Free clubgowi newsletter ...................
Nov 27, 2018
clubgowi send out a free newsletter once or twice per month, occasionally more, there was one yesterday, it is quite a bit shorter than normal, but included, I feel, two good previews for yesterday's sport, one was a winner, the other lost, but as I wrote in the email, I feel both give good clues for the future and as such, highlight what clubgowi are trying to do.
Monday November 26th
Next free newsletter will be sent in two weeks time and will be the first of at least two in December, no clubgowi "offers" at present , so, no sales pitch beyond the usual one for Sportmarket Pro, but that is only doing you a favour !
"You bet, you need Sportmarket Pro !
Otherwise there are just a couple of previews which I hope you will find of interest.
2) NFL and Ligue 2 previews for today.
Below are two sample previews from today's newsletter, which was sent to subscribers earlier this morning. I am not really trying to provide you with "winners" in the free newsletter, just samples of what is sent out on a daily basis . Obviously, I hope they win, but variance is going to play a huge part when you are only seeing a tiny percentage of the output. Anyway, notes on all four teams should have some additional value going forward and not just for today and I would definitely put up Gazelec as a potential improver and/or a team who will be very different in the coming months to the one we have seen in recent campaigns.
NFL: Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans
I have sided with the Titans for their last four starts, winning three, most impressive was the 34-10 defeat of the Patriots two weeks ago.............
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Patriots have won their last 6, two were on the road, one at the hapless Bills, the other against the Bears in Chicago where they conceded 31 points and it could have gone the other way. They lost two on the road early, Detroit and struggling Jags and gave up 26 and 31 respectively, losing by a combined 27 points. I think they are a little more vulnerable defensively this season and yes, Brady, Gronk and Belichick are all still the same, albeit yet another year older, Rob Gronkowski is out today and they are not the same without him in the line up away from Foxborough.
Titans beat the Cowboys on Monday in Dallas..........
I sided with the Titans and a 5 point handicap start for their last game, which was at Wembley against the Chargers when my notes included ..........
Titans looked good at 3-1, but have since lost to the Bills and were held scoreless by the Ravens last week. They can get blown away, but are usually at their best when they can hang in there and they have won 5 of 6 when games are decided by under a TD, Chargers are the opposite and only one of their last 11 wins has come by under a TD and it is easy to see TT ending this stronger if they can stay in touch, with a good chance that LA could also tire. Charger RB Melvin Gordon has been the star of the show in recent weeks, but is said to a game time decision today and even if passed fit, might not be called upon so much, or be as productive.
Chargers QB Philip Rivers releases the ball very quick, staying in the pocket for just under 2.4 seconds per drop back, Titans have players , mainly Harold Landry who are very quick off the edge and a couple of mismatches for them and this is one team who could really pressure Rivers, however quickly he looks to dump the ball off. I like Tennessee to keep this close and maybe edge it.
Chargers were on top early, but it played out as planned, Titans stayed close and got to within a point with almost the final play of the game, they opted to go for a two point conversion and the win, rather than taking it into overtime, it was a brave decision, but they came up short. Now they have had a bye week to rest up , get some players fit , QB Marcus Mariota is said to at long last be 100% and that could be key with the Cowboys good against the pass and the Titans offense having incorporated so many read-option plays with a quarterback keep into its scheme.Mariota has 31 rushing attempts for 185 yards and a touchdown this season and Dallas have been vulnerable to a mobile QB (Cam Newton in Week 1).
Dallas have been busy this week giving up a #1 draft pick for Amari Cooper and replacing offensive line coach Paul Alexander, not everyone is happy with all this and it does smack a little of desperation, better to be proactive I guess, but they obvious feel what they have or had wasn't working and most changes take time and are not an instant fix.
Titans are 6-7 since last mid November, five of the losses came by between 1-5 points, only one by more than a TD, three of Dallas' last four games have been decided by 3 points or less and there is every reason to believe that this will be similarly close and played how the Titans like their games. The visitors are also good on MNF, 5-1 in their last six starts, loss came with a back up QB and when they were a massive underdog, they led by 11 points at the end of the third quarter, lost by 3, in all MNF games they are 12-6, 6-3 on the road. Titans held the Philip Rivers led Chargers, who are 6-2 and impressed in Seattle last night to just 20 points (their lowest of the season) and 14 first downs (Cowboys are ranked 30th for FD's). I like TT plus the points again.
They have a day less to prepare, which is never a plus, especially versus the Pats, but they won that comfortably 28-14 and had the bye week before that, Mariota had a passer rating of 119.9 and rushed for 32 yards and a TD. They were VERY efficient on third down and had a nicely balanced offense and there was much to like about that win. Titans head coach Mike Vrabel spent eight seasons at the Pats alongside Brady and under Belichick and knows a lot about how they will approach this game. Pats have a bye week after this, are once again in control of the AFC East and must be under huge tempation not to risk any of a number of players carrying knocks in addition to Gronk and give them a couple of weeks to recover.
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Some good stuff within that preview and it played out pretty much as expected, however, the Titans came back down to earth last week, losing in Indianapolis to a fast improving Colts team. That was over before it begun, Titans never got into it, Andrew Luck had one of those days (passer rating 143.8) and Mariota had one too, but the other kind, he completed 10 of 13 passes for 85 yards and an interception, before leaving the game late in the second quarter with a "stinger" ( a nerve injury that causes pain and numbness from the neck down one arm), this is noteworthy as he suffered nerve damage to an elbow in early season. He missed Week 2, guess what game that was (?) the home meeting with the Texans ! Tennessee won, but stand in QB Blaine Gabbert was not asked to do much, just 13 completions for 117 yards, one trick play and a couple of 4th down conversions were the difference, but the Texans were struggling a little at the time, still put up 150 +yards of offense more and I bet they wish they could play that game over again ! Mariota has been passed fit to play, but I am always wary of injury recurrence and this sounds very similar.
I was big on the Texans for a Thursday Night game with Miami a month ago ...........
Houston have gone the other way, they started 0-3, but have won their last four with wins over the Colts,Dallas, Bills and a 20-7 win against the Jags on the road last Sunday. The Jags are struggling, but to go to Jacksonville and win like that , when you did not feel your QB was fit enough to fly and made the 12 hour journey by road, was super impressive. That decision was made because of the effects of a pressurised cabin on his issue, but it made no difference, they kept the Jags scoreless in three quarters and are at home today, so no more travel for Deshaun Watson (pictured) and 8-9 days before he will be asked to fly again. The whole team stepped up a level around and for the young QB, he was sacked just once by the feared Jacksonville defense, after the Texans gave up 25 in their first six starts and Watson was interception free. There is really something for the Texans to build on now and Watson showed last season, his rookie year, before his injury that he improved with games (passer rating 60-90 in his first three starts, 103-125 in his next and final four).
However, it is Miami I am looking to take on, they have 119 first downs which places them 27th in the NFL and have allowed 155 (26th), the Texans are 12th in both categories, circa 5.5 per game better in both. Only the woeful Cardinals and I have highlighted their problems, have had less possession than the Dolphins (27:03) and they have been significantly under that in 2 of their last 3 starts. This next set of stats I feel is really bad, last year they were ranked 25th for second half points scored on the road (8.1 pg) this season they are way down on that low number to 3.3 pg, in all games they are giving up 17.6 points (ranked 31st) in the SH, for their last three starts that rises to 23.3 , Houston have been a steady 10 in this category all season (improvement from 12.4 last year) and simply look too solid for the Fish, especially after their half time orange !
The handicap feels big, but the second half numbers are the clincher and when we should be able to cover, of course, you can also wait and get involved at HT and that is definitely an option.
Houston won that 42-23 (it was not that close !) and have subsequently beaten Denver and the Redskins both narrowly, with a bye week sandwiched inbetween. Add in the 8 days to prepare for this to that 14 day break and the Texans should be amongst the fresher teams this weekend and one of the most in form , having won 7 straight.
The AFC South looks like this .........
Texans 7-3
Colts 6-5
Titans 5-5
Jags 3-8
The Texans look in control and will be if they win, but the top 3 are all 2-1 within the division and if they lose, both the Titans and Colts will be within one game and Tennessee would hold the h2h breaker over Houston. It is a massive game for both.
If the Texans needed further motivation it came in a sad way last week with the franchise’s founding owner Robert McNair, passing on Friday after battling cancer for many years, his son and chief operating officer Cal McNair is expected to inherit the team .
The Texans have lost 3/4 h2h , but largely dominated the series in recent years winning 9 of 13 and all those wins were "big" all 9 by 6+ points at an average of 19.3 ppg, with seven by at least 14 points, including an almighty 57-14 win here over the Titans last year.
I like the Texans, who have looked very good in recent weeks and they received a major boost with linebacker Zach Cunningham and cornerback Aaron Colvin set to play after being sidelined for multiple weeks ( missing 2 and 6 games respectively) with injuries.
1.75 units Houston Texans -5 points 2.13 Vegas Line/Pinnacle/Sportmarket Pro.
Ligue 2 : FC Metz- Gazelec Ajaccio
Metz are top of Ligue 2 on goal difference with these game in hand, their five closest challengers all dropped points over the weekend, which definitely eased pressure on them and they could open up a six point advantage over the team in third with the win tonight. Gazelec are 14th with 18 points, the team in the relegation playoff spot has 14 points, the one in the final promotion playoff place has 27, so they would move closer to the latter than former with maximum points.
The host started their campaign with 7 staright wins, they are 3-1-3 subsequently and have lost 3/4 at home (one cup) and their only win in four starts (again, one cup) came last time out at Chateauroux 17 days ago, ahead of which my notes included.................
Metz started the season playing very solid defensively, but then went on a run of conceding in 9 of 11 starts (all comps) they were still winning most, but they are only so many times you can rely on your offense to get you out of trouble and as the season progresses,opponents have more data on you, that was doubly so in Metz's case as they played L1 last season and, you need to continue to evolve to stay ahead of the pack. Now the goals have dried up a little ,only one in three starts, from which they have taken just a point and they have been held scoreless in 3/5 Ligue 2 outings. They remain top of the table, helped by blips of one kind or another from the other top teams, but the whole pack has closed up and now ,the top half of the table are only separated by 9 points (they had that advantage over the team in 6th just a 5-6 weeks ago). They lost 1-0 at home to Auxerre on Monday, the away side remain in 17th in spite of that and although we have spoken of them as better than the league table indicated, it was still a shock win. Having said that, Auxerre had six attempts on target , 10 corners, five big chances and missed a penalty, they domintaed most offensive categories and Metz managed just a single real attempt on goal . It is clear that the leaders level has dropped and that they are vulnerable right now.
Hard to know what to really make of that as Chateauroux led, before a very early red card and penalty awarded against them turned the match around and the home side played 82 minutes a man short.
Gazelec have had a roller coaster ride and it has certainly not been boring to support them, they were in the 4th tier in 2011, Ligue 1 in 2016 , with four promotions and two relegations across the last 7 years ! This is their third season back in Ligue 2, 9th two seasons ago and 16th in 17-18 and another bottom half finish looks on the cards unless they pick up soon. Last month they changed head coach with Hervé Della Maggiore, replacing negative Albert Cartier who always had a defence first attitude. That could not be said about Della Maggiore who was in charge for many seasons at Bourg Peronnas, who played very open football and are sadly missed in Ligue 2. His first two games in charge were defeats to Lens and Beziers by a combined 6-0, but he has overseen wins over rivals Ajaccio and improving Troyes , both by 2-1 which is very much his style of win (both teams scoring) and they were really quite impressive in the latter. Troyes are 7-1-2 in their last 10 starts and franked the form with a defeat of highflying Lorient at the weekend and with a little momentum behind them now and knowing Della Maggiore, I doubt he will set his side up to just sit back tonight and this should be quite entertaining.
Odds of 1.36 on Metz seem a little crazy and bear little relation to how I saw the game, the home side have a talented group, but we have not seen their early season level for a while and the visitors are on the up. I expect both to score and have to chance something on the away win, "over" is also an option.
Metz : Delecroix, Oukidja – Boye, Rivierez, Delaine, Sunzu, Balliu, Jans – Monteiro, Fofana, Angban, Cohade – Boulaya, Gakpa, Nguette, Diallo, Niane, Rivière.
Ajaccio GFC : Fogacci, Oberhauser – Puel, Camara, Guidi, Ba, Perquis, Campanini – Marveaux, Roye, Jobello, N’Doye, Anziani, Pierazzi – Armand, Gomis, Blayac, Boupendza.
Good Luck.