Friday's clubgowi newsletter..............
If you have not seen one before, this is the standard lay out, anything within the main body of the preview in this colour type is taken from earlier notes and is used to provide background information. Sometimes a preview from before is also reproduced in full, for the same reason, this is always copied and pasted below the "good luck" sign off and will include the original date it was written. Anything in the newsletter in bold type, is , as you might expect, considered to be of extra importance. The preview is always finished off with a red type suggestion, this is "important", but never as important as the main body of content for reasons we have discussed here on the website on so many occasions.
With regard to the three events discussed on Friday, both Ligue 2 matches were draws, 2-2 in Nancy, 1-1 in Auxerre. That gave us a win and two pushes (stakes returned), bit unlucky as Brest led 2-0 approaching the hour mark and Paris FC until conceding a 94th minute equaliser and they also missed a penalty when leading, hit the woodwork and then had a player sent off ! Also allowing the opposition just one attempt on target, but, as I always say, the ball is round and once games start anything can happen, all you can do is make good decisions, the rest is outside your control and we are not really trying to find winners, just advantageous positions, results will always eventually take care of themselves.
The tennis final went to three sets and I would like to look at a couple of lines from the preview ........" Three of their last four h2h meetings have gone the distance and I suspect this will too, both have come back from match points down already in Melbourne and this feels like a potential "in play" traders dream, just keep backing either at big odds in running."
Halep traded at 6.0 + to win the match (0-2 in games) and Wozniacki (pictured) at 3.50+ ( 3-4 a break down) in the final set alone, before they went into the final games tied at 4-4.
Many previews contain similarly valuable content and that is why all readers are urged to look beyond the red type.
The home side are struggling to win games, just four all season with only Tours registering fewer, they were unbeaten at home for a long while, lots of draws, but have lost their last two, to Paris FC and Le Havre, without scoring, those two are amongst the five teams chasing Nimes and that should both encourage and motivate Nimes. Nancy are in that situation we spoke about recently where unbeaten runs with lots of draws quickly turn the other way after a couple of defeats and the hosts have now won just 3 from 10 at home (6/20 since Christmas 2016).
Nancy : Chernik, Ndy Assembe, Cuffaut, Lang, Diagne, Fischer, Chrétien, Muratori, Badila, Abergel, Clément, Ba, Bassi, Barka, Robic, Koura, Hadji, Dalé.
The hosts gave themselves a chance of survival in the window bringing in several players, including Birama Toure and Mohamed Yattara on loan from Standard Liege neither of whom would have been "cheap". Toure returns to the squad today along with Yaya Sane and vastly experienced Ludovic Obraniak who has almost 300 Ligue 1 starts to his name. They are big options to freshen up a group who are coming off a confidence boosting win at Sochaux.
PFC are 10-7-1 since mid August, a loss to Sochaux where they did not play great, but we can forgive anyone an off day and to be fair, they could have, perhaps , should have won a couple of those draws and they have played at a high level for more than half this season.
1.5 units Paris FC level ball 2.25 asian line/Sportmarket.
Auxerre : Boucher, Westberg, Arcus, Youssouf, Tacalfred, Y. Sané, Ba, Polomat, Touré, Konaté, Adéoti, Sakhi, Sangaré, Philippoteaux, Obraniak, Ayé, Yattara, P. Sané.
Paris FC : Demarconnay, Ovono - Yohou, Bong, Sidibé, Delaine, Karamoko, Lybohy - Akichi, Nomenjanahary, Kerrouche, Mandouki, Ech-Chergui, Lopez, Alami - Tchokounté, Saint-Louis, Lavigne.
WTA: Australian Open
Caroline Wozniacki- Simona Halep
These two are super talented players who might never have won a slam, having gone 0-4 in finals between them and showing an ability to lose big matches they are well in control of, but today they face each other and the only certainty is that one will get that long awaiting prize after a combined 74 slams, of which, both have gone into several ranked #1 in the world. Whomever loses today, unless they break their duck later in their career, is going to spend a long retirement thinking what if and neither will have a better chance than when they step on court today. Both know that, they might say otherwise, but somewhere, at the back of their mind they know that. Despite those fairly dismal slam records, the two are fighters and will be prepared to give everything and then some today, they also, it has to be said can play their worst tennis when seemingly in full control of a match.
Both have done most of their winning on hard courts, but each has a losing record on the surface against fellow top ten players. Three of their last four h2h meetings have gone the distance and I suspect this will too, both have come back from match points down already in Melbourne and this feels like a potential "in play" traders dream, just keep backing either at big odds in running.
I have to see the best value as .......
1.5 units "over" 2.5 sets 2.25-2.375 general quote. You can get the same odds by betting both to win 2-1 in sets.
Halep notes from her quarter final win over Karolina Pliskova.....
Simona Halep will have welcomed her far quicker match against Naomi Osaka after that 4 hour marathon with Lauren Davis and, the Japanese player would have been a good warm up in terms of what she will face today, height and a big serve. Halep has not always handled those well, but did two days ago, although it has to be said that the real Osaka was maybe not on court. The Romania also has a good record against Pliskova, 5-2 overall, but 4-2 on this surface and 4-0 in WTA events, the two losses in Federations Cup. All four wins came in two sets and in the most recent (2016 Canadian Masters), the big serving Pliskova won just 38% of points on second serve and earned just a single break point, she had only two the year before in Indian Wells and it looks and feels like Halep has a good read on her serve and sometimes, that just happens. It is especially noteworthy as this is the type of player that she has struggled with otherwise.
Pliskova played several hours later in the day and in a match which lasted almost an hour and a half longer, beating Barbora Strycova 6-7 6-3 6-2 in a tense encounter where the two players intense dislike of each other probably wasted even more energy. Halep is exactly the height that Pliskova struggles with and she has a 50% career win record verses players under 1.73m, rising to over 66% otherwise, it is the players who come in at between 1.67m-1.73 that she has most problems with, I have no reason to offer as to why ! Halep in two sets for a 5th time in a row in a hard court main tour event match up.
Woniacki's ahead of her semi with Elsie Mertens.....
BTW when I quote stats like these, the opponent ALWAYS makes the criteria, so, for example, CSN is 1.62m and comes into this event ranked #40.
I don't think she is as strong mentally as she makes out and there are some basic insecurities there, I understand that five years ago some of the coaches above were telling her she had to change her game, all were sacked !
Anyway, she is 2-4 in grand slam semis, the wins were a retirement and the other against Yanina Wickmayer, who never made it beyond R4 in her other 38 slams (with 18 first round losses). In Premier hard court events she is 6-14 at the semi final stage in the last six years, with 5 of her six wins coming in three sets, so she has dropped at least one set in 19/20.
Of course, Mertens has no experience of any semis at any kind of top level, but the same was true of quarter final match ups before she beat Elina Svitolina 4&0 two days ago and she has barely played at this level, this is her first Aussie Open and she has played only four other slams. She is a very confident player, young in tennis terms at 22yo, more like an 18yo given how much she has played, appears to have few nerves and is not tired at all and said after her QF that she would practice for an extra hour today.
Good Luck.