Friday April 21st .............full newsletter..............sent daily ........don't miss out !
There will be a follow up newsletter today @ 14.00 looking at the Saturday J-League fixtures. LGF for today's Ligue 1 game will follow shortly.
Ligue 2:
Troyes won that 2-1, which was great but did not help the "homes" much, however, they have produced at the rate of 42.78% since I wrote those stats and are now 40% for the season, with aways staying stable at 27%, we can expect those home numbers to continue to edge up over the final six rounds and they should end up not too shy of the previous low we discussed. That is what usually happens, leagues tend to play out roughly similarly year after year in terms of 1X2, it is just working out who will get what that is the difficult part(!), but to know that there is likely to be an increase in 1, X or 2 over a certain period of rounds is definitely a help and a great starting point. In case you think that a 6.35% increase in home wins is not much, it equates to 11.5 games across 18 rounds and is significant. The doctrine of marginal gains is all about small incremental improvements in any process adding up to a significant improvement when they are all added together and that can be appiled to analysing even the most basic of stats IMO.
Red Star- BEBP
The home side are without Jean-Charles Castelletto, Ronald Zubar, and Pierrick Cros (two players with that name btw, other is a back up keeper), they are all centre backs and that leaves Red Star very short handed today. They have named four "defenders", two right backs, a CD who has not played since December and made only 8 starts in the last two seasons and a defensive midfielder who is 35 yo, was brought in as a free agent and has played 130 minutes at tier 3 this season ! That is not good enough, this looks a fantastic opportunity for the visitors and I expect them to win.
It was a little bit of history repeating with the visitors again coming from behind to win, this time by 3-2. Red Star do get Jean-Charles Castelletto ( see above) back today, but are still a little light defensively and I really struggle to see more that 2-3 home players who would pucsh for a starting place in what I believe to be a very strong Nimes team, who feature in my notes most weeks. Last Friday I spoke about the huge number of balls they were getting into the box and highlighted that as a now underrated statistic that perhaps needed revisiting .............
BEBP had conceded three goals inside 13 minutes at BOTH Niort and Le Havre and gave up two each to the two "worst" teams in L2, they look vulnerable defensively and there should be goals in this for Nimes, who, as regular readers know, are one of my favourites and very well suited to playing on the road, where they have collected 24 of their 39 points this season.
My notes on their last away win are reproduced below the "good luck" sign off in full, they won 2-1 at highflying Amiens that day, but it is their last two starts, draws at Troyes and home to Gazelec we are probably better off talking about. They played well enough in both, dominating attempts, possession , corners, completed passes and did not allow Troyes, whom I also rate highly, a single attempt on target on home soil. ON also had a huge 65 crosses from open play in those two games, now crosses are a much maligned stat IMO and we could argue all morning, I have absolutely no intention of doing so, so please do not write, about their value or otherwise, but we, by which I mean "I" can discuss these more at some future stage, Suffice to say that I think they are far more relevant than some analysis consensus in recent years might have us believe, especially, when, like in this case, they are such a dominating stat.
I "know" Nimes are good, my numbers say top 2 and I have to side with them as strongly as possible today, time for an about turn in thinking...... "crosses are the new high/wide press " !
They won that 1-0 , the points took them into 6th and within four points of an automatic promotion place and with their next five starts against teams currently 10th or lower in the table, they have a real opportunity to kick on and put some pressure on the five above them. The time is right, they know that Sofiane Alakouch and one or two others will not be here much longer, unless they reach Ligue 1, they are very offensive minded and it should be three points or bust from here on in.
Two things happened at Nimes this week, oft discussed Sofiane Alakouch signed a three year contract, which surprised me, but is a massive coup for the club and it will take big money to steal him away from Nimes now and is a clear indication of their ambition. Also, over 300 of their most passionate supporters turned up for Nimes final training session and made a LOT of noise and the players appeared hugely motivated (well documented on social media) and thankful for the level of backing. Nimes just feel like a club on a mission right now.
Reims : Carrasso, Mendy - Amiot, Jeanvier, Metanire, Vallier, Weber - Berthier, Da Cruz, Devaux, Ndom, Rigonato, Rodriguez - Baldé, Chavarria, Kyei, Oudin.
BEBP went into February last year in 9th place and with 31 points, yet collected only three from their next six starts, today they are 9th with 31 points ! They had an increase in budget this season of around 30% and it is easy to see where it has been (well) spent, but that is still the third smallest in the division and they are currently massively over achieving and we have to expect a levelling out of that and soon and for all their recent improvement, it is still just 3 away wins in 25 Ligue 2 games for the visitors.
A month later I updated with ...........They lost that day and failed to score in their next two starts , including a 3-0 loss at an out of sorts Le Havre , so I was feeling pretty smug with my notes, however, they have won their two subsequent starts, but I think we can pick a few holes in both of those victories. Firstly, they came against the bottom two clubs in the division, Tours and Laval, they were behind twice in the former before the basement club conceded two late goals and "forced" woeful attacking side Laval into a shootout, something they are singularly ill suited to handle. BEBP had conceded three goals inside 13 minutes at BOTH Niort and Le Havre and gave up two each to the two "worst" teams in L2, they look vulnerable defensively and there should be goals in this for Nimes, who, as regular readers know, are one of my favourites and very well suited to playing on the road, where they have collected 24 of their 39 points this season.
Red Star FC : P.G. Cros, Sauvage - Palun, Hergault, Demel, Cros, Sarr, Mendy - Makhedjouf, Lefebvre, Chavalerin, Mhirsi, Sylvestre, Diaz - Sané, Toudic, Ngamukol, Baradji.
Bourg-en-Bresse Peronnas : Callamand - Fabri - Dikamona - Ponroy - Faivre - Perradin - Abdoulaye - Gamiette – Nirlo – Damour - Berthomier – Hoggas - Del Castillo – Bègue - Boussaha - Heinry.
Laval : Cappone, Hautbois, Perrot, Parada, Quintin, Afougou, Glombard, Alla, Coutadeur, Neyou, Bayard, Mo. Dembélé, Wissa, Saint-Louis, Nsikulu, Ma. Dembélé.
Strasbourg : Oukidja, Schmittheissler - Aholou, Bahoken, Blayac, Boutaib, Dos Santos, Gonçalves, Grimm, Guillaume, Lienard, Mangane, Ndoye, Saad, Sacko, Salmier, Seka.
Championship: Norwich City- Brighton
The Canaries have already won 13 home games and scored a Championship high 49 goals, at an average of 2.33 per game. Since their New Year fixture, Brighton are 0-1-3 on the road to top half of the table teams, conceding at least twice in each, ten goals in total and they were 3-1 down late in the draw in that sequence and it is hard to see them matching that battling intensity, were they to find themselves in a similar position this evening. There is also the small matter of revenge for City from a frightful 5-0 hammering in the reverse fixture which will not have been forgotten, the two teams were only separated by a single point at that stage and have gone in opposite directions since, City lost 7 of their next ten from that point and it could be seen as the catalyst for all that followed.
J-League: Gamba Osaka - Omiya Ardija
Omiya Ardija had a hugely impressive return to the top flight last season finishing a club-record fifth, they had completed ten seasons previously in JL1 between 2005-14 and finished 12th-16th in each ! That is a very narrow band and it is hard to think of them as anything other than relegation battlers despite such a fine 2016, when much went their way, they overachieved as both a team and individually, with Akihiro Ienaga scoring 11 goals, which was twice his previous best top flight tally and Ataru Esaka who, after only one season at JL2 level, stepped up to score 8 from midfield. They need something similar to repeat last year's heroics and I do not see where it is going to come from !
Ienaga has moved to Kawasaki Frontale and there were already signs in Stage 2 last season, that teams were handling Esaka better. Midfielders Tomonobu Yokoyama (Consadole) and Jin Izumisawa (Gamba) have also left and it feels like the team which had such a great two seasons has broken up and lost it's heartbeat. Ienaga missed seven stage 2 games last season through which Omiya were 1-4-2, posting a 7-2-1 record when he played, they lost 2-0 at home to Frontale last week and for now, I have to view them as considerably weaker and a team I do not want to side with until some of the newcomers step up and/or they prove otherwise.
This is traditionally a good fixture for Gamba, h2h wise they have won 9/10 in Osaka, six wins by two or more goals. They have won the last seven of those, the last four after being level at the break and 17 of the 20 goals scored in that sequence came in the second half. That is very much the Gamba Osaka modus operandi, they have always been a high possession side who tend to wear teams down and come on strong late in games and we can expect today to play out similarly. Kick off time lends itself to "in play" betting and we can look for odds of 2.25 -0.5 ball Gamba Osaka (current odds 1.97) 1.25 units before getting involved, as long as they are not already leading and we are playing 11 v 11.
Good Luck.
LGF Notes via clubgowi
Next newsletter will be sent @ 10.00 UK time on Saturday.
J-League:
Notes a bit on the brief side today..........
Seven rounds played, with home wins running at 38.1% which is about par for the course early season in recent campaigns and a low number of home wins until we pass the half way mark of the season, is now becoming the norm.
One team I wanted to mention was Consadole Sapporo who have really impressed me in two games I have watched and they have been posting some really big numbers, which back that impression up. Problem is that both were home starts and today they are on the road and facing league leaders and title favourites Urawa Reds, but on the plus side, they are 13.0-15.0 to win ! On the road they have lost all three league starts and have yet to score, but I am pretty sure that they are MUCH better than that and IMO, you should always go with the evidence of your own eyes where possible, especially if there are other signs that you might be right ! Sapporo have been creating a lot of good goal scoring chances and not been getting the run of the ball , I looked at their 3-0 loss away to Yokohama and they had 14 (12) attempts, 11(6) from inside the box and 11(2) corners, also being denied by the woodwork, Marinos numbers are in brackets. They had the only two attempts on target in the first half, when they also hit the post and that could have played out very differently. In back to back home games with FCT and Frontale, two strong teams, they posted some even more impressive numbers ,took four points and look a side on the up, also winning on the road in the cup inbetween. This is a huge ask, but there is up to 7.0 for them to score 2 or more (over 1.5 goals) and anything above 5.0 seems too big and circa 2.0-2.05 for both teams to score (1.5 units) looks generous and there is bigger in places.
I expected goals when FCT hosted Urawa Reds last week .............
This is a fixture which is always fun to watch, it is kind of a derby, Urawa play in Saitama which is part of Greater Tokyo and that ensures this match up is always hard fought. There are recent notes on both teams below the "good luck" sign off and we have spoken in great depth about the increased offensive threat that FCT pose this season. They have scored 16 league and cup goals already, but have shipped five themselves in their last two and it could/should have been more. Urawa are the only team to score more this season, with 20 in JL1 alone, but have kept just one clean sheet in 7. They played a home AFC Champions League game in midweek which should mean they are not quite as fresh as FCT, but goals are a given. The last five meetings here at the Ajinomoto Stadium have gone "over" with a 5.4 goal per game average, home and away that is 9/10 with a 4.6 mean.
Manchester United- Celta Vigo
FCT had a disappointing 2016, but were much better than that, ended the campiagn with four wins and off season business, including the signings of all-time J. League top scorer Yoshito Okubo from Kawasaki Frontale and Kensuke Nagai who scored 7 and had 4 assists from out wide in a relegated Nagoya Grampus team, plus an opening day win away to champions Kashima Antlers has created great excitement in the capital and it doesn't take much ! FCT-Nagoya last season was the most fun I have had at a non Brentford game, probably ever ! The hosts really appear to be really going for it and added Peter Utaka (joint top JL1 scorer last season) from Sanfrecce Hiroshima on a season long loan this week, he, Okubo and Nagai scored 41 goals between them in 2016, which is two more than FCT managed as a squad ! We will be talking about them plenty this season, but today is more "anti" Omiya, hosts have a poor home h2h record in this series , but I feel they offer value today.
They have subsequently lost 3-0 at a VERY good Gamba side (that was perhaps a reality check) and won twice at home in league and cup, by a combined 9-0 ! In the most recent of those, a 3-0 defeat of Kawasaki Frontale ,there was so much to take from the performance, not just the result. FCT created a lot of chances and Peter Utaka and Yoshito Okubo both scored their first goal for the club, Utaka made his debut in the 62nd minute off the bench, but still had time to score and assist for the third ! That is what you call an impact sub !
Okubo was facing his former club and where he topped the J. League’s scoring charts for three straight years before joining Tokyo in the offseason. There was huge pressure on him and 37,000 made their way to the Ajinomoto Stadium to watch and erupted when he scored in injury time, he had been influential prior to that and could have scored 2-3 goals. Afterwards he said: Everyone was asking when I would score my first goal but that just makes you nervous,I knew it would come but you’re still on edge until it does." But then I scored and I’m glad I could do it in front of the fans."
He has scored four goals in April in each of the last two seasons, plus a couple of assists and now the floodgates should open. Ukata also likes this month and the cheery sight of Sakura which will raise anyone's spirit and he scored five last April, after he had a goal and assist ( sound familiar) in his last outing of March immediately before the international break !
1.5 units "over" 2.5 goals 2.12 asian line/Sportmarket.
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