As we are running ten year anniversary promotions this week and as you saw a preview from the Tuesday notes, I thought that it would be a good time to let you get another look at exactly what a newsletter looks like, so I have reproduced yesterday's clubgowi subscriber email below (almost) in full, the only thing missing was a brief paragraph which only related to active subscribers. I will post another offer shortly, so please check back later in the day.

 

 

Tuesday April 5th

 

Next newsletter will be sent @ 10.00 UK time on Wednesday.

 

I am sorry to say this, but I just cannot stop myself and I will get abuse from someone, but win , lose or draw, this is a very good newsletter, with a lot of "stuff" that you simply will not find anywhere else, some of the emails just feel "right", this is one IMO, hopefully , long term readers will recognise the better quality notes and be mindful that it is a (at least) daily newsletter and some are always going to be better than others, that is where you come in !
 

 

UEFA Champions League: Barcelona- Atletico Madrid

 

It is over 25 years since a team "repeated" in the Champions League/European Cup (Milan in 1990) and it was a decade before that for the previous time ( Nottingham Forest in 1980). It is hard to know exactly why that would be the case, over the last decade Barcelona have put together several teams which are frequently touted as the greatest club side of all time and they have won the competition four times, but have never been able to follow up and it is clear, stating the obvious, that it is now extremely difficult to win back to back titles.

My guess is that the physical and mental demands are simple too great nowadays, teams are worn out come the business end of the following campaign , due to the extended previous season, World Club Cup fixtures ( Barce have flown mid season to Japan after three of their wins) , huge demands on the winners to play highly lucrative pre season games around the world and in addition , most of the squad being called upon to play international football during the summer break at least every other year. All take a toll and the price has to be paid somewhere down the line, maybe Barce will buck the trend this season, someone will do so sooner or later, but I do not feel the Catalan giants offer good value (exactly the opposite) at quotes of 2.50 to win the competition, when they might have to pass Atletico who beat them at this stage in 2013-14 and then Bayern or Real Madrid, just to get the opportunity to play the final, by the way, only two teams have made back to back finals in the last 14 years . Anyway, we can probably agree it is a big ask and I think that in terms of winning the competition, Atletico at a juicy looking 21.0 and Real Madrid @ 6.0 make far more appeal.
 

I like both, but am betting Atletico today and think I will skip putting anything up "officially" outright as that always seems to result in more questions/complaints than it is worth, but I would like to point out something , Real are a general 6.0 to win, I think that is a very good price, each way most companies offer 1/3 of the odds 1-2 (so you will get odds of 5/3 for the place part.........reaching the final) which might be a little bettter. Bet 365 offer 1/2 the odds 1-2 and that is just plain wrong, that is 5/2 or 3.50 for them to reach the final, they are 1.06 with Sbobet to go through against Wolfsburg, if you think that is roughly correct, you get 3.30 for them to progress through the semis, the only team they can be close to those odds against is Barcelona ( I would personally not be that big in any case), even IF Barce qualify, there is still a 67% chance Real will avoid them in the last four and the team from Madrid have just won in the Camp Nou and have had no Copa del Rey commitments for many months. Since the start of December, Atletico have played 27 times, Barcelona 30, Real just 22 and I think that is starting to show. Barce showed signs in the games with Arsenal, Villarreal and Real that form had dipped a little and that is all it takes at this level of competition. Anyway, it is always worth looking at place odds in events "in running" late in competitions, bookmakers are often lazy in updating them and do not give them enough thought, the hard part is always "getting on" of course, but in this case the straight win odds about both "other" Spanish teams, but especially Real offer good value anyway.
 

I spoke about Atleti and how they were unfortunate not to have already won this competion and were perhaps the easiest winner ever of the Europa league in 2012, ahead of their round of 16 game with PSV .............
 

Atletico have been fast learners in how to play these games and you have to be to thrive and progress, but the trouble is the learning curve is steep and you do not get many goes to get it right ! I discussed this and how Diego Simeone had learned so much from previous ties and "how to play the CL" ahead of road games at Galatasaray and Benfica this season and notes on both can be found at the foot of this email (edit: see Feb 24th newsletter). I think his and his team's ( almost) sole focus from here on in will be the Champions League and given how strong they are defensively and on the break, I doubt any team in Europe, maybe Barcelona aside, is better equipped to play these kind of away games, especially against what is, it has to be said, now a very inexperienced team at this level of competition, playing their first CL knockout game in a decade. Atletico will want that cherished away goal and just one might be enough to win this, but Atleti scored two in the two road games in the competition in which we have backed them and IMO this fixture is not much more difficult. Atletico have posted a La Liga high nine road wins and only Barcelona have scored against them in their last five away starts, apart from games against the "big 2" , they have kept clean sheets in 67% of all starts and even then, many of those conceded were either late consolations or in meaningless ( already won ) fixtures.
 

Ahead of the return leg, I spoke about how they were unlucky not to have won the first meeting and that they had since found a few goals, also the fitness regime that Diego Simeone had put his players through in pre season ............
 

Much talk has been made about the gruelling summer fitness campaign that Diego Simeone put his players through, but it is hard to get away from the feeling that all the benefits of that are kicking in now and his squad are getting stronger, whilst others are feeling the effects of eight months of football. PSV created just one attempt that required to be saved in the first leg and their task is harder today, although perhaps more clear cut, they have lost 9 of 12 road games in the competition and will hit double figures today and if and once the tie feels beyond them and that might be a subconscious decision, thoughts might then turn to Ajax. That will require a second goal at least for Atleti and that is back to where we started this preview !

 

They made very hard work of that game and needed the lottery of a penalty shoot out to progress, but had 26 attempts on goal, were again denied by the inform visiting keeper and few teams win any knockout competitions without one close shave along the way and maybe this was Atletico's. They were unable to lift themselves for that trip to Gijon (see above) which would have been given low priority, but returned from the international break to put five past Real Betis last weekend. Since knocking Barcelona out of the competition two years ago, they have not beaten the Catalan club and have lost the last five all by a single goal, but they led in two of those and ended games with nine men twice. If they can keep their discipline, without losing their competitive edge and Simeone will surely see that doesn't happen a third time, then I see big value in the visitors with the full goal handicap start. We all know about the huge offensive threat that Barcelona possess, but we are also talking about the best defence in Europe and if my counting was correct, it is 64 competitive league games since Atletico lost by two or more and they have actually conceded twice only seven times in that sequence and two of those fixtures I would argue that they were "not overly interested" in. By the way, Bayern, Real and Atletico have all had more attempts on goal than Barce in the competition this season, both in total and on target. It has to be the visitors with the handicap start for me.

 

1.5 units Atletico Madrid +1 ball 1.97 asian line/Sportmarket.

 

Scottish Championship: Glasgow Rangers-Dumbarton

 

Rangers are going to return to the SPL this season , but would surely like to get the job done and dusted this evening, which they can achieve with all three points. They are head and shoulders abover the rest of the Championship, which is to be expected given the size of the club and their fan base and circa 50,000 will be waiting to kick start the celebrations tonight, to put that into some context, Dumbarton have averaged a crowd of 734 for their last three home games . Home boss Mark Warburton believes in an attacking style of football and his teams never sit on a lead, his side have averaged 2.64 goals per game this season and just shy of 3 pg at Ibrox, included in those numbers were two wins ( scoring 4 and 6 goals ) in the last two starts against tonight's opponents and Warburton will want to get the job done in style. His team have actually conceded ten ( !) in their last three starts, but they won the home game in that sequence and two opponents had arguably more to play for and far more offensive threat than The Sons ( just 8 road goals all season) possess and only basement club Alloa Athletic have scored fewer.
 

Additional bonus for Rangers is that getting this signed and sealed early will allow them to focus fully on their Challenge Cup Final with Peterhead on Sunday and more importantly go into the Scottish Cup semi final with their biggest rivals Celtic, seven days later as an SPL club, albeit one "in waiting". The hosts have scored four goals next time out following dropped road points in 4/4 games at Ibrox and can make it 5/5 today after a 3-3 draw at Raith Rovers on Saturday.

 

 

 

Championship: Birmingham City- Brighton

 

Hosts are without a win in four and have taken maximum points from only 2 of ten starts, they have failed to score in half of those and managed just a single goal in the other five outings and a lack of ambition and goals, has made them a very difficult team to watch this season. That is no criticism of head coach Gary Rowett who has done a fine, maybe even miraculous job in very difficult circumstances at St Andrews to not only keep his team in the division, but to flirt with the playoff places. He has had no option but to play to his team's strengths such as they are , but pleasing on the eye they are not ! That dalliance with the top six appears over now sitting ninth, eight points of the pace, they do have a game in hand, so three today would keep the dream alive a little longer and normally you would expect them to gamble and go all out for the points, but I would not bet on that with the Blues.

Brighton are now known for their offensive prowess either , but are unbeaten in seven and have scored 13 goals in that sequence which is 0.57 goals per game more than they have managed for the rest of the season and they took points from the two games in which they failed to score and that is very much their gameplan, keep things tight and look to steal a goal on the break, especially away from home. Two teams with a very similar style and approach, only that Brighton do it a little better !They are a point shy of Middlesbrough (who have a GIH)  in second and four adrift of leaders Burnley and are still very much in the automatic promotion picture, they are ten clear of Cardiff City in 7th with 7 rounds to play and look booked for a post season spot at worse and there is really no point in them not going all out for the win and to put some pressure on the top two . Brighton have perhaps the easiest remaining schedule of the top clubs before going to Boro on the final day of the season and their aim, surely, has to be to stay in touch until then.I have all the time in the world for visiting boss Chris Hughton (pictured) who is probably too nice a bloke for football management and no one would deserve another promotion more.
 

City main striker and second top scorer Clayton Donaldson has scored only three goals in the last seven months and top scorer midfielder Jon Toral (eight goals and four assists) is a major doubt,, the pair, like Hughton are former Brentford players and I know them all well, Donaldson is in the driest spell of his career and Toral has been carrying the line, which is not his game at all. Kyle Lafferty was brought in on loan to help the goal threat, but he has yet to kick a ball and is again a doubt and things look difficult for the home team.

 

1.5 units Brighton -0.5 ball 2.44 asian line/Sportmarket.

 

 

Championship: Middlesbrough- Huddersfield Town

 

I previewed Town's home game with Burnley which they lost 3-1 last month and those notes are reproduced below the "good luck" sign off. That worked out well, with the Clarets not only winning, but doing so by those two goals which I highlighted at odds of 5.50-6.0 and they were also two up inside the opening 30 minutes having spoken about the Terrie';s poor record in the open third of home games. They have since played back to back Yorkshire derby games either side of the international break, winning one and losing the other. They have another derby fixture on Saturday when they entertain another promotion chasing club in Hull City and focus could quickly turn to that if and when they fail behind this evening. It is very hard to give everything three times inside eight days against a trio of the strongest Championship teams and they need to pick up something from at least one of these next two and surely Saturday will be a little easier.
 

Boro are a very annoying and frustrating team, prior to their trip to lowly Charlton Athletic last month I spoke about the head coaching drama at the club ..........

Ahead of Charlton's 0-0 home midweek draw with MK Dons I wrote .........

I saw the Addicks on Saturday, they won 2-1 at Brentford , earning three points which took them off the foot of the table, it is hard to say too much about them, or their performance as the Bees were so bad, giving up a goal after 19 seconds (!) and never really imposing themselves. However, they certainly did not look any worse than Rotherham or MK Dons who were the two poorest teams to come to Griffin Park this season, it is wrong to judge anyone on a single showing, but I also saw Athletic in the game at the Valley and they looked OK early there, just short of confidence which manifested itself when they fell behind, losing 3-0. They have conceded a Championship high 66 goals this season , 24 in their last ten and they look likely to struggle to get back into games once they fall behind . However, the win at the weekend has given them hope of an unlikely survival bid and they are now seven points from safety, but the team they are looking to catch is Dons and so that could be down to "just" four if they can find a way to win this and points will be easier to come by here than when they entertain high flying Middlesbrough on Sunday and surely, today it has to be three points or die trying !

Athletic never imposed themselves and Dons looked happy with a point, Yaya Sanogo got dismissed and will miss out today, which weakens them offensively , but they should get a little more space today and there is every reason to believe that the visitors will play with far more freedom that we usually see from them. Boro boss Aitor Karanka walked out of training after a bust up on Friday and has not travelled with the team, Steve Agnew will take charge and is expected to go with a far more offensive line up , than we have seen under Karanka who learned his trade from Jose Mourinho and is very much of a defensive first mindset, which is incredibly frustrating given the firepower he has in this squad. Agnew seems sure to bring back all the "name" senior players today (Leadbitter, Rhodes, Downing) and might even go with two up front and definitely with two wide men. The players will surely want to perform and show that the issues were with the coach and not them and I suspect with the shackles lifted we will see goals, maybe at both ends. The Addicks are eight points ( plus goal difference ) from safety, they have five home games left, Boro, Birmingham, Derby, Brighton, Burnley, which is as tough as it gets, if they had won in midweek, they would have been some momentum, but it stalled and the loss of Sanogo, who was the one real energetic striker, is big and if they fall behind today, I suspect that self belief will fade and this could quickly run away from them.
 

Boro lost that 2-0 and Karanka was back in charge of the team by close of business Sunday, very strange goings on ! They have since reponded with a late, late winner over Hull City and a 3-2 win at QPR and now look back on course for EPL football, they will be pleased that the breakthrough goals in those games came from strikers David Nugent and Jordan Rhodes and those are the guys they will be expecting to fire them to the top flight.
 

Over the last 17 months, Boro have played 14 midweek matches at the Riverside, they have won just the 14 (!), keeping cleansheets in 9 and I expect them to make it 15/15 this evening, they have won the last two h2h meetings 2-0 and a similar two goal margin of victory seems on the cards ....2-0/3-1. Last year I would probably have suggested holding on for a better quote "in running" and we kind of "milked" that with Boro who made a habit of slow starts at home, but they have been a bit quicker out of the blocks this season. Having said that, they are a (far and away) Championship best 10-1 ( goal difference) here in the final 15 minutes and are a team made for inplay betting, only Charlton have conceded more road goals through that same 15 minute period than Town and we can expect Boro to dominate this late. Their goals in the 2-0 win in this fixture last season came in the 62nd and 95th minute. James Husband cannot start for the visitors against his parent club.

 

1.75 units Middlesbrough -1 ball 2.25 asian line/Sportmarket.

 

Elsewhere...........Brentford are very motivated to follow up the 3-0 win at Nottingham Forest on Saturday and secure the three points over Bolton which will all but cement their Championship status for another season . The visitors are almost relegated and have yet to win on the road, but the Bees are shorthanded and Leandro Rodriguez ,Maxime Colin ,John Swift , David Button and midfielder Alan Judge are, or were all carrying knocks. It is hard to get confirmed team news and believe me I have tried and suspect there will be some last minute decisions, but it looks like the last two named will play and they are the two most important in the squad for me and if one of the others could make it, they should be fine, two would be better.  Hard to see the Bees winning a close one, so if they do not win "big" it will probably be more dropped home points, but given the handicap and quote, that is not really an issue and we could take a chance at what are now big odds (Brentford -1 ball 2.44) I will say 1.25 units as odds are appealing, but if you get team news and Judge,Button and one of the others named are starting, then circa 2.20 at that time would perhaps be even better.

 

Ipswich Town- Charlton
 

Hosts are five points off the playoff pace with time and games running out, they are slow starters at home, something we have discussed several times already this season and they have a -5 goal difference before the break and +10 in the second half. Charlton are six points from safety, but have won three of their last five, however, they have the worst defensive record in the Championship and are a far and away worst -20 goals on the road after the break. Two teams who will gamble for the win, if the two are level at the break, or immediately in the visitors take the lead, I would like to try 1.25 units Ipswich Town at the first asian line quoted at odds of above 2.0 , with the usual stipulation that we are playing 11 v 11.
 

 

Good Luck.

 

I feel that oddsmakers have given Huddersfield Town a little too much credit for their 3-1 midweek win over a very distracted Reading team , ahead of that game I wrote .............

Town have finished 16th-19th in their three seasons since returning to the Championship and look booked for a similar placing this time round, being 18th and having played a game more than the three teams immediately above them. It is a little surprising that they have not kicked on and at least mounted a bit of a challenge in one of these campaigns, but you have got to be in it, to win it and priority now has to be preserving their second tier status. They have a seven point advantage over the drop zone, but will need to find another three wins or so, their next five starts after tonight are incredibly tough, playing the top three, in addition to two Yorkshire derby fixtures, one against a team in the top six.

 I am pretty sure that they will be eyeing up the three points tonight and that the visitors will have their focus on their home FA Cup quarter final with Crystal Palace on FRIDAY night, that is very win-able with the Eagles in freefall , but the EPL team played on Sunday and will have had 48 hours + longer recovery time and that means that the Royals will be rotating heavily this evening and putting out pretty much a B team, with the prize of a Wembley appearance so close they can almost touch it. Reading have collected four points from their last two league games , but did concede five and there should be goals in this for the Terriers and they have scored nine in the last four h2h meetings. First goal should see this get very stretched at both ends and anyone coming in for the Royals will be looking for a chance to impress. The two teams shared 11 goals in two FA Cup ties in Janauary and Town were two up early in the replay at the Madejski before the tie turned on a dismissal and they will want a little revenge for that

.
 

They are going to be asked a lot more questions today by what is a strong visiting team who have broken type this season to invest heavily in players with the aim of returning to the Premier League at the first attempt. They used the funds from their previous spell in the top flight to upgrade facilities at the club and secure their long term future, this time round it has been in the squad and their previous transfer record and frugal spending policy has been blown out of the water. That has paid off so far, Andre Gray now looks cheap at £9m and is the top scorer in the Championship and the Clarets sit atop of the second tier, main rivals Middlesbrough and Hull City look to have very win-able games this weekend and to maintain their advantage, Burnley are going to have to come looking for all three points and a sixth straight win. The Clarets are an incredible 14-0-0 against bottom eight teams this season, they have scored 2+ in 13 of those and the average winning margin is exactly 2.0 goals. Away win.
 

 

Town start slowly here at the Galpharm, where they have a -6 goal difference in the opening 30 minutes , which rises to +7 thereafter, Burnley are +5 on the road in the first 15 minutes.