I sent subscribers five selections for today's football, you can read one below. 99.9% of all sample previews posted on the website are exactly as sent to clubgowi members, this one has been changed slightly, but that doesn't alter the thinking/basic analysis................

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bristol City had won 7 in a row since Boxing Day until a 3-2 defeat at league leaders Norwich City over the weekend, where they led twice, including at HT. I am not sure where that run came from, I had seen them immediately before the first win in that sequence a 1-1 draw at Ashton Gate against Brentford and there was no sign of it at all ! City fans were very disillusioned at the time and this was typical of comments from home supporters : Poor performance today from City. Static and very little invention. First half in particular was woeful. We played ourselves into trouble so many times with the unnecessary backwards/sideways passes.Brentford on the other hand looked lively, mobile, determined, inventive and full of running. Those supporters were probably similarly surprised by the seven wins, but before we get too carried away with it, City were very fortunate with that sequence, of the seven opponents, six were bottom half of the table, none in the top 8 and ALL, believe it or not, were out of form. Of course, you can only beat the teams you are asked to play and confidence will have grown accordingly, but Norwich , in addition to the three goals, hit the woodwork twice, missed three big chances and had 16 attempts from inside the box (Preston and Sheffield Wednesday both scored three on Saturday and only managed 9 each ITB). In addition to the reality check, City had to make the 9 hour round trip to Norwich and this is a quick turnaround.

 

Birmingham are 9th and would move to within three points of Bristol City who currently occupy the last playoff spot with the win. They had taken 7 points and scored 9 goals from three games to get into real top six contention, before back to back home games with Bolton Wanderers and Blackburn Rovers where they would have expected 4+ points and collected just one. Losing the first 1-0 (missed a host of chances) and drawing 2-2 at the weekend with Rovers, where they looked good for the win early on, but and not for the first time recently, handed the intiative back to the opposition, something head coach Gary Monk addressed post game: "I think a big mistake that we made today was for the first half-hour we had Blackburn right where we wanted them. We were doing everything right and got a goal up then for whatever reason at that point we handed the initiative back to them. I said to the players at the end when you have a team right where you want them you have to continue in that vein. Even if you score a goal and it feels comfortable you have to go even harder at that point. Then for a team to wrestle it back from you they have to do something special. But we handed it back to them today. That's really the biggest mistake of today. But that's part of the learning curve of this group, part of the progression of this football team and that's another one we are going to have to understand and not repeat going forward. Everything you saw after that point is an accumulation of that mistake because instead of Blackburn going in at half-time believing the second-half was going to be a long second-half, they went in with belief - we handed them that belief. That's when the game becomes 50-50 and you rely on not making mistakes. We made two really poor goals against us, that's what happens from the original mistake. That can't happen if you want to be a good team and want to keep progressing."

 

That should ensure his team do not ease off if leading tonight. I think Blues are the better team on what I have seen and much inproved this season, neither is probably good enough for top 6 and 8th-12th is more their level. I suspect City might be pleased to be away from St Andrews, they have scored 7 in their last two road starts and at least one in their last 12 away games, at an average of 1.92, scoring at least twice in 6 of the last 8.They are going to get chances tonight if the hosting side are as exposed as Saturday and will take heart from a visit here late last season when Blues were struggling and actually lost 3-1 which soulds odd, but they dominated all stat categories and missed three huge chances and had no Che Adams (pictured) up top ( 23 goals in 35 Championship appearances subsequently). I see good value in the visitors.

 

 

 

 

Good luck !