I have written a 2,300 word preview of the final today for subscribers, the game will be played between two long time rivals in Brentford and Fulham at an "empty" Wembley Stadium , with a place in the Premier League at stake and bringing with it a guaranteed £170m in prize money, which seems even more because of the coronavirus pandemic and so many clubs/leagues suffering financially. It would make a huge difference to both clubs, but more so to Brentford as Fulham already receive PL parachute payments, for the Bees it would be a quantum leap forward in terms of income.
I would to keep most of my thoughts about the game off this open forum, but I can share a few stats about the game and teams which you may find of interest ..............
Fulham finished fourth and are probably the fourth best team in the Championship, Brentford were third, but everything points to them being better than that. Only Leeds United posted stronger numbers and the Bees are a net +170 ITB over Fulham for the regular season and xP had them 29 points ahead, they also won both h2h games without conceding and have lost just 1/10 Championship meetings , winning 6. Of the last 14 finals, 7 have been won by the team finishing third, just two by the 4th placed side. Brentford are the better team and few who have seen the two play this season will dispute that, the Bees had four players ranked in the top 18 Championship performers this season, Fulham just one and only one other team had more than two (champions Leeds United with 3).
What Fulham do have is Championship playoff experience and they are taking part for the third time in four seasons, winning in 17-18 . However, none has been played in an empty stadium before and the wide open spaces of Wembley will feel even more open and wider than usual and that should suit Brentford to a tee, with the most fluid/interchangeable front three in English football and players who love to use the full width of the pitch. The size of the playing surface at the national stadium is 105m x 68m, the last seven away games the Bees played in the regular season on pitches that exact size saw them win six , draw one, with a 3-22 goal difference, scoring 3+ goals in all six wins.
Last ten finals have seen the higher ranked team win six, five have gone "over" 2.5 goals, 5 under, with the higher ranked team winning the last four "overs", the #3 team has lost only one of 7 inside 90 minutes. First goal is usually decisive, team scoring first has won 15/16 finals , including the last 8.
