French Open Tennis: WTA betting tip: Jelena Ostapenko - Caroline Wozniacki

Jun 06, 2017
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Busy few days at clubgowi, we have four previews today ( you can read one below ) and what looks like 6-7 planned for Wednesday. What you can read for free on the website is only nowadays meant as samples of what the full service provides , the free to view results have been incredible and across an eleven year period and several thousand previews, but the paid service is a ten times better product as it gives you circa 35-40 games/sporting events previewed in similar detail each and every week. Offering great value and betting freedom and choice !
 
French Open Tennis: WTA: Jelena Ostapenko - Caroline Wozniacki
 
Lots of notes on Jelena Ostapenko this tournament and I have reproduced those from her 6-1 6-4 win over Lesia Tsurenko on Friday below the good luck sign off. The win was at least as easy as it sounds and the youngster who is fast improving and if not entirely over, then controlling those second serve issues, has looked incredibly composed and impressive here at Roland Garros. She followed up with a 2-6 6-2 6-4 win over Samantha Stosur who everyone was tipping up as a potential winner and that she wrestled back control of that after falling behind and against such an inform, experienced opponent, was a further indication that Ostapenko is now ready to make the next big leap forward. She hit 46 winners against Stosur, which is one more than the Aussies' three previous opponents had managed between them and if the teenage Latvian continues to play without fear, I expect her to win today.
 
She carried forward and reproduced her Prague form against Tsurenko here and also beat Caroline Wozniacki (pictured) in three sets in the Czech capital last month, that was their third h2h meeting, all came in the last 9 months, Ostapenko has won all, including two on clay in the last nine weeks, also beating the Danish superstar in Charleston 2&4, different type of clay there, but three recent wins will aid the already brimful of confidence "underdog". Ostapenko has won 45-59% points on return in those three meetings and Wozniacki is going to have to serve at her absolute max today and even that, might not be enough. She did brush aside a very good clay court player in Svetlana Kuznetsova over the weekend , but ahead of her win in the previous round over Catherine Bellis I wrote ..........

This is Caroline Wozniacki's tenth appearance at Roland garros and she has only made it beyond R3 once previously, she is not comfortable on the surface and cannot play to her strengths on it. She has some results on "dirt" but almost all on US clay which is very different, indoor or at lower level events. I do not think she is 100% fit, retired in Strasbourg last week and has not been asked a serious question yet, having faced players ranked 191 and 336. Wozzy is 4-7 here in RG v top 50 ranked players, two of those wins came in her "golden year" on the surface and the other two (Laura Robson and Karin Knapp) are both now ranked 160 +.

Catherine Bellis is just 18 yo and only turned that two months ago, she was the number one ranked Junior in the world and is already ranked top 50 in seniors. CiCi has almost limitless potential and I have been impressed that she came to Europe early this year and the French Open is her fourth event of the season on the surface, she has wins over Gavriloa in Madrid, Bacsinszky in Marrakech, won three matches in Rome and beat last years Roland Garros semi finalist Kiki Bertens 6-3 7-6 in R2 here. She has nothing to lose, no fear and is a super quick learner, she lost in two to Bertens in Rome and turned that result on it's head and has improved next time out against almost every opponent and should come on a lot following a 3&2 loss to Wozniacki in Dubai in early season, the Danish star served just about as well as she could that day, is unlikely to do so again and is not on her favoured hard court today. I would not rule out a "shock" win for the youngster, but will go with her taking a set.

Wozniacki won in three, but was in big trouble and behaving very badly when they came off court with light failing, Bellis was two breaks up in the second and the Danish player would probably not have won if they had started an hour earlier. Scheduling has been poor in Paris, some matches on Friday had no chance of being played /finished on scheduled courts and with rain forecast, they should have acted quicker to move some around. Wozniacki won that, but rode her luck and whilst she followed up over Kuznetsova, the real Russian did not show up, looked lethargic and very far from her best. Wozniacki says she is a morning person and did her warm up about four hours before the 11.00 start, Kuznetsova apparently hates to play early and did not go to the practice court until the last possible moment (this is something perhaps we can watch for in future) and that might explain some of her lethargy. If Ostapenko performs close to the level we have seen this last 10 days, I think she is the most likely winner and do not agree with Wozniacki as favourite.

 

1.75 units Jelena Ostapenko to beat Caroline Wozniacki 2.15 Pinnacle/Sportmarket Pro.
 

 

Good Luck.
 

Lesia Tsurenko - Jelena Ostapenko ( written June 2nd)

 

I wrote a lengthy preview of Jelena Ostapenko's match with Monica Puig on Wednesday including .............
 
19 yo Jelena Ostapenko is alreday ranked #50 and set to go far higher , I have spoken many times about her ability and also liking for playing taller girls like Puig and in March wrote ........
 
I first spoke about Jelena Ostapenko early last season and ahead of a match at the Italian Open , touching upon her promise, ability as a junior ,liking for tall opponents and issues with df's...............
Kristina Mladenovic has struggled since the Australian Open and is 2-8 in subsequent WTA events, today she meets promising 18 yo Latvian, Jelena Ostapenko, who has made the final in Doha and semis in Katowice this year and in 2014 as a 16 yo, won multi low level clay court tournaments and took the Junior title at Wimbledon . The pair have actually met once before, on grass at the All England Club last summer, Mladenovic the senior player won in two close sets 6-4 7-5, but she was in better shape at the time and Ostapenko was still coming to terms with life at WTA level. The young Latvian sereved very poorly that day, only 44% of first serves and 10 double faults and to still get to within four games was noteworthy, she won a LOT of points on Mladenovic's second serve and today, the Frenchwoman is going to have to up her game in that regard and we have seen no recent evidence to suggest that is likely and I do not see how Ostapenko can serve as badly again and the (currently) higher ranked player needs a lot to go her way to win this, IMO.

Ostapenko has won her last four against taller players and is 2-1 in the last 12 months against players 1.83m +, the loss being that close game with Mladenovic at Wimbledon. Those stats are not really surpising as she is currently being helped by Vera Dushevina, who I believe is now officially her coach, Dushevina is still playing doubles occasionally and only 29 yo,  she has a very similar build to Mladenovic and hitting with her day by day, means that Ostapenko is always going to be comfortable against tall opponents.


 
She won that 3&1, then beat Monica Puig 1&1 , before losing to Garbine Muguruza, Ostapenko then had a series of promising wins in the build up to mid summer seeing off Kvitova and Pavlyuchenkova amongst others, but then was a little unlucky with draws in major events, running into players early who went very deep/won tournaments and here confidence took a bit of a bashing and 2016 could not end quickly enough. As often happens, players can regroup over the off season and she has played pretty well this year, winning seven hard court matches and taking Karolina Plskova to 10-8 in the third set in the 3rd round at the Australian Open. In those notes from last year, I did speak about her service and she needs to address this and her poor first serve stats are putting huge pressure on her second, actually, those SS numbers are pretty good in truth in terms of points won, but are mixed with far too many double faults and I am talking a lot ! If she can just limit those a little, wins will come far easier, but it is a major issue and "in play" you can always look to oppose her at present if she is short odds to "hold" serve at key moments in big games.
 

I do not see that as a overriding issue today, or early in tournaments in general and today she meets Danka Kovinic, whom Ostapenko beat 2 &2 in Auckland just last week. That was the fourth first round loss in a row for Kovinic, JO did not serve badly in that match ( still 5 df's), but was all over her opponents serve, winning all but three points on SS and 57% when the Montenegrin made her first. This is a quick turnaround, Kovinic is low on confidence and Ostapenko is going to have to shoot herself in the foot and probably load the gun for her opponent too, to avoid winning this with some ease.
 

She is not the finished article, still serves a lot of double faults, but is very good indeed when she limits them and not bad when she doesn't. Ostapenko won that day and has subsequently won 15 matches ( ten v top 100) on clay making the final in Charleston and semi in Prague and taking Muguruza super close in Rome.
 

Ostapenko beat Puig 1&1 in Rome last year (see above) not dropping a point when she made her first serve and that will give her tremendous confidence for today.
 

We went with Ostapenko in two and she won 3&2, was +20 (winners over unforced errors) and played really well, she was returning the ball very nicely indeed and my own notes said that she was playing the second serve return as well as anyone outside the top 20 and better than many inside it ! I also noted that she was taking a little more time with her serve and made just three double faults, which are low for her ( see above) and noteworthy. She looked very focussed and can go deep here.
 
Ostapenko actually played Lesia Tsurenko on clay in Prague just one month ago (May 1st) with JO winning 4&3, having a lot of joy on return and if the 19yo Latvian continues her own service improvement , this should also not take too long. The 28 yo Tsurenko has played 22 slams, only made it to R3 twice previously (both on hard) , she has a 33.7% win record against top 50 ranked players, which falls to 13.3% on clay in the last four years, with 7 of her last 9 losses coming in straight sets.

 

1.5 units Jelena Ostapenko to win 2-0 in sets 2.21 Pinnacle/Sportmarket Pro.

 

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