Albion started much the better, led 1-0 at half time, with Villa upping their level in the second half and scoring twice between the 75th and 79th minute to turn the match on it's head. However, perhaps the big and maybe decisive action was the dismissal of Dwight Gayle (pictured) of Albion late in the game. Until that point Gayle was the standout performer on the pitch, he scored Villa's goal and was head and shoulders above everyone else in terms of both ability and thinking. He was top scorer for the Baggies this season, with 23 goals in 39 appearances, along with 8 assists. 17 of his goals came here at the Hawthorns, including in a 2-2 draw with the Villans and WBA won only one home game all season without a soring contribution (goal or assist) from him. Albion were very effective at Villa Park with Jay Rodriguez playing in a more withdrawn role, but that is now not an option, as he will have to lead the line and with limited options for the host, as Hal Robson-Kanu is also missing and whilst they do have Matt Philips available now, he has not played more than 65 minutes since New Year's Day and was on the field for that length of time on Saturday and this is a quick turnaround for him, he has also not scored or assisted in 2019, with his 5 goals and 6 assists, all coming in the first half of the season.

 

This would not be such an issue if Albion had held on to their lead, but feels like it is now that they are playing catch up and needing to find a goal or possibly two, probably the latter to win, as they have conceded in 8/9 starts, 2+ in 6, 16 goals total with the only clean sheet in that sequence to 20th placed Reading and they have kept just 3 clean sheets in 23 home Championship starts. 16 of the last 18 sides to win the first leg of a Championship play-off semi-final have gone on to progress through to the final. So, we have Villa likely to score at least once and probably progress, with Albion having to gamble and play on the front foot, which is their natural instinct anyway, but minus the key player to enable them to do so, with added pressure on Rodriguez and a still not 100% Philips.

 

5 of the last 7 h2h meetings at the Hawthorns have ended all square. Team playing at home in the second leg is always the one with the higher finishing position and we have not seen many away wins, just one in the last ten games (5-4-1) and that in a tie where the home team were defending a three goal first leg win ! 40% draws though and 3 ended 1-1 and that feels the most likely scoreline this evening.