Next newsletter will be sent @ 10.00 UK time on Saturday.
Wow ! Wild game and crazy finish in Detroit !
Not a standard Friday for us at this time of year, there are no Ligue 2 fixtures this weekend and J-League has all but finished, still, we have a big weekend ahead, with a LOT of matches to discuss on Saturday and Sunday and I have anyway, two previews for today ........
Championship: Ipswich Town- Middlesbrough
Big game for both , Town can move into the play off places, at least for 24 hours with a point and Boro would go top, with all three.
Ipswich are in their best form of the season, are unbeaten in six, scoring 12 goals in their last four (three wins) and are very tough to beat on home soil, 3-5-1 this season and they collected a Championship high 50 points here last season, which included a 2-0 defeat of Middlesbrough, infact, Boro have lost on their last three visits, all by 2+ goals and have not posted a win at portman Road in more than 20 years. The Tractor Boys have drawn too many games here this season, but only Burnley have won and a point in this fixture is almost always seen as one earned and not two lost by Championship clubs. Boro are well aware of how tough this will be and doubly so as they played a Capital One Cup game with Everton in midweek, they rotated quite heavily for that, but eight players featured in both the cup tie and the win at Huddersfield last weekend and a third really taxing game inside seven days is going to be a big ask for some and I really do not see why Boro should be favourites to win this. I have already seen Ipswich at Griffin Park this season, they were big, strong, well organised, exactly how they and any team managed by Mick McCarthy always are and despite that being the opening day of the season, it was already fairly clear that they would again be in and around the playoffs. However, as I mentioned earlier this week, it is going to be tough for any of the teams outside the top five to break into that elite group and if clubs do not simply want to be playing for one remaining post season place, they can afford few slip ups and have to make the most of home games against teams above them in the table and that makes this game hugely important for Town. Boro are a bit physical on the road, but those tactics will not work against Ipswich and I have to side with the hosts, with the draw no bet safeguard.
1.5 units Ipswich Town level ball 2.02 asian line/Sportmarket.
There is one major concern and that is
David Nugent is now a Boro player following his move from Leicester City in the summer and he simply loves to play against Town, with a whopping 14 goals in his last 13 matches against them for City, Preston and Portsmouth (remember them ?) , if that was not impressive enough, he has scored in a perfect 7/7 visits tp Portman Road, nine goals in total and no prizes for guessing that he nominates it as his favourite away ground. He was one of those rested in midweek and if Boro are to score this evening, the goal(s) seems as likely to come via him as anyone else
Daryl Murphy (pictured) has six goals in his last three league games for Ipswich, after failing to score in his first 13 and you know that I love a striker in form, he was top Championship scorer last season with 27 goals, six more than anyone else, including the opener in this fixture last season and his earlier drought was simply a blip and recent Town opponents are paying the price.
Nugent and Murphy are both circa 2.80-3.10 general quote in the anytime goalscorer markets and both are probably a little on the big side at the upper end given those stats, especially Murphy, who is the focus of so much of what Town do offensively and he has averaged far better than a goal every two games for the last 16 months, despite a 13 match fry spell, which is incredible (0.67 goals per game otherwise).
Taking either would be fine, but Town will be looking for Murphy at every opportunity and if you can find 2.875-3.10 I would suggest 1 unit....there is 3.30 on Betfair sportsbook btw.
Serie A : Lazio- Juventus
Juve have served us well this season, we started to follow them, just about the time they picked up and we have been pretty selective, anyway, they have hauled themselves up into title contention and the other top teams have helped out and largely waited for them and they probably all feel that they have not made the most of a huge opportunity. Juve are now just seven points off the lead and they could move level with Roma (whom they trailed by 11 points at the end of October) with the win tonight. The visitors have won their last four, which included a recent 3-1 win at Empoli and my preview notes for that game can be read below the "good luck" sign off, they are quite extensive and provide all the background information needed, especially as Juve are one of the biggest clubs in Europe, with their every movement covered in great detail by the media. Paul Pogba is suspended tonight and that is (obviously) a big loss, this is the first league match he has sat out this season, but he missed 13 matches in 2014-15 and Juve won 10 of those, so it doesn't have to be a decisive loss and it is offset by Lazio being without key left sided player Senad Lulic ( won 7 from 24 in his absence in the last three years), who had part of his finger severed in an horrific accident in the gym this week , which has doubtless left the player and team mates a little traumatised. He has played every game this season, but Lazio did concede three inside 45 minutes to Napoli after he left the pitch at the break. In terms of importance to their respective teams, I think that we can call it honours even , with Juve having better and more options and depth in their squad.
Lazio have a decent home record, but not when the old Lady is in town, with Juve boasting a 7-3-0 record in this series and the hosts not winning here in Rome in a h2h game since 2003. They do not really do draws either, just 1/14 this season and 4/36 in 2015 and if there is to be a winner this evening, it can only be one team right now for me and that is Juve.
1.5 units Juventus -0.5 ball 2.23 asian line/Sportmarket....there is plenty of 2.20-2.25 around elsewhere.
Juventus: 1 Buffon, 3 Chiellini, 7 Zaza,8 Marchisio,9 Morata,12 Alex Sandro,15 Barzagli,16 Cuadrado,17 Mandzukic,18 Lemina,19 Bonucci,20 Padoin,21 Dybala,22 Asamoah,24 Rugani,25 Neto,26 Lichtsteiner,27 Sturaro,33 Evra,34 Rubinho,40 Vitale.
Good Luck.
Serie A : Empoli- Juventus (written November 8th)
Two weeks ago I previewed Juve's home game with Atalanta, a match which came on the back of their last Champions League game and we discussed how vital the next series of league games were for the struggling (domestically) giant and also their amazing record in Serie A immediately following a European fixture ..............
Really strange camapign for Juve so far , they sit top of their Champions League group, but are languishing down in 15th spot in Serie A coming into this game. However, the clubs at the top of the table seem to be beating each other right now and appear to be subconsciously waiting for the Old Lady to wake from her slumbers. Surely Juve can forget all about Europe for the next eight days and concentrate fully on domestic matters, they play three league games in this period and seven points + should be enough to get them back on track. Ahead of their recent home game with Bologna my notes went a lot like this .....
Coming into the mini break, Juventus are an incredible ten points off the joint leaders and anything other than three points today, might already signal the end of their title defence. That is kind of unthinkable in the the first week of October and they have to find a way to win this and preferably to do so in style and lay down a marker to the other Serie A teams. They are playing Inter after the international hiatus, so back to back wins could quickly make things look so much better domestically and with six Champions League points already in the bag and no distractions, the scene is set for a big domestic performance, ahead of their last win , a 2-0 defeat of Genoa on the road , I wrote ....
It seems strange to type these words, but Juventus are without a win after three Serie A games and are already eight points off title pace, however, two goals in a ten minute spell against Manchester City in midweek might not only have turned that game around but their early season form/issues. The goals were celebrated wildly and obviously meant so much more than just three group points, although those points do lift the pressure regarding qualification and it can be all about domestic football for the next two weeks, I feel they can ride the momentum in Genoa and kick start their title push. There is also the small matter of a little revenge as the hosts inflicted the only defeat on Juve last season over the opening 29 games, until basically the title was won, with Genoa winning 1-0 in this fixture 11 months ago, that will not have been forgotten, especially by Gianluigi Buffon who was making his 500th apperance for the club in that game. He was beaten in the 94th minute after his team mates had been denied twice by the woodwork and some key saves from his Genoa counterpart, Mattia Perin.
The visitors have named an unchanged squad from midweek and have the option to go with the same starting eleven, that means still no Martin Caceres, Claudio Marchisio,Sami Khedira or Kwadwo Asamoah and they will be stronger when they get one or two of those back, but Paul Pogba put in easily his best shift of the season in Manchester and their performance there just felt like a season changer and I cannot see them letting the intensity drop this afternoon. Hosts lost top scorer Iago Falque to Roma in the summer and key winger Diego Perotti , who scored or assisted in all games that Genoa won between the start of December and end of April last season, has only played 17 minutes this time round and they are misfiring as an offensive unit
.
The 2-0 win over Sevilla in midweek must have been a huge confidence boost and now it feels like time to switch on the afterburners, Bologna are without a win in seven starts this season in all competitions and have conceded two on the road to Lazio, Sampdoria and Fiorentina and that is the minimum I expect from Juve who will be looking to carry momentum into the break.
They won that 3-1, but had to come from behind and are just making things very difficult for themselves at present. Atalanta are in decent form , especially offensively, but lost their last road game 3-0 at Fiorentina and might well pay the price today for being a little too gung-ho again this afternoon. Juve have won 16 of the last 20 h2h meetings, scoring an avergaed of 2.35 goals, two or more in 15 and they are "due" a goal or two after failing to score in their last two starts, not sure the last time they came up short in three in a row, I got dizzy trying to look, but whilst doing so, I did notice that, incredibly, they have won 27 of 31 Serie A games following a European fixture, with their only two wins this season coming on the back of their previous two group games and both by two goals. I expect a very focused Juve domestically in the next eight days.
That sequence is now up to 28 from 32 and they also won again by two clear goals and I am expecting both trends to continue this afternoon. Juve won two of those three league games, had to play with ten men for much of the third and are booked to progress in the Champions League with first place in the group likely to be decided in their home game with Manchester City at the end of this month. Today , it is all about the league, they are now up to 10th and "only" nine points off first place, with the top three all facing very difficult games today, Juve could really start to make some inroads on one or two and this is the kind of match that they simply have to win. They won 2-0 here last season almost exactly a year ago (53 weeks) and were suffering their only real blip of that campaign at the time, they had just lost back to back CL games and had taken just a single point from league trips to Genoa and Sassuolo, but a win here kick started a run of six straight wins and an unbeaten 23 game stretch which lasted until March. So they will arrive here with nothing but very positive memories and with eyes on a very similar run.
Empoli are on a nice little run themselves ( 7 points from 3 starts) , but there is a gulf in class and the hosts have conceded at least two goals in their last seven starst against "big" name clubs, an average of 2.43 per game and might have a bit of an inferiority complex (Napoli aside, whom they seem to like playing) against the bigger teams. Anyway, Juve definitely fall into that group and it is not like the visitors are not creating chances with a Serie A high 200+ attempts on goal and I take Juve to keep all the sequences going and to win this 2-0.
1.75 units Juventus 0.75 goals 2.09 asian line/Sportmarket.
Juventus :1 Buffon,3 Chiellini,4 Caceres,6 Khedira,7 Zaza,8 Marchisio,9 Morata,10 Pogba,11 Hernanes,12 Alex Sandro,15 Barzagli,16 Cuadrado,17 Mandzukic,18 Lemina,19 Bonucci,20 Padoin,21 Dybala,24 Rugani,25 Neto,26 Lichtsteiner,27 Sturaro,33 Evra,34 Rubinho.
