France: Ligue 2 betting tip: Clermont- Stade Brest
Oct 29, 2018
France: Ligue 2: Clermont- Stade Brest
I have not previewed many Clermont games since very early season, but back in September touched upon their budget, how that forces them to operate and players they had lost in the off season...............
I have spoken often of Clermont as a club who almost always overachieve on limited funds in a rugby playing area of the country, they have a budget of just 6.8m which is less than a third that of Auxerre (21m) and this season the second lowest in Ligue 2. That makes it difficult to keep hold of anyone who shows ability and last month I wrote ...........
The visitors (Clermont) have lost a LOT of talent from last season goalkeeper Paul Bernardoni, central defender Thomas Fontaine and Nicolas Gavory have all moved on , the trio only missed 8 games between them in 17/18, striker Ludovic Ajorque has been sold and veteran forward Remy Dugimont is sidelined meaning they are without their 32 goals (25 and seven assists) contribution, which is over 59% of what Clermont scored.
They currently sit midtable with a 2-2-2 record and are coming off a confidence boosting 4-0 win at Valenciennes immediately before the break and again do look booked for mid table which is tremendous given those resources. Dugimont has not joined Auxerre but will not play tonight again his former club.
They are currently 11th in Ligue 2, with a 3-5-3 record, their games tend to be tight, as that indicates, only averaging 1.91 goals per game, they have scored just once, conceding twice, in their last four starts. Head coach Pascal Gastienlikes his team to see plenty of the ball and I don't think it is any coincidence that their only home defeat and 3 of the 4 goals conceded here came against Metz, who had 60% of the ball that day.
Brest can move level with Metz at the top of the table with all three points and are very comfortable on the road, as discussed ahead of their last away start a trip to Valenciennes earlier this month ...................
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They (Valenciennes) have conceded 12 goals in four league starts and look vulnerable to perhaps the best traveller in Ligue 2 in Brest, something which we touched upon last week, despite them being at home ..........
Worthy winners, but the level of oppositions goes up a notch today with Brest unbeaten in four and up to 4th place. Ahead of a trip to Auxerre at the very end of last month I wrote ......
Brest are a good road team under offensive minded head coach Jean-Marc Furlan (pictured) and are 19-12-9 in away league starts (47.5% win rate) since the start of 2016-17, with those games averaging over 2.5 goals, that average has gone up to 3.0 pg since the start of last season and the midweek 3-3 draw away to Le Havre has done little to dissuade thinking about how they will approach today.
They won that 2-0 and have subsequently won away at Grenoble (2-1) and at home to Gazelec (4-1), they are playing well and scoring goals, have missed a few chances and rode their luck a little at the other end, but have a lot of confidence and we can say now that no one is going to win much this season in Ligue 2 by playing scared and I no longer see Brest as that team , Furlan has now got them looking like a JMF side . I feel both teams having a bigger goal threat than we have so far seen and this is a game which has traditionally produced goals with 5 of the last 6 h2h meetings going "over". Brest have won 5 of the 6 meetings as host, scoring 2+ in all six and they have also scored 6 in the last three games as visitor.
Brest won 5-1 and are now up to 3rd and with the top two not playing today, would go first with all three points which is a massive incentive.
That road record is now up to 21-12 -9 and if only watching them for five minutes it is easy to see why, they have not conceded a goal in four visits to Valenciennes (three wins) and I expect to see a 4th today and excellent value , for a team playing out of their skin, with a big incentive and who have lost under 22% of 42 away starts !
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Brest won 3-1 and followed up with a 3-2 defeat of fellow promotion hopefuls Lorient, that makes 2+ scored in their last 7 starts at an average of 3.14 pg and they are an excellent 22-12-9 on the road , that's a 51%+ win rate and they can clearly play to their strengths away from home and look way stronger than the group who finished 5th last season, when they nonetheless did the double over Clermont. Top scorer for the hosts is young striker Florian Aye he has 4 goals and two assists, but all came in his first six starts, none in the last five and no other forward has a goal and this is a major concern, especially against such a free scoring opponent.
There are some pre season notes on Brest below the "good luck" sign off.
1.75 units Brest -0.25 ball 2.39 asian line/Sportmarket.
Clermont : Jeannin, Patron - Albert, Kavdanski, Laporte, N'Simba, Ogier, Phojo, Sissoko - Gastien, Iglesias, N'Diaye, Pereira Lage, Perez, Sari - Andriatsima, Ayé, Honorat.
Brest : Larsonneur, Léon, Bernard, Chardonnet, Belaud, Henry, Weber, Castelletto, Belkebla, Pi, Magnon, Diallo, Ayasse, Faussurier, Autret, N'Goma, Charbonnier, Butin.
Only one goal inside the opening 30 minutes in Clermont home games this season, Brest have not scored on the road through that same period, but are an eyecatching 9-1 ( scored -conceded) in the last hour of away starts.
Good Luck.
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