Ahead of the Round of 16 games I noted..............

 

 

We are now down to the semi final stage and this tie will be decided over two legs and we will again have a Big 6 final .

 

Juve are involved in a three way battle with Inter and Lazio for the title, with the trio separated by just a single point, they have won the scudetto for 8 straight seasons and will not give it up without a fight, but their real target for the season is the Champions League and the Coppa must be a poor third on that list. The last 7 seasons, Juve have been 9-13-12-6-9-13-20 points clear of the team in 3rd through 23 rounds, now just one, you can take that as a sign that they have gone a little backwards or that the opposition has improved, it doesn't really matter, but I think the former is more likely, either way, it highlights the battle on their hands and I would argue that they do not really need the Coppa. For Milan, one of the great Italian clubs, it is a very different story, they have 18 top flight titles but none since 2011 and their last of 5 Coppa Italian wins was 2003, they have nine European titles and four Intercontinental wins, but none since 2007 and they desperately need to kickstart a revival and it can only come in this competition. At present they cannot compete with the top 5 through 38 games, but can in a one off/ two leg tie.

 

Last month ahead of a trip to higher placed Cagliari I wrote .................

 

Milan trail Cagliari by 7 points in Serie A , but the season has been one of underachievement for the Rossoneri and the opposite for the Sardinians, who have been performing well above what statistics suggest and both trends can only continue for so long. Milan have a +100 net ITB differential over Cagliari for the season, +40 for the last five games alone, with only basement club Genoa having fewer attempts inside their opponent's goal than the home side. XP puts Milan 9.4  ahead and suggests they should have scored an additional 8 goals, with Cagliari scoring 13.4 fewer and conceding 4 more ! The numbers for this match up are incredible given the respective league positions and everything points to the away team being the significantly better of the two. It does feel like things are finally catching up with the host, who are winless in four, collapsed in the second half in Turin last week (conceding four) and they have given up two goals or more in seven straight starts, 17 total. On the minus side ,Milan have not scored in three, but have a good record in this fixture losing just 1/10 and have named an offensive looking squad and a good chance that we will see a first start from Zlatan Ibrahimovic after the old boy got 35 minutes off the bench on Monday. 0-2.

 

They did win 2-0 and are actually now level on points with the Sardinians, they have lost just once in 8 starts that came last time out and it was a painful one, 4-2 to Inter in the San Siro. However, they did lead 2-0 there and also created 4 BC's and hit the woodwork twice, so they can take heart from an hour or so of that performance, also, Zlatan was a big contributor , best player for Milan with a  goal and assist and we can argue that the result should only make team and player more motivated this eventing. They know they need a result to take to Turin and Zlatan will want to perform against one of his former clubs and with Cristiano Ronaldo on the other side of the pitch and the Swedish great, not at the back of the queue when self belief and confidence was being handed out, will surely be up for the challenge.

 

Juve have looked error prone at times this season and have lost 2 of their last three, away to a struggling Napoli team and to Verona who finished 5th in Serie B last season, both by the same 2-1 scoreline. Maurizio Sarri doesn't look or feel like a Juve head coach and has already had a "vote of confidence". He will be rotating with this the first of 7 games in 24 days, including a trip to Lyon in the CL and clash with Inter in the league, their upcoming league game with Brescia looks easy on paper, but is in just three days and that is a quick turnaround for an Italian side and extra pressure on that fixture given how close the title race is and recent form.

 

 

If Milan can just focus on what they did right (and there was much) as opposed to what went wrong in the derby game, they can take something to hold on to in the second leg.

 

 

 

 

Good Luck.