CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying...............
Jan 27, 2022
World Cup Qualifying: CONMEBOL
Ecuador- Brazil
Paraguay- Uruguay
Chile-Argentina
Colombia-Peru
Venezuela- Bolivia
| Pos | Team |
Pld | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Brazil (Q) |
13 | 35 |
| 2 |  Argentina (Q) |
13 | 29 |
| 3 |  Ecuador |
14 | 23 |
| 4 |  Colombia |
14 | 17 |
| 5 |  Peru |
14 | 17 |
| 6 |  Chile |
14 | 16 |
| 7 |  Uruguay |
14 | 16 |
| 8 |  Bolivia |
14 | 15 |
| 9 |  Paraguay |
14 | 13 |
| 10 |  Venezuela |
14 | 7 |
Brazil and Argentina have already qualified for the World Cup finals, the top four go directly to the competition proper, the 5th placed team to the interconference playoff game , where they could meet Japan or Australia.
Most have four rounds left to play, one today and Tuesday and the other two in March and it looks very much like any 2 from 6 for the remaining "two" spots as Ecuador look good for third as they are effectively 7 points ahead on +10 goals, with every team below them on minus goals. Having said that, their two remaining home games are against the top two who are so far unbeaten. Venezuela are out of things and are very likely to finish bottom of the CONMEBOL group for the second time running (also in 2018) and they have won just 4/32 qualifying games, losing 21, so a bit of a surprise to see Bolivia priced at 6.0 + today. That is explained by the Bolivians being beyond awful travellers, winning 1/22 Copa America games played outside Bolivia and none of 52 in WCQ ( 7 draws) as I said , beyond awful.
Hard to know how Brazil and Argentina will approach these games, they are both missing their biggest stars, in Neymar and Messi and have no need to win, but are also unbeaten in qualifying and might not want to easily give up that record, also, competition for starting places is always fierce. Ecuador and Brazil played out two close games last year (each was all square entering the final 25 minutes and one stayed that way), Copa and WCQ, both in Brazil and Chile and Argentina also met twice within 10 days last June and both finished 1-1 and served us well, as I went with Chile +0.5 ball in each and there are notes on both below the "good luck" sign off. I spoke about the traditionally close nature of their h2h games and the last 10 have seen five draws and five single goal wins (90 mins) all for Argentina. Chile are motivated , but Argentina do not concede (none in last six starts and just 3 in 13 games) and are unbeaten in 26 starts and the most important thing for the hosts is to hang on in there, so a point might not be terrible. They are also with a key player of their own in Arturo Vidal and they are winless in six when he is absent, they have drawn 2 of the last 3 of those, including with Argentina and this fixture looks set to finish all square, or at least offer best value to do so.
2.25 units Chile- Argentina draw 3.08 asian line.
Good luck !
Copa America: (written June 14th)
Argentina - Chile
These two actually met 11 days ago in a CONMEBOL World Cup qualifier in Santiago del Estero in northern Argentina ...............
Early in qualification I previewed Bolivia and Argentina, speaking about the huge advantage the hosts have here in La Paz, but their poor form and it not being a vintage Argentine group.............
Messi aside, it is hard to see this as a classic Argentine squad , Lo Celso , Dybala and Aguero are missing too and defensively they look a little suspect. They did open with a 1-0 win over Ecuador which takes some of the pressure off and they will be pleased just to see the back of this round of fixtures. Bolivia on paper look poor, they are an almost exclusively home based squad with few names that any of us have heard of and they were hammered 5-0 by Brazil last weekend. But now they are at home with the 12th man behind them, that usually refers to a passionate home crowd, but with Bolivia it is the altitude in La Paz, we are not talking about the measly 600m in Madrid where the tennis ball zips through the air, or even the 1,574m of Commerce City where the Colorado Rapids play, but the 3,640m of La Paz, which is truly high altitude in sports terms.
FIFA has (three times I think) banned international matches at above 2,500m but later rescinded the decision each time. During the last World Cup qualifying process Bolivia finished 9th, but only lost twice at home, once to a team "used" to altitude, they beat five teams here including Argentina (2-0) , also keeping Peru , Chile, Paraguay and Brazil scoreless. Arguably Argentina handled the altitude the worst of all and they visibly faded within 30 minutes of kick off.
There are a couple of schools of thought about the best way to prepare, one is to spend several days at high altitude before you play a game, the other is to fly in as late as possible and try to "fool" the body into ignoring it ! Science would suggest that neither works, the first might be fine for tourists, not sportsmen and the Gatorade Sports Science Institute concluded that not even 13 days was enough for elite athletes. During the 2010 World Cup in South Africa which long term readers might recall we did a lot of work on altitude and there we are only talking up to 1,750m , players were running considerably less at even up to 1,200m and high intensity work (sprinting) was reduced by approximately 150% at 1,600m, compared to sea level. The total distance covered per min and high velocity running per min is hugely reduced at high altitude. It can affect people differently, some are violently sick for days , but it is a fair assumption that with finely tuned athletes where even a 2-3 % drop in productivity can be big and the difference between a good professional and a "star", it is a game changer and a great leveller . I will leave the final word with Neymar Jr, he posted photos of Brazilian team mates with oxygen masks before their 2018 World Cup qualifying game in the Estadio Hernando Siles and commented that it is "inhumane" to play under such conditions.
We are now 7 months on from the last CONMEBOL qualifier and this is just Round 5. Argentina won 2-1 that day and have 10 points on board, but all games have been close and it is rare that they put anyone to the sword. But those three wins and a draw leave them in a strong position to progress which is all that really matters. Chile have just 4 points and their need for a result today is greater, they have quite an odd squad with a lot of youngsters with limited experience, along with 10 players in their 33rd year or older and six with circa 100 international caps. The two nations know each other well, they have met 8 times in the last decade and none of those have been decided by more than a single goal and with these two meeting again next week in their Copa America opener, I think we can expect another very close contest.
That played out well for us in a 1-1 draw with both teams taking the only BC's which came their way.
Argentina then drew 2-2 away to Colombia,a game we discussed yesterday and Chile drew 1-1 with Bolivia ( see below), I went with Chile to win and BTS and that has to be viewed as a major disappointment as the hosts created 29 attempts, 17 ITB, 9 on target, with 4 BC's , 13 corners, hitting the woodwork twice , completing an additional 412 passes and were denied by six saves ! Think they win 8.5/9 times from 10 with similar numbers and they will be hoping for more by way of good fortune today. Given the competition format, meaning there is no real need for either team to win today and with h2h meetings almost always close, I have to stick with Chile.
1.75 units Chile +0.5 ball 2.26 asian line.
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