Seven really interesting games in the Champipnship today and I have previewed them all for clubgowi subscribers, I cannot share any of those with you, but have provided some brief comments and stats for each below. Please do not make any assumptions about the final analysis as the newsletter content ran to 5,000 words and you are only seeing 20% of that and it would be easy to get the wrong idea. But if you are looking at the games in question, these basic notes and the full stat tables ahead of last weekend's games should be of some help.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Given that there are just seven rounds left to play and chances of either breaking into the top six are now relatively slim, a draw has almost zero value.

 

Very little between these two in terms of league position , need ,or xP . Millwall do have an ITB edge, but City's recent numbers are better.

 

Both need to play for the win and City have scored 9 goals in their last four away starts , with three of those games having 2+ in the opening 45 minutes .

 

 

 

Rovers lost to one bottom eight team at the weekend albeit a good one and given their top six chance has fallen to odds of circa 6.5 they are going to have to gamble for the win here, which will suit the Tykes who are bottom of the table, but within five points of four teams.

 

 

 

Cardiff have just broken into the top six and might be 4 points adrift of fifth placed Fulham, but the remaining fixtures gives them a better chance than the Cottagers of finishing in a postseason spot. Wins over Leeds and Preson have seen their top 6 percentage increase from 19% pre lockdown to 71% !

 

The restart has gone incredibly well for these two, Charlton winning both starts despite some issues on and off the pitch with the points taking them back up to a " lofty" 18th with a three points and good goal difference buffer over the drop zone. Those wins came against teams with issues of their own, whereas City are on fire under former Millwall boss Neil Harris who will know the visitors as well as he does any opponent, with the Valley just 7km from the New Den where he spent 16 years as player and coach.  City have also won both starts (see above) and will want no let up now that they are 6th, especially with their next four starts against fellow promotion rivals.

 

 

 

 

 

With the Bees "guaranteed" a top six spot and still in automatic contention, it has to be three points or nothing for them.

 

There is a rivalry between the two teams and Brentford will want some pay back and this time the points are valuable to them and less so to Reading who are a net -192 ITB for the season and the two clubs posting "reverse" numbers for the last 10 starts(Brentford 94-64, Reading 62-95). XP also gives the Bees an additional 23 points in hand over the Royals, who will be without suspended centre back Matthew Miazga who is on loan from Chelsea.

 

 

Back to back losses have put Fulham under pressure and now looking over their shoulder instead of up the table, with their top 6 chance falling 20% from 89% pre lockdown and automatic chance almost disappearing .

 

This is the "other" West London derby. Fulham have lost Neeskens Kebano and Alekansandar Mitrovic to suspension, I doubt there is a single striker in England as pivotal to any team as Mitrovic is to Fulham, let's look at a few numbers ........

 

 

 

You only have to watch Fulham for 10 minutes to see how everything is played up and towards him. Rangers are "probably" safe on 50 points,but need to stop the rot and we spoke about their own issues ahead of losses at home to Barnsley and away to Charlton, both bottom six teams.

 

 

Leeds: chance of top two finish 95%. It really looks like justice will now be done and United will soon reclaim their place in the top flight.

 

Leeds probably need three more wins to seal promotion and their remaining four games at Elland Road are against teams currently placed 23/20/24/18 and whilst you do not really want to play teams battling for survival at this stage of the season, as we saw over the weekend, it will be a tall order for any to stop the Leeds juggernaut with such a huge prize awaiting and after coming so close last season, they will surely not be guilty of taking anything for granted until the deal is done and dusted.

 

 

 

XP puts these two very close and both inside the TOP 6 (!) , ITB sees it differently and City have a massive +144 net advantage and their need is great today. The visitors are without suspended Nick Powell ( 5 goals and 4 assists), but they have won 2 of the last 3 he has sat out.

 

Stay safe and good luck !