Bundesliga : who's hot, who's not!
Sep 20, 2022
I have some Bundesliga stats below and of all the "expected" numbers we look at, the ones from Germany are arguably the most reliable and which usually throw up some amazing bets, hopefully, they will do so again when domestic football returns at the end of next week.
Bundesliga 22/23
All teams have played 7 rounds.
Union Berlin 6-5 / 49-54 / 6.0-6.3
Dortmund 19-8 / 63-42 / 11.9-6.0
Freiburg 20-7 / 66-67 / 12.0-7.1
Hoffenheim 15-12 / 65-57 / 11.4-9.3
Bayern 28-11/ 100-35 / 18.3- 6.5
BMG 19-11 / 69-66 / 12.5 -9.1
Frankfurt 17-18 / 51-49 / 10.0-10.7
Mainz 12-16 / 56-42 / 8.2-9.7
Köln 18-11 / 67-38 / 12.5-7.0
Bremen 15-15 / 55-53 / 10.4-9.5
Augsburg 8-25 / 38-79 / 6.2-14.8
Leipzig 17-15 / 67-50 / 11.2-10.2
Hertha 15-17 / 52-69 / 9.4-10.5
Schalke 10-14 / 52-83 / 8.5-12.3
Leverkusen 19-19 / 64-57/ 11.9-12.8
Stuttgart 11-13 / 53-55 / 7.3-10.0
Wolfsburg 7-16 / 43-64 / 5.4 -12.0
Bochum 8-31 / 48-98 / 7.0-17.8
The three columns are BC's ( created-conceded), ITB attempts (created-conceded) and xG.
We can look in more detail at the most recent numbers (last 3-4 games) ahead of the next fixtures, but can cover a few points briefly today.
Union Berlin are one of our favourites and it is hard to be critical of this extremely well run club, who improve season on season on a very limited budget, but they are not posting top of the table, or even top 6 numbers, especially offensively and we should treat them with a little caution going forward.
Freiburg were top 6 all last season, but did fade a little after a strong start, to finish 6th ,they are clearly decent and their BC numbers are second only to Bayern
and xG is good, ITB gives more cause for concern, but they have great continuity at the club with the head coach in his 11th year and they have been able to limit the sales to just one key player leaving in each of the last two campaigns. I know they turned down offers this season for others, so appear to have ambition to try and break into the top 4.
Despite currently sitting in 5th place Bayern are the best team in the Bundesliga by a country mile, who knew ?
Mainz always seem to struggle for goals, 50 scored last season was the fewest in the top half of the table and they have managed just 7 in 7 this time round and expected numbers hardly scream that they have been unfortunate in front of their opponents goal. Top scorer is Karim Onisiwo, he is the only player with more than a single goal, but just 25 goals in 160 Bundesliga appearances and at 30yo, I doubt he is suddenly going to become a 15 goal per season striker. They need Jonathan Burkardt back and fully fit ASAP.
The Köln numbers are just excellent and on both sides of the ball, they have played ok, but struggled for wins after European games and do seem heavily invested in the international competition, albeit that only the Europa Conference League, but supporters have kind of demanded that by their huge interest . However, they are clearly better than their league position , should only be opposed with good reason and are worth a second look when they are not dealing with the Thursday/Sunday schedule.
Augsburg are in a lofty (it is all relative) 11th place after seven seasons of struggle and several of very poor numbers ,and they are coming off a famous win over Bayern and back to back Bundesliga wins for only the second time in two years. All credit to them for that and maybe it is a turning point, but given their terrible numbers we have to see more before we can be sure of that and I have my doubts!
Leipzig are in a false position in the league and I guess many of you probably suspected that, they are the only bottom half of the table side with triple positive numbers. They were 11th through 14 rounds last season (5-3-6) before finishing 12-4-4 to snatch 4th a Champions League spot and they can come on similarly strong in the coming months.
Bit of a mixed bag with those Schalke numbers, six points back in the Bundesliga after that nightmare relegation campaign of 20/21 when they posted just 3 wins and a 25-86 goal difference is not too bad, but memories of that must still be raw and there is cause for concern with just 10 BC's created and especially 83 ITB attempts conceded. Take care!
Leverkusen are another side we will have guessed are much better than their league position and they were 3rd last season. Their numbers are largely good, especially offensively, but not so easy to explain at the other end of the pitch, however, to concede 19 BC's and 12 goals from so few ITB attempts allowed smacks of bad luck and they will surely soon be on the rise.
Slim to no chance that Wolfsburg and Bochum are not the two worst teams in the Bundesliga right now and slim has just left town! The Bochum numbers are sensationally bad!
Good luck!
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