay above Leverkusen, Dortmund and BMG but the incentive is big to do so and this is the kind of game they have performed best in. They are 4-2-0 in their last six games away to non Champions League teams , scoring 2 goals in each of five of those and keeping five clean sheets. Also, their last five game BC stats really highlight their tight at the back, efficient style.
Bielefeld will doubtless be buoyed by that 3-3 draw at Bayern on Monday, but that gives them 27 hours less recovery time, add in the travel to Munich and back (1,000 km) and that they had to battle hard in really tough weather and surely the visitors will strip the fresher today. Bayern missed 4 BC's in that game and on another day, almost any, would have found a 4th or 5th goal and/or not conceded all 3 BC's they gave up . Credit to Arminia, but let's not get too carried away just yet. They have given up an average of 3.5 BC's per game across their last four starts and 2.95 this season, Wolfsburg 1.95 for the season and 0.6 over their last 5 outings. The point at Bayern also came at cost, with RW Ritsu Doan picking up an injury which might keep him sidelined for a month or so, he has been ever present this season with 3 goals and 3 assists which is a big contribution to a side who had only scored 15 in 19 starts before Monday and five of that contribution came from just 10 home goals (50%).
The visitors have lost just one first half all season ( 8-12-1) so a great chance that they can get a toehold in this game and certainly avoid the issues Bayern had early in the game .
The Wolves led 1-0 at half time and won 3-0, since writing those notes Bielefeld went four games without scoring, with a 0-8 goal difference and seven of those goals conceded coming in the second half, before a 2-1 win at a Leverkusen side in 6th place, but having all kinds of problems in 2021. We cannot read too much into that and the pre Christmas Leverkusen side would have scored 3-4 goals in that game.
Leipzig can close to within a point of Bayern tonight and host the reigning European and domestic champions next time out and surely they will want to go into the international break with that fixture ideally set up.
Bielefeld have been level at half time in 7 of 13 home starts (53.85%) and Leipzig in 6 of 12 on the road (50%) so half time draw odds today of 2.74 (36.5%) have to be worthy of consideration and seem overpriced looking at the stats and given that RBL do tend to get things done on the road after the break, with an 8-2-2 second half record and 12-3 goal difference ranking them #1 in the Bundesliga.
Lots of ways you could approach this, including the half time draw, draw HT/Leipzig FT double result, backing the visitors at half time.
Bielefeld have conceded 13 goals after the break in 6 starts against top 5 teams, 2+ in five of those.
Good luck !
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