EPL betting preview: Leicester City- Manchester United

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EPL: Leicester City- Manchester United

 

All credit to Leicester City who sit proudly atop of the Premier league this morning, they have done incredibly well and have entertained along the way, with their EPL starts averaging over 3.69 goals and battled hard and clawed back more points from losing positions (10) than any other team. They also have Jamie Vardy, who is looking to score in his 11th straight top flight game today and for his personal place in EPL history.  However, they have ridden their luck at times and been outplayed for periods and the schedule has been very kind, they have not yet faced United, City, Chelsea or Liverpool and only took a single point from home games with Tottenham and Arsenal (more of that shortly) and eight of their next 14 starts come against "Big 6" teams and given that and that they are now leaders, the pressure is going to get cranked up and up.
 
It seems harsh to pick holes in their season, but they have not really met the best of the PL and their sole meeting with a "Big 4" team, the Gunners, left a lot of questions to be answered, ahead of that game I wrote .........

 

Leicester City have been hugely impressive offensively this season , are unbeaten after six starts and no team has scored more goals, but they have conceded nine, which is on a par with three of the bottom four and there is only so often you can give up 1.5 goals per game and get a result. They were 2-0 down at Stoke City last week and two down at home to Aston Villa before that with 18 minutes to play, ahead of that match I wrote ....
 
City have been proving fun to watch, they have yet to keep a cleansheet, or taste defeat, scoring 12 goals themselves , Villa are struggling defensively conceding 11 in their last four EPL away starts, that includes a 1-0 win at Bournemouth, where they should have conceded at least twice, they also shipped three at home to League 2 Notts County in the Capital One Cup and two at Villa Park to Sunderland and Tim Sherwood has a big ask sorting out his backline. He is a very offensive minded coach anyway and always wants to play on the front foot, it was always going to be tough to replace Christian Benteke, but his team have been creating chances and have a big aerial threat especially through Rudi Gestede and the crosses of left-back Jordan Amavi and the same is also true of the Foxes who have scored a EPL high three headed goals and Villa showed a weak spot in defending crosses/corners versus Crystal Palace. We can surely look for both to be getting the ball into the box at every opportunity and as quickly as possible and neither team looks likely to keep a clean sheet.
 

I can actually see improvement in Villa and when Amavi and Leandro Bacuna do not go quite so gung-ho on the flanks , or get protection they will look more solid and Sherwood is looking to address this with a change in formation ( but been unable to work on it over the break, with key players away on international duty) and whilst I see the visitors having more than a 20% (5.0) chance of winning this, they are another team who will probably be stronger in 3-4 weeks time. For today, I suspect they will need to score at least once and probably twice to get something out of this .

 

Prior to those two games, City were behind at Bournemouth with 4 to play and to Tottenham with 9 minutes left, well, you get the picture ! Very resilient and tough to put down, you need the stake through the heart and to nail the coffin down to make sure they are out of the game, but they will give you chances and this is the first Big 4 team that the Foxes have faced and four of their six opponents to date are currently bottom 7 and this will be a real test. Arsenal have a vital Champions League game in midweek, but simply cannot afford to let this game slide after losing to Chelsea last week and being desperate to get into the title race, they will take heart from the North London derby win over Spurs in midweek and I favour them to win this. The Gunners have been creating plenty, but misfiring infront of goal with the worst conversion rate in the EPL and star player Alexis Sanchez has been the main culprit with a league high 31 missed attempts. However, I prefer to think of it as the floodgates being about to open, as you do not keep quality like the Chilean Copa America winner out of the limelight for too long. The visitors have won 19 of the last 20 starts in which they have taken the lead and if City are as free and easy with their ways today, this can only end with an away win and if the hosts have to gamble, it could be an emphatic victory.

 

Quite pleased with those notes and not just because Arsenal won 5-2 and whilst United have struggled for goals at times, they do pose an offensive threat and on the few occasions we have seen them cut loose this season, it has been as likely to be on the road (three or more goals at Brugge, Everton and Southampton) as at Old Trafford and the visitors will get more space than they usually enjoy to exploit today. United will also have a nightmare last appearance at the King Power to erase from their memory, 3-1up  with an hour played, they somehow found a way to lose 5-3 and that will still be very raw in the memory. I am not quite expecting a repeat of that, but it is easy to see goals , City are vulnerable at the back and will be asked more questions today than they have been over the last two months since the Gunners were in town, I think United might edge this to go top of the table, but feel that there is far better value with .............1.5 units "over" 2.75 goals 2.42 asian line/Sportmarket.

 

Good Luck.

 

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