The Don of MK ...........
Nov 12, 2024
2024/25 League 2 outright
Just over a month ago I took my first look this season at the League 2 outright market...........
Not much trend wise at this stage in League 1, but the 4th tier is worth a look.....
Top 3 go up automatically and one via the playoffs, so the last six seasons in which they have played the full 46 rounds (I ignored the COVID shortened 2019-20 season) makes 24 teams. Only three teams top at this stage of the season were promoted, all as champions, the other leaders all missed out completely. Ten promoted teams were placed outside the top 7 at this stage, which is a very healthy 41.67% and seven went up automatically. This is perhaps the most eye catching..... four were bottom half of the table ( 15-13-19-20) and three went up automatically! I would consider all four of those "bigger" clubs by League 2 standards and of those currently placed 13th or lower, Wimbledon, MK Dons, Tranmere, Carlisle and Swindon would make that criteria, with healthy 6,600+ average attendances.
I saw Wimbledon preseason and whilst they eventually lost and conceded 5 to Brentford, they played pretty well. They spent six straight seasons in L1 until relegation in 2022, they struggled the first season back in L2 but were 10th last season (4th for xP) and that gave them a base to build from and the season before their last promotion they were 15th. They are now established back at their old Plough Lane stadium , their head coach and his assistant recently signed contract extensions, the club is supporter owned and immersed in the local community. However, they are not exactly flush with cash, need to raise funds this season and some of that money now needs to be spent on the stadium after it was flooded, causing two home games (one cup) to be postponed and no knowing if there will be further issues, it is not a simple fix apparently and/or if it will cut up once played upon and that has to make them a pass, but they could go well.
In any case, I just cannot understand the odds quoted for MK Dons and they should be taken. Long term, 21 year owner Pete Winkelman has sold the club and stadium, leaving both debt free to a Kuwait-based consortium led by Fahad Al Ghanim and according to Forbes he comes from a top 10 ranked Middle East family owned business and they already have experience in running a successful football club. Following the takeover in August, Al Ghanim said:
"Let me be the first to reassure you that my ambition is to build on the fantastic foundations already here in Milton Keynes, and to take MK Dons to the next level, both on the pitch and off it.
"You will I'm sure have many questions about what will change at MK Dons, and the first thing to tell you is that nothing will change in the short term, no one will be made redundant, and the structure of the business will fundamentally remain the same. Our first focus will be on strengthening the first-team squad to give the club the best chance of promotion this season.
"I fully believe the team are in a great place, I'm not looking to disrupt the fantastic work done over the summer,if anything, I want to add to it.
"Over the coming months, there'll be a chance to assess the club and its functions, before making additions where necessary to help the hard-working and dedicated staff already in place at Stadium MK.
Dons were 4th last season, but were humiliated by Crawley in the playoff semi final, a club with far less resources and MKD were clearly impressed and signed the head coach (Scott Lindsey) and two key players from the Crawley squad and another from 23/24 champions Stockport County, so added a lot of know how and experience of being a L2 success. In total they added five players from L1 and strengthened an already decent squad across the board.
In the last week or so they also signed free agent striker Scott Hogan who has played the last ten years, some of which were injury hit, at Championship level, over 250 games total. He started that decade at Brentford before being sold for a big fee to Aston Villa. I do not know how much talent Scott has left , but he scored 17 goals in 33 games in his only ever season in the FL below Championship level and he was the best pure goal scorer I have seen at Brentford in the last 30 years, that includes Ollie Watkins, Ivan Toney etc, the most natural goal scorer of the lot.
Anyway, in their last two campaigns at this level Dons were 13th through 10 rounds (3-6-1 with a 10-8 goal difference) in 2018-19 and finished 3rd, last season 11th at this stage (4-2-4 16-16 GD) and ended up 4th. This season they are 14th (3-3-4) with a 13-12 goal difference, all pretty similar and I do not think that anyone will be panicking after that slightly sluggish start. Least of all the Crawley brigade, as Town were 14th last season at New Year. Signs in the last four unbeaten starts which included a 5-1 away win that things are starting to gel. They are only 7 points off the top of the table, with 108 left to play for and League 2 hasn't really got started yet. Dons have a Championship stadium and set up, quality squad and should not really be playing tier 4 football and I expect them to put in a big push, as they invariably do at this level, never lower than 4th in four previous campaigns (4-1-3-4).
MK Dons
To win League 2 @ 17.0............. 1 unit.
Top 3 @ 5.0
Promoted @ 3.50 ..............2.5 units.
Top 7 @ 2.10
All appeal and feel too big, "you pays your money and you takes your choice"!
The straight win and promotion options for me.
Subsequently, MK Dons, who, according to their supporters, are coming off their best performance of the season in a 3-1 defeat of Swindon Town at the weekend , have won 4 of 5 starts (their last four, by a combined 11-4). They are now 6th in the table and have closed to within six points of first place...........
| 2024/25 | Overall | Home | Away | |||||||||||||||||||||
| P | W | D | L | F | A | Gdf | Pts | Form | P | W | D | L | F | A | P | W | D | L | F | A | ||||
| 1 | Port Vale | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 16 | +7 | 30 | LWWW | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 8 | ||
| 2 | Walsall | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 27 | 15 | +12 | 27 | XOWW | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 5 | ||
| 3 | Notts County | 15 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 23 | 13 | +10 | 27 | XWXW | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 13 | 8 | ||
| 4 | Doncaster Rovers | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 21 | 17 | +4 | 27 | XWLW | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 10 | ||
| 5 | Crewe Alexandra | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 25 | XWWX | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | ||
| 6 | Milton Keynes Dons | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 24 | 17 | +7 | 24 | WWWW | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 10 | ||
| 7 | Grimsby Town | 15 | 8 | 0 | 7 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 24 | WLWL | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 15 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 10 | ||
Everything feels pretty good, they are on a roll, have all that L2 promotion experience in the squad and on the sidelines now and Scott Hogan already has two goals to his name. They are also out of the League and FA Cup which I see as a positive and I am kind of hoping that they depart the EFL trophy tonight, which would leave just the league to concentrate on. Head coach Scott Lindsey said from his first day at the club that the players needed to be fitter and they look like he has at least started to address that and any extra time available will be better used towards that on the training ground, rather than on playing what are "unnecessary" cup games. If you look at this video (the first 4-5 minutes is enough), you will get a good idea of how Lindsay sets his teams up and his often unusual and well thought out formations with a hard pressing and very aggressive approach and "aggression" is very much his byword.
He speaks about "culture" and "work ethic" and you can see how he wants to build a team that is well prepared, plays good football and is (yes) "aggressive" and his Crawley side, battered MK Dons 8-1 in the playoff semi finals, so you can see why they were impressed and Crewe 2-0 in the final, teams who were a respective 12 and 15 points ahead of Town entering the final third of the season. Lindsey is very driven, super ambitious and has not even had a transfer window at Dons yet and when the January business starts, he will no longer have to shop in the non-league/bargain basement that he did at Crawley.
Rather incredibly, and that is the reason I am writing this update today, odds are little changed and MK Dons can still be backed at circa 15.0 to win League 2 and 3.0-3.30 for promotion and that makes very little sense to me. They also play 5 of their next 8 starts at home and a chance to continue to build momentum going into that transfer window and Lindsay knows that the better positioned Dons are by then, the more financial support he will be given and they already have a strong squad.
We know a bit more about them now than we did a month ago and I think I have to press the bet to win League 1 and would certainly suggest that if you are not already involved, that you strongly consider doing so now.
1.5 units MK Dons to win outright @13.0+ general quote......there is 15.0 available.
Good luck!
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