clubgowi post of 2018 .................nomination #3
Nov 13, 2018
This is number 3 in the "post of the year" series, you can read the first two via the links at the foot of this preview.
It is more about highlighting what the newsletter offers than really finding to post of the year, but here goes .............
NFL: Jacksonville Jaguars-Kansas City Chiefs (written October 7th)
Chiefs opened 5-0 last season and are currently 4-0, since they won that opener at the Chargers I have had it in my mind that they would repeat that 5/5 start and it is very difficult for me to swerve them today, despite knowing how good the Jags are .
Lots of notes on the Chiefs or course and we have done very well with them so far, there was more in the Monday email, but the "new" content for that game read .......
KC have won the last five h2h games, including three here in Colorado, they have scored between 27-33 points in all five, 27-30 in the road games, that is a very narrow band of scores and one it is very easy to see them reaching again today as a minimum. Few would argue against the Chiefs having gone up another level offensively and that is obvious to even the most casual NFL observer. To to stay within the handicap spread Denver will have to score 24+, again as a minimum, they might well do so, but even that looks a tall order and we are talking about minimum levels in terms of what I am expecting the Chiefs to put up. I spoke last week about KC being better on the ground defensively and they are ranked 18th versus the run, 31st against the pass and it is on the ground where Denver are strongest so far, with new quarterback Case Keenum struggling through the air. He has thrown five interceptions to just three touchdowns, posting a 71.6 passer rating through three weeks, in the first half of games this season that already low rating drops another 5 points which is significant with the fast starting Chiefs putting up an average of 24.3 points through the opening two quarters.
By contrast Chiefs 23yo QB Patrick Mahomes (pictured) leads the league in touchdown passes (13), passer rating (137.4) and throws of at least 25 yards (25) this season, all without throwing an interception. His 13 touchdowns are the most through three games in NFL history, and overall, Kansas City is the first team to open the season with at least 38 points in each of its first three games since the 2007 New England Patriots.
Tight End Travis Kelce has been the top target with 16 catches for 229 yards and two touchdowns and loves to play the Broncos, with 26 receptions for 394 yards and two touchdowns in his last three games against Denver, recording at least 100 yards receiving in each of them. He is the only player since 2009 to notch multiple 100-yard performances against the Broncos’ much vaunted pass defense which was ranked 4th last year, but is 16th through three games this time round and might have gone backwards and we know KC have continued to improve and have put up good numbers in this contest in the past, against what was possibly a better defense
Tyreek Hill is another to watch tonight, well, anytime really, but he has spoken of his love of playing under lights and he has scored in 8 of 10 primetime games, 11 touchdowns total.
They won 27-23 with Kareem Hunt having 19 carres at an average of 6.37 yards and if the ground game works, I don't think any defence can keep them to under high 20's points as an absolute minimum and I think the Broncos overperformed to do so. Mahomes had a touchdown run and pass and 304 yards through the air without giving up the ball.
Chiefs are back at Arrowhead for only their second home start and go to New England next week so will want that additional win and momentum to take there, with the Patriots having played Thursday this week and with those additional days to prepare. KC have been lauded for their offense, slated for their defensive side, but I have already pointed out that they are not so bad against the run and they will be looking to make Blake Bortles throw today and actually, on 3rd down defense, they are good and have allowed only 23% conversions, lowest in the NFL. After them in that category come the Ravens, Eagles, Jags, Vikings and Bears, defenses that all pundits get very excited over, so my thinking is that KC are not so far away from getting it together at least a little better defensively and, that they are nowhere near as bad without the ball as general opinion indicates.This feels like a big ask for Jacksonville who are making their first trip West with all games played on the Eastern seabord and verses Eastern teams and yes, I do know that KC is not actually in the West !
1.75 units Kansas City -3 points 2.0 Pinnacle/Vegas Line/Sportmarket Pro.
The Chiefs won 30-14 and whilst I, like almost everyone else, did talk about their amazing offensive options, I also touched upon their defense not being as bad as most were making out and definitely improving. KC have given up 23 points or less in 5/6 subsequent starts, 14 or less in three.
It is all about looking for underated areas of play, or teams , with improvement expected , or some cases certain to come and milking that until the oddsmakers catch up !
Good Luck.
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