Schedule for the rest of this week............
Friday 04/12 email will be sent at the standard time of 10.00 UK.
Email #1 @ 10.00 will focus on Premier League, Championship and FA Cup.
Email #2 @ 11.30 will focus on the rest of Saturday's football fixtures.
Sunday 06/12
Email #1 @ 09.30 with all the early Sunday football action, plus the final round of the Hero world Challenge.
Email #2 @11.00 with round up of everything else happening today, including NFL.
Please note the early sending times on Saturday and Sunday.
NFL: Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions
I voiced my concerns about the Packers, at least in terms of odds quoted about them when I put up a "to win the Conference" bet on the Carolina Panthers a month ago ( reproduced at the foot of this email) and also ahead of the meeting in Wisconsin between these two just a fortnight later, when I spoke about the "overrated" Packers and my notes included ........
I am not a GB "hater", far from it, but they are a long way from the complete team and I have just not agreed with quoted odds about them and sub 2.50 to win the Conference two weeks back, was just a stupid quote. Anyway, let's start with them and after two really tough and testing road games, both of which they lost, they will be delighted to be at home and if they had to be facing a divisional rival in this game, it is the 1-7 Lions, who are not only coming off a 45-10 hammering at Wembley to the 3-5 Kansas City Chiefs , but who are 0-24 (!) here in Wisconsin , it also doesn't have the intensity of their rivalry with the Vikings or Bears. I expect Green Bay to win, but also perhaps surprisingly for the Lions to keep this close.
Detroit have shown good bouncebackability after heavy losses and their sole win this season came in the game following their only other heavy loss (to the Cardinals) and in a divisional game, last year it was the same and this is a team, like all pro sports teams should, who find a little extra when their pride has been hurt. Also,quite a few of those more recent h2h defeats here have been close, only 2 of the last 11 have been by 12 points or more, nine by between 2-11 and five by a TD or less and today, a 1-12 point win for the Packers feels about right, given that I also have issues with the home team and they are now under a lot of pressure to get the win and it is more about that, than a performance.
Even I was a little surprised that the Lions not only kept that close, but won 18-16 and rode the confidence gained from that to a win over the Raiders and demolition of the Eagles here on Thanksgiving and they have served us very well in recent weeks and look far removed from the team who surrendered so tamely in London. Ahead of that my previewed spoke about how they had kept Oakland quiet for three quarters ........Detroit recorded a shock win there and followed up with a 18-13 defeat of the Raiders here at Ford Field on Sunday, where they built on that huge defensive showing in Wisconsin and kept LA scoreless in three of the four quarters, they slipped up in the third and allowed the Raiders to head into the final 15 minutes with the lead and there was much to like about their final quarter comeback. The Lions have doubts about Calvin Johnson and Darius Slay and I would prefer both to play, but line movements indicate good news and that one or both will start and I favour the Lions to win this.
So, after two huge defensive performances, the offense went to town on Philly and the Lions suddenly look like a new , confident and improving team, but don't rush to your bookmaker just yet !
Green Bay opened the season 6-0 but stalled with the bye week and are 1-4 since and even in their win in that sequence, they did look in trouble early. I don't think that they are suddenly a bad team, just that they were not as good early as a lot of people (including the franchise) felt they were and we have simply seen variance take a hand and them perhaps return to their true currently level and circa 7-4 is probably a truer reflection.
Both teams have issues today and are going to make some game time decisions, but here comes the surprise, I like the Packers for this ! It is a huge, huge game for them, they really need to not just start winning , but to put some pressure on the Vikings in the division.
Lance Moore is out for the Lions and that is going to put even more focus on fellow receiver Calvin Johnson, who has been carrying on whilst nursing an injury for a month now and sooner or later, things and teams are going to catch up with him.
But why I really like the Pack this time and we are asked to give up a touchdown less this time anyway, is the return of Eddie Lacy, the running back missed the first game, he has posted back to back 100 yard games since his return and he has been a key player in the last couple of Green Bay victories over the Lions, running for 99 and 100 yards. He will give them a more balanced look this evening, if Aaron Rodgers receivers can actually catch, as opposed to drop a few passes and they can play as well as they finished their last two road games at Carolina and Minnesota, they can win this and avoid a Lions sweep in the series for the first time since 1991. Their pride has been severely dented, they need this, seem unlikely to shoot themselves in the foot so much again as in the reverse meeting and I take them to win and cover with a little to spare. Green Bay by a touchdown.
1.75 units Green Bay Packers -3 points Pinnacle Sports/Vegas Line/Sportmarket Pro.
This is an event we discuss most years and we have landed a couple of maximum bets in this mini tournament, which features just 18 players and is a non Tour event, which means it doesn't count toward the money list. But it is prestigious and only the crème de la crème of world golf get invited and we have an illustrious list of fomer winners. For the next three years it moves to a new venue, the Albany resort in the Bahamas where clubgowi favourite Justin Rose is already a member and that will give him an advantage of sorts. The course is very much links style with little by the way of rough, it has five Par 5's and Par 3's which is unusual and designer Ernie Els has described it as like Muirfield, which makes sense as he won an Open at that famous old course. Last time Muirfiled hosted the major (2013), Adam Scott and Zach Johnson both finished top 6.
However, others have mentioned the similarity to three US courses, Chambers Bay, Pinehurst and Whistling Strits and they have hosted four majors between them in recent years and one golfer has finished top 7 in all four and that is Dustin Johnson and the length and increased number of Par 5's should suit him perfectly, his Par 3 record was not that good in 2015, but he was ranked #6 on Tour in that category in 2014 and he played the short holes in -2 at his last start in the HSBC Champions event where he shot two rounds of 65 to finish in a tie for 5th and would have been much closer had his round not stalled at a crucial time early on Sunday and that was a very encouraging warm up. Johnson is a world class golfer who has yet to win a major, he put himself in contention for all four last season and has developed a habit of blowing big chances in those, I have the feeling he might get the monkey off his back in 2016 , now that he has turned from that always difficult age of 30 to 31 , but that need not overly concern us today. He is comfortable in the wind and likes it by the ocean, winning multi tour events by the sea. It is hard to pick too many holes in his chances this week and close to impossible to see him out of contention, he described the course as "awesome" yesterday and appeared really excited to be back competing.
I cannot really see him not being involved at the business end come Sunday and 2.50 for a top 4 finish is fine, given that we only have that elite field of 18 , but I will stick with 1.5 units Dustin Johnson to win outright 7.50 general quote ....there is around 2k available at 8.0-8.20 on Betfair.
Ligue 1 : Rennes- Olympique Marseille
It is easy to see goals in this game, both teams have scored in 8 of the last 9 h2h meetings, OM have scored on their last ten visits , at an average of 1.7 goals per game and have also got at least one goal in their last seven away starts this season and only leaders PSG and Nice have averaged more per game. The host have conceded in their last six and 9/10 home games. Both teams, especially the visitors, could do with all three points to force themselves back into european contention and each is far happier on the front foot.
Only problem with all that is that Rennes come into this game without Giovanni Sio, who is suspended, or the injured Paul-Georges Ntep and Abdoulaye Doucouré and that robs them of a lot of goal threat and offensive talent and 18 yo Jeremie Boga ( pictured) who is on loan from Chelsea is likely to once again be asked to lead the line and that is a concern. Not ability wise, the youngster is very highly thought of at Chelsea, but he is a midfielder and had not played more than 24 minutes in any game before the weekend and the West London club had already complained to Rennes about his lack of game time, he looked exhausted after an hour on Saturday and I doubt he is ready for much more this evening.
