Derby day on Merseyside ................
Mar 03, 2019
Premier League: Everton- Liverpool
These Merseyside derby games are almost always close, but rarely won by Everton, with just one win for the Toffees in 20 Premier League derby games and that sole win was back in 2019, since when 4/9 at Anfield and 5/7 here at Goodison have ended all square, last two Liverpool wins in this stadium have come with second half goals, after a goalless opening 45 minutes. That is how Liverpool won the reverse fixture this season scoring a 97th minute winner after the match looked nailed on to finish 0-0, things looked brighter for Everton at the time and I wrote .......
The game at Anfield sees the home team quoted at very low odds, they have bossed this fixture in recent years, at least in terms of not losing and the Toffees have not actually won a Merseyside derby in 15 starts, but nine of those were draws including both meetings last season and Everton have upgraded their team significantly this time round. Liverpool are coming off that difficult midweek loss in Paris which puts them under huge pressure now to progress from the group stage, PSG were coasting there at 2-0 before giving away a needless penalty just before the break, which set up a much closer, more competitive second half, but no further goals. Jordan Henderson is suspended, but is more of a bit part player nowadays, however, several others are said to have picked up knocks (not named by Jurgen Klopp) in Paris and will be the subject of late tests. Everton and head coach Marco Silva have lost just 1/7 (an unlucky loss at Old Trafford) and had a free midweek to prepare for this. Silva has faced Klopp and the Reds twice before, with Watford and Hull , both last season and drew the first 3-3 and won the other 2-0. No team outside the top 4 have conceded fewer goals than Everton, they took time to take on board all that Silva bought to the party, but are very well organised at the back now, have conceded just 4 in 7 and arrive here on the back of two clean sheets including one at Stamford Bridge. The same is true of the Reds, at least in the PL and they have conceded 13 less than at the same stage last season, but it has probably come along with a slighty more conservative offensive game plan and right now their are below their best. They did win 3-0 away to Watford last weekend, but the breakthrough goal took 68 minutes and they might easily have trailed before that, with the Hornets having chances and feeling they were denied a "good" penalty at 0-0.
Liverpool have also won 2 of their last 4 road victories by way of second half goals and with passions high and Everton fired up, I think that is how this might play out also. Manchester City won yesterday to retake the lead at the top of the table and the Reds can only reclaim it with the win, they will also wish to keep the momentum up now after finally finding some real form in that 5-0 midweek win, to carry to Munich for the Champions League return leg (0-0 currently) against Bayern in 10 days time. Premier League is priority this season for Liverpool and we can expect a very committed showing today, but it might take time and I think best pre match value is ....
1.5 units Draw HT-Liverpool FT @ 4.33-4.50 general quote.
Good Luck.
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