The future is not always unwritten ..............
Feb 05, 2022
You can view yesterday's newsletter in full, it was a quiet Friday and only two games to preview.
The Championship game did go "over", the Bundesliga fixture was a "push" officially, but is the more interesting of the two, as the notes highlight what we are trying to do and that is to pick up on good situations whether that be pre match or "in play" and if you take a look, we were very keen on Bochum as a second half team and they "won" the second period 1-0, not allowing Hertha a single BC, or attempt ITB !
Also, we are always writing with the future and not just the present in mind and the second half comments on Hertha and Bochum should have value going forward, as might the notes on Birmingham City.
Friday February 4th
Next newsletter will be sent @ 09:00 UK time on Saturday.
Championship: Birmingham City- Sheffield United
United made the newsletter last weekend when they were very easy winners at Peterborough and my notes included ..........
What a weird season for Sheffield United ! After relegation they were not the first team to struggle with the transition back to the second tier and they started slowly results wise and head coach Slavisa Jokanovic, who was only appointed in the summer, was gone before the end of November. It is "weird" because the Blades have played pretty well all season and are actually 3rd for xP despite having game(s) in hand on everybody. I spoke about some of this ahead of a New Year's Day game with Middlesbrough which was eventually postponed ............
Boro boss Chris Wilder loves United, it is the team he has supported since a boy, he was born less than 20km from the ground and the Blades were his first professional club and no man on earth was prouder than when he led them from League 1 to the Premier League in just three seasons and then to a 9th place finish in the top flight in his fourth campaign, before leaving by "mutual consent" in the 5th, last March. He was out of work for eight months before taking the job at the Riverside early in November and it does feel like that was perfect timing for both parties. Boro are a big, well established second tier club who have finished top 7 in four of their last six seasons at this level (one promotion) and who are coming on strong since the change in head coach and they have picked up 16 points from their last six starts and Wilder has got them well organised at the back, as all his teams are, with four clean sheets in five outings. Wilder himself is very hungry to erase memories of that one poor season from what is a very good CV.
United did not pick up after Wilder's dismissal and were relegated and started slowly this season, winning just one of their first seven starts, but they are now up to 12th, 7 points off the playoff spots and the 5th placed visitors, but with games in hand on almost everyone. They have won their last four (including away to promotion favourites Fulham in their most recent start) the first of those being the last game that Wilder's replacement, Slavisa Jokanovic, was in charge for, former interim boss Paul Heckingbottom ( the most Yorkshire surname around !) has taken charge on a very long term contract. He is a well respected coach, but we are not sure yet if he is a "manager" and four and a half years feels an incredibly long term deal for someone who lasted only four months at Leeds United and less than nine months at Hibernian, in his last two tries at the top job. He worked under Wilder, in charge of the U23 team, for his first eight months with the Blades, so the two bosses will know each other well. However, no one knows this group of United players , or how the club is run, better than CW who will also get a hero's welcome from the home supporters, who consider him "one of their own", with most fans against his "sacking".
The Blades are still 12th, 9 points adrift of top 6, but with 2-3 games in hand on most, so very much in the mix, especially as, after today, they will have played 4 more games away than at home, so a good opportunity for them to make up ground on the teams above them, but it has to always be three points from fixtures like this if they are going to make the postseason.
The scoreline said they won 2-0, but the ITB numbers of 15-1 give a better reflection of their superiority and their travelling support of 2,900, who believe that a big promotion push is on the cards, went home happy.
Now they travel to Birmingham City who also made the notes recently when they hosted that same Peterborough side ...........
City have taken 5 points from their last six games and faced opposition with an average league placing of 13.4.
Blues have improved xG numbers through their last four starts and have been very unlucky (understatement) to concede 10 goals from an xGA of 4.0 and they were a net + 1.0 xGD and +1 BC, but -4 actual goals and played two top 4 teams.
Posh have taken 4 points from their last six games and faced opposition with an average league placing of 14.8.
They have conceded 10 goals in their last three starts and put up some appalling numbers, they were a net -8.1 xGD and 1-16 for BC's and 7-49 ITB and off the top of my head , I cannot recall three worse set of numbers in the Championship since that awful Blackpool team of 2014-15 ( conceded 91 goals with a -55 goal difference).
The City- Posh game definitely makes the two struggling teams criteria and the visitors did score three in the reverse fixture and the home side have conceded three to fellow strugglers Barnsley (2-1)and Cardiff (2-2)in recent home games.
Posh led for a long while but it ended 2-2 and the Blues also drew by the same scoreline away to Derby last Sunday in their only subsequent outing. In the first they trailed 2-0 with a quarter of the game remaining and in the second led by 2 with just three minutes of regulation time left to play ! City have been a bit unlucky in recent starts and have scored twice in four straight games, but conceded 13 through that sequence and 23 in their last nine which is as bad as it gets and makes winning hard. United should win and will be journeying down the M1 with only three points in mind, they signed CB Charlie Goode on loan from Brentford this week and head coach Paul Heckingbottom said he felt that was the final piece in the defensive jigsaw. Oddly enough he has played more for the Bees this season in the EPL than he did in all of 20-21 in the Championship and the top flight experience will serve him well, but the second tier feels more his level.
Birmingham were busy in the window and got an immediate return from CM Juninho Bacuna (Rangers) and striker Lyle Taylor (Forest) in the draw at derby, with the latter scoring on his debut, two other January signings in Teden Mengi (Man United) and Onel Hernandez (Norwich) also played and this is a much changed City starting 11. It is also noteworthy that Scott Hogan is in form and has 10 goals this season and seems to have refound his mojo, the former Brentford frontman was the best pure goalscorer ( ahead of Watkins/Toney/Maupay/Gray) I have seen in a Bees shirt in recent times and he and Taylor, could be a prolific pairing.
I think we will be looking to bet the Blues in the coming weeks, once all the signings have gelled and probably away from St Andrews, I have spoken of their issues here several times and since November 2019, across 53 league starts, they are 12-14-27 as hosts giving up an average of 1.75 goals pg and with a 51% loss rate. They do pose more offensive threat now, so goals are very likely too, United should edge this, but higher odds on the "over" and on this occasion, I think that offers the best value.
2 units "over" 2.5 goals 2.18 asian line.
Bundesliga: Hertha Berlin- Bochum
Bochum featured in the notes regularly at the end of 2021 and most recently last month when they beat Wolfsburg 1-0 (reproduced at the foot of this email. They have subsequently lost 1-0 away to Mainz, gaining revenge with a 3-1 win over the same opponent in the DFB Pokal and drawing 2-2 with Koln last time out. Across those four games they have averaged 3 BC's per start (12-8) and finished on the front foot being a combined 10-3 for BC's after the break ( 7-0 in the last two and also 12-2 for ITB attempts). That is of interest with Hertha ranked #16 for second half form (just 4 wins) with only Furth conceding more goals, the home side are also winless in four and have conceded 21 in their last ten starts . This feels like a good match up for Bochum and revenge for a strange 3-1 loss in the reverse fixture is on the cards, I say strange as Bochum were in season worse form at the time, but dominated and conceded three from just 2 attempts ITB, one BC and an xGD of +0.75 .
Bochum are interesting "in running" given those second half stats for both teams and I will be looking at those markets as long as 22 players are still on the pitch, but officially I will suggest...........
1.75 units Bochum level ball 2.37 asian line.
Good Luck !
Bundesliga: Bochum- Wolfsburg (written January 9th)
Wolfsburg can win this game, of course they can,but their odds make absolutely no sense and my hands are tied and I have to bet Bochum. I have spoken often about the issues at Wolfsburg this season, head coach Mark Van Bommel was a terrible appointment and not much has changed since he was replaced. I suppose the break came at a good time, as they had lost five in a row, conceding 2+ goals in their last six, two of which came versus teams below Bochum in the table. The hosts are a team we highlighted as improving and ahead of a home game with Dortmund last month I wrote .........
Bochum lived up to those improved and improving numbers and did themselves and us a favour at Augsburg last weekend, where they won 3-2 ...........
When I updated the Bundesliga numbers during the November international break I also noted.........
Bochum look very interesting, they opened 1-1-5 and struggled with their return to the Bundesliga after 11 years in the second tier, but they were promoted with a decent number of points (67) which has tended to be a good indication of ability and results and performances have improved big time. They have won 3/4 with three clean sheets and are +9 for BC's (#2) and +3 for ITB (8th) , they were a net -2.86 and -4.86 per game respectively prior to that and it is a massive turnaround.
They have played twice subsequently , a 1-0 loss at 3rd placed Leverkusen ............
We have already discussed both teams and across the last four games, Bochum are a net + 14 BC's over Leverkusen and a net + 25 for ITB attempts and that makes it very difficult not to be drawn to the huge odds (8.40 +) about the "upset" away win.Of course, we know that BL are the bigger club and better team, just not at the moment !
They then beat in-form Freiburg 2-1, a bit odd as they were unfortunate at Leverkusen and rode their luck in the win !
However, across the last six games they are a net +6 for BC's and +20 ITB over Augsburg , despite the hosts putting up two big home wins, a 4-1 defeat of Stuttgart and 2-1 famous victory over Bayern. Hard to know what to make of those, but Augsburg scored half of their goals for this season across those 180 minutes and I am not buying into them having turned a corner just yet. They are 16th currently, xP places them in the same position and they were a real 13th and "expected " 15th last season and also finished 15th in the two seasons prior to that. They have collected just 33 points from 35 starts in the last 12 months and whichever way you look at it, they are a bottom 4-6 team at best and this is a game Bochum have to look to take something from if they are themselves to survive.
They created and gave up six BC's, but had only conceded one prior to being 3-0 up and then opting to sit back. They will be asked more questions from the off today, but Dortmund are eliminated from the Champions League and are ranked circa 3rd /4th for xG and of a similar level to all those in the top 10 (aside from Bayern) who are separated by just three expected points. They are also hit and miss on the road (7-1-7 in their last 15 away starts) and that mirrors Bochum's all or nothing record of 6-1-7 (but they are 4-1-1) at home. The hosts have already beaten Freiburg, Mainz and Hoffenheim, teams with similar xP's to Dortmund, superior in one case and if there is value here, it is surely with Bochum at huge odds.
They drew that 1-1 after leading for 45 minutes, in addition to that draw, Bochum have beaten three top 7 teams as hosts and are now priced at 3.50 + to beat a 14th placed Wolfsburg in freefall, as I said it makes no sense ! Both teams have lengthy injury/suspension/COVID lists and that is the unknown factor ( just who might be infected, or affected by the situation) , but it is not enough to put me off these big odds.
2 units Bochum level 2.53 asian line.
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