Obviously I am writing ahead of this round of fixtures, so touch wood when I say that the Bundesliga coverage since the restart has been wildly successful, we had one awful day , but have won most days there were games, made a huge circa 30% ROI and put up other bets which won at odds of 4.60, 3.60, 2.62, 2.50 which are not included in those numbers and all that from just 37 games. I think the time available and depth I was able to look at games helped me personally and the notes enormously and I have given this a lot of thought and to be honest, it has been a bit of an eye opener and might set the tone for how the newsletter is set out in the future.

 

 

 

 

I didn't think I was likely to be writing this anytime soon, but I was really impressed with BMG last weekend when they defeated Union Berlin 4-1, they might have beaten a team a little short of energy and struggling for form, but they played with great spirit, invention and attacking intent and Alassane Pléa was sensational. Having said all that, they remain on negative ITB numbers for the season and for their last 9 starts, but even that -5 total is still good for 8th place and gives them a +39 advantage over Freiburg and BMG also have an additional 4 points edge on XP and the home side should have conceded an extra 14 goals and BMG scored 6-7 more. Freiburg look booked for an 8th-11th placed finish and would probably need to win four+ remaining games to push for a European spot (7th place will qualify if Bayern win the DFB-Pokal) and that is unlikely to happen . They lost 1-0 at home to Leverkusen last Friday, so have been training towards this kick off time for more than a week, which gives them an edge as BMG played last Sunday afternoon, but it is minimal and outweighed by the visitor having huge Champions League motivation. Seven days ago I noted ............

 

 

It was 0-0 at the break, Bayer scored early in the second half and that was that in a game of very few chances, just two attempts on target and one save made in total. Hard not to see BMG creating more (Leverkusen went into that game having taken a huge blow to their confidence, so it was all about grinding a result out for them) and Freiburg will need to improve to win this, but they have triple red numbers, do not score enough and should have conceded more, so look far and away the more limited of these two. BMG are in 4th holding the final Champions League spot currently, but only ahead of Leverkusen on goal difference, with a trip to Munich to play Bayern next week, so it has to be three points or nothing for them today you feel. However, they do have history to overcome and Freiburg are 8-1-0 in h2h meetings as host which is a concern, but last season's game was 20 months ago and BMG won the reverse fixture this season when they are much improved 4-2 , creating 23 attempts, 18 ITB, 13 on target, 10 BC's, hitting the woodwork twice, missing a penalty and forcing 9 saves, with the visiting keeper their MOTM. Those are HUGE numbers, Alassane Pléa only got 6 minutes of game time and Freiburg will not have a home crowd this evening and if BMG play with the same focus and belief they showed against Union, they should win this. A point is not going to help either team much and should ensure we see a positive result for one of them this evening. Freiburg are without CB Manuel Gulde who has started the last 17 games, he missed 13 games last season through which they conceded 26 goals (2.0 pg).

 

 

Stay safe and good luck !