Schedule for the rest of the week...........
It is the classic , old school format ..............
Email #1 @ 10.00 UK time covering all the Friday action.
Email #2@ 16.00 with exclusive focus on the Saurday "morning" J-League games.
Saturday 25/06
Email #1 @ 10.00
Email #2 @13.00
Sunday 26/06
Email #1 @10.00
Email #2 @13.00
These four emails will cover a mix of Copa America, Euro 2016, MLS, Brazil Serie A, PGA Tour golf and tennis from Eastbourne.
Busy weekend ahead and you can get a copy of all six newsletters by taking advantage of the clubgowi taster . As a sample of what you are likely to receive, yesterday's full newsletter is reproduced below............
Wednesday June 22nd
Next newsletter will be sent @ 10.00 UK time on Thursday when I will outline the schedule for the rest of the week.
WTA Tennis: Eastbourne: Dominika Cibulkova- Kateryna Bondarenko
I briefly discussed Dominika Cibulkova yesterday ............
Cibulkova has rarely played well on grass, has often suffered with the transition from clay and this is her first match of the season on the surface, or any at all since the first week of Roland Garros. Cibulkova is only 1.61m and Ostapenko has a losing record against short players ( 1-4 in the last year) and that is a slight concern. Having said that, her win came in the only grass court match in that sequence when she beat Carla Suarez Navarro at Wimbledon last year 2 & 0.
She beat promising teenager Jelena Ostapenko fairly comfortably 3 and 3 with the youngster making a lot of errors. Ostapenko had a bad day at work and might struggle against these shorter players and that was a concern going into that match, so I do not think we will read too much into that and despite Cibulkova being a player I like and one we have done well with, I do feel she is vulnerable on grass and that she will be far happier with the move to hardcourts.
Kateryna Bondarenko is a former top 30 singles, top ten doubles player, who fell out of love with the game and in love with a man, she "retired" from tennis and had a baby, she took two years off the circuit, but eventually refound her desire to play and re-dedicated herself to the sport. It has been a long hard road and results did not come easily, but things have started to fall back into place and she already has 12 main tour wins this year (just 15 in the previous three seasons combined ). She has won through two rounds here and qualifying , with the last three all going the distance and she is battle hardened on the surface. Bondarenko has always been unlike most mid ranked tennis players in that she has tended to raise her game against stronger opposition and she has dozens of wins over top 10 players. She has a very solid record against players who are under 1.68m, 5-2 lifetime on grass, winning the last five and a very nice 7-1 on all surfaces in the last 12 months, including two wins against top 10 ranked opponents. The circa top 20 ranked Cibulkova at 1.61m should be right up her street and this is a big game for the Ukranian in her climb back into the top 40. But I will keep the stakes small again on tennis today.
1 unit Kateryna Bondarenko to beat Dominika Cibulkova 2.78 Pinnacle Sports/Sportmarket Pro.
J-League: Urawa Reds- FC Tokyo
Ahead of the last round of games, I spoke about how J-League had played out with Stage 1 coming to an end .........
Where have all the home wins gone !
We are one match short of 15 rounds played in JL1 and home wins are running at 34.33% (away wins 39.55%) , this is an ongoing trend, 2013 saw 46.41% of games end in a home win. 40.85 % through 2014 and 38.56% last season. It has to stop somewhere and definitely feels way below where it should be currently and surely we will see an upturn in the coming months. Goals are correspondingly down too, which I suppose is to be expected, they have averaged 2.69 over the last three seasons and we are more than a quarter goal down on that at 2.42. We often look at these numbers and big dips and increases usually even out, at least a little, over the full campaign and we should expect an increase in both.
The nine matches produced four home wins (44.44%) and 26 goals (2.89 average) and was a step in the right direction and we will definitely return to that at the weekend. Today sees just one match, with Urawa and FCT still playing catch up, after today, all teams will have played 16 rounds and the action on Saturday will complete Stage 1. These two are not involved in that title race, but every point will still be seen as important in terms of the overall table and post season/Champions League positions.
At the weekend I previewed Urawa's trip to Sanfrecce Hiroshima and spoke about how they were running on empty ..........
Both teams played in midweek, Sanfrecce in Tokyo, which is a long trip and four hours on the fastest train and they are fast ! Urawa in Osaka, not sure if they stayed and then moved on to Hiroshima, or went back to Tokyo and then made the trip on Friday, neither is ideal and it is a coin toss which is the more unsettling/draining, so for me, definitely advantage Sanfrecce who would have been back on normal schedule by Thursday. Urawa also played two extra Champions League games and in the last 23 days they have played a home game and made trips to Seoul, Osaka, Tosu ( another long journey) and now Hiroshima and that is very demanding, especially for a team who had about a 4-5 week off season, playing their final game of last season on New Year's Day and a CL game on February 24th ! It is no wonder that the schedule is beginning to take a toll.
Petrovic spoke about the effect all this had on his team after the loss at Gamba, he admitted his team were running on empty, could not keep pace with Osaka early, got into things after the break briefly, but then just run out of steam and that they were "looking to rebuild" and get strong again after the next 2-3 matches were out of the way. They look to have hit a wall and the head coach as admitted as much and it is hard to see how they can be as up for this as the home side and their priority will surely be their two home matches next week.
They trailed early , took the lead before the break, but then seen to hit the same wall again and conceded three second half goals to lose 4-2. They could really do with a break and a game every 3-4 days right now must feel like punishment.
This is a traditionally high scoring fixture, the last seven meetings have seen 34 goals ( 4.86 pg), with six producing four or more. FCT have had just as gruelling a number of games as Urawa, but have barely had to leave the capital in the last month and have to be a little fresher for this "derby" game. 4.50 for the away win feels a little big and 4.0 for the visitors to score two or more (over 1.5) has to be wrong, given that Urawa have conceded 7 in three starts and two or more in 5 of 7 h2h meetings, but we can keep things simple, Two tired teams and mistakes are likely in a fixture which "always" develops into a shootout............
1.25 units "over" 2.75 goals 2.35 asian line/Sportmarket.
Italy - Republic of Ireland
Italy have won the group, they will play Spain on Monday, having had 24 hours less recovery time. They would not be Italian if they did not play 100% with that game in mind, they seem certain to rotate, Gianluigi Buffon has had a virus and might be rested and they will not want to pick up any injuries, or bookings for the six players already on yellow cards.
The Republic are in with a win, any other result would see them eliminated. The "bonus" is that they can progress with a famous win over the Italians, that would be long remembered, it would make the squad heroes and the Irish worship their sporting stars and the record books would not show that their opponent had nothing to play for, it is a huge prize and no one is going to give them a hard time if they fail, so everything to gain, little to lose. They were comprehensively outplayed by Belgium on Matchday 2, but should have had a penalty about 20 seconds before conceding the opener and that could have been a game changer. They will be fired up for this and will not worry about, cards, injuries or future games and I do expect them to win !
1.25 units Republic of Ireland level ball 2.36 asian line/Sportmarket.............I have changed this late from the straight away win as the level ball quote as just got too big and too close to the general -0,5 ball line.
Sweden have looked very poor at these championships and have yet to record an attempt on target, that doesn't augur well today knowing that only a win would see them progress and Belgium showed what they can do offensively and on the counter against the Irish. This is likely to be Zlatan's last ever game for Sweden and he would surely like to say his farewells in a far more upbeat game today, even if it ends in defeat. Belgium were tactically outplayed against the Italians, but the big names stepped up and confidence grew against Ireland as soon as they scored and they will surely want to build on that and take some momentum into the last 16. They cannot win the group and a point is pretty much the same as a win, but Sweden are going to have to open up sooner or later, but you do suspect it might be later !
The Swedes have conceded just one goal inside 39 minutes in 11 competitive starts and held out until at least the 81st in seven of those and I doubt they would be too disappointed if they went in level at the break, Belgium took 49 minutes to score against Ireland and I think our best option is play them "in running" knowing that eventually, Sweden will have to open up and then Belgium can play to their strengths.
1.5 units Belgium -0.5 ball as soon as the quote reaches 2.10, as long as they are not already leading and we are playing 11 v 11.
Not going to spend too long on this. Portugal have drawn both games, despite creating enough chances to have won 4-5 starts. Cristiano Ronaldo has had more attempts on goal than several teams at these championships including Hungary, but has yet to find the back of the net and you could feel his frustration through the television screen against Austria at the weekend, which I am sure many neutrals enjoyed, when he missed a penalty late in the game. He was obviously on a PR exercise early there with a broad smile on his face pre kick off and early in the game, after coming in for some severe criticism for his sulky attitude after the opening match, but that soon disappeared after the first couple of missed chances. He is not firing, but we have spoken so often about this, it only takes one goal and then the floodgates tend to open and for me, there has been plenty to like about the rest of their play and some of the youngsters ( see my preview of the Austria game below), look very good indeed.
Hungary have already qualified for the knockout stage, a point would secure top two and quite possibly first place, Portugal will be in with a draw, but would surely see that as "failure" and if a team need a win at these championships it is Portugal. It looks like England , Belgium or Croatia for whoever progresses from this section, but the group winner will be a decent quarter of the draw . To claim that spot, Portugal need to win and better Iceland's margin of victory, or score more, if the Islanders also win. I do not really see any stepping off the gas if Portugal take the lead, at least not from them, Hungary might do, with a huge match in what could only be three days time and already nursing one or two knocks, with a central defender at right back today.
1.5 units Portugal -1.5 goals 2.42 asian line/Sportmarket.
We mention them several times per day (at least), so I should say that
Sportmarket owner Per Hildebrand went close to a World Series of Poker title and bracelet overnight and we updated events a little
yesterday and
today on the clubgowi website. You can read full details and follow all events on the
WSOP website.
Not a lot to add to the morning notes, but I will have at least two previews for Brazil tomorrow.
MLS: LA Galaxy- Colorado Rapids
Rapids have been the surprise package of the season and lead the Western Conference with an avergae of over 2 points per game and having conceded a MLS low 11 goals . They are on an eleven match unbeaten run and have conceded more than a single goal just once in sixteen 2016 starts in all competitions. They arrive here on the back of a 2-1 home win over Chicago Fire at the weekend, they have not left the altitude of Colorado for a month and should have some small advantages from that today, with Commerce City 1,574m above sea level. They have been ending games strongly with goals after the 85th minute in each of their last three starts.
Galaxy are suffering a dip in form and have not won in six (all comps) and have kept just one clean sheet in 11 starts, that was ok when they were scoring freely, but the goals have dried up and they have failed to score in their last two and are short of offensive options right now. Robbie Keane and Gyasi Zardes are on international duty and Giovani Dos Santos and Steven Gerrard are doubts, the quartet have 16 goals and nine assists between them (Galaxy have scored 27), definitely out is right back Robbie Rogers who has had ankle surgery, he has missed seven games ( no clean sheets) since last June. On top of everything else, they played in Toronto on Saturday, so a long journey there and back on a quick turnaround and they have been vulnerable, when Rapids have been coming on strong, conceding in three of their last four starts after the 77th minute. They also play the Clasico game with San Jose Earthquakes in front of a massive crowd on Saturday and will surely have that at the back of their mind. Rapids look to have all the advantages and have to be the selection with the handicap start.
1.5 units Colorado Rapids +0.5 ball 2.04 asian line/Sportmarket.
Good Luck.
Portugal- Austria (written June 18th)
Portugal paid the price for some very wasteful finishing in their 1-1 draw with Iceland, they had a Euro 2016 high 26 attempts on goal, Nani scored, he should have had three and all the chances fell to the "wrong" men, by which I guess I mean..... not Ronaldo ! Ahead of the match my preview looked a lot like this ..............
Portugal were discussed in some detail in my pre tournament notes .....
Portugal should have won a major championship by now and time looks to be running out, their best chance is always in the Euros and they have finished SF-RU-QF-SF in the lat four, losing to winners France and Spain in extra time/penalties, 3-2 to Germany and cruelly to Greece in a final on home soil ! The really golden generation has passed, they have a world class leader in Cristiano Ronaldo and he is the focus of absolutely everything they do, but he will be 35 at Euro 2020, so I guess it is now, or the World Cup in Russia, or never ! We saw in Brazil at the last World Cup how Portugese hopes faded with the injury he carried into the tournament. He was nursing a knock through late April this year, but played 120 minutes in the Champions League final and I doubt if their were any real concerns that they would have let him spend a week on a yacht before joining his national team mates, instead of being in the treatment room. That is still a bit of a worry and everything they do offensively goes through him and they just have not been scoring enough, they have failed to score at all in 50% of games at the last three major championships, BUT odds of 18-1 are I feel simply too big and they look to not only be coming together under head coach Fernando Santos, but finally scoring a few goals, they might "only " have beaten Norway and Estonia in two warm up games, but they scored ten goals.
Ronaldo proved his fitness and scored a brace, but it was eight from elsewhere which offers encouragement. Eder ha resurrected his season /career after moving on loan for the final four months of the season to Lille and is hungry and fresh, he scored two, as did veteran Ricardo Quaresma who seems far happier back in Turkey with former club Besiktas and he and a number of this squad , like Pepe who is coming off a stellar season with Real Madrid ( despite the play acting !), probably realise that like Ronaldo,it is now or never for them.
Santos has big tournament experience and overachieved at the last two finals, taking a very average Greece team to the last eight at Euro 2012 and to the knockout stage of the World Cup for the first time, two years ago. They are not all veterans under his control, Portugal also have a handful of hugely promising youngsters Andre Gomes, Raphael Guerreiro, William Cavalho, Joao Mario and 18 yo Renato Sanches, who has taken Portugese football by storm and has just signed for Bayern Munich for a fee of 35€m that is likeyt to rise to 45m with add ons. He has been so good, so quickly that some rival coaches have questioned his age. He is unlikely to start, but Portugal have not only him, but a number of potential young game changers on the bench and in the starting eleven and if one or two could make the step up now, they could blossom. A player to really look out for is Joao Mario who might well be on his way to the EPL, the 23 yo has an amazing engine and will not stop running, that allied with great technical ability had him top of many "best midfielder in Portugal" lists this season and with an assist every 55 minutes in his last four apperances for the national team, he is clearly carrying that form into Euro 2016.
Austria, Hungary and Iceland make up Group F, I would consider those competitive rather than strong teams, although Austria have dark horse potential, but we can discuss that later in the tournament. Winning this section would keep them in the top half of the draw, overall that would be better, despite maybe having to face say Italy in the last 16, but I would not be as concerned with that as I would have been 2-3 years ago and they have a draw which could work out very well with just a little luck and if not, I feel they are running into form and can be a match for almost everyone and have the best player in the tournament. This is a squad that is often termed average, with one stand out player, but I feel they have some really promising young players, a good coach, are running into form and have some veterans in their best form for some time who know they are drinking in the last chance saloon. On top of all that, odds are good !
This is a weak looking group and Portugal will surely be looking to progress with the minimum of fuss and to build some momentum. Iceland are a tiny nation, but have produced a lot of good footballers over the last three decades, but never enough at the same time and this is their first appearance at a major championship, they have some talent and are capable of springing a surprise and the midfield is strong, but goals from up front are a concern for me and them too I guess, hence the reurn of Eiður Smári Guðjohnsen to international football. I saw him play a bit part for a poor Bolton wanderers team at Griffin Park the season before last and if you had said then, he would be at Euro 2016, I would have laughed out loud. He has been a great player, but was already 31 when he left Barcelona seven years ago and has had more clubs than Rory McIlroy since then. I know he will only be used off the bench, but it highlights what they have available by way of strikers, with top scorer Kolbeinn Sigborsson coming off a poor year at Nantes ( just 3 goals). Portugal should win, but they sometimes take a while to get going and even in the recent 7-0 demolition of Estonia, the breakthrough goal took 37 minutes.
Iceland earned all the plaudits for their battling defensive underdog display, but the truth is that they were very fortunate not to lose by three + and Portugal played much better than it appears and all their offensive stats for the game were very good indeed. A few hours earlier Austria had lost 2-0 to Hungary, this was a poor defensive performance, they were pressing high, but the backline was staying deep and there was a LOT of space between the two and when the wingers stayed high, which was often, this was criminally so. For the opening goal from Adam Szalai it was basically five Hungarians against three Austrian defenders and on freeze frame you can see the two central midfielder on the half way line and only one other Austrian in the defensive half, so half the team not even looking to get back. If you want to argue that Portugal look for Ronaldo too often, the same accusation has to be made at Austria and David Alaba and if the two teams play similarly to their opening games, and I am not sure that these are the kind of issues that Austria can iron out in a few days, only one team can win this.
