Second only to any Brentford away game I am lucky enough to get to, the US Masters is just about my single favourite event of the sporting calendar.

It is the only major played at the same course every year, Augusta National is at least as famous as the players who have tasted victory here and the holes are as familiar to television viewers as any in world golf. It is a real horses for courses venue and whilst it takes a while to learn, once a golfer has played well here once, he tends to do so again. However, there is a lot of pressure and demands on the defending champion and in the last 50 years, only two players have won back to back titles, Tiger Woods in 2002 and he was not playing the same game as anyone else at that time and Nick Faldo in 1990. Jordan Spieth went mighty close in 2016, but ultimately came up short and it is a very tall order for anyone to win twice, let alone do so in consecutive years and only Woods ,Bubba Watson and Phil Mickelson have won a second or third (or more in the case of Tiger) since 2005 . Short priced golfers, who are under a hugely increased spotlight here, also do not win that often, at least in recent years and 12 of the last 17 winners have started at odds of  20-1 +.  For Rory, the Masters has become something of an obsession, sometimes you can want something too much and I do not think that is either healthy ,or conducive to getting the job done .
 

We have a limited field of 89 players, 11 of whom have lifetime exemption as previous winners, but most of them would not be strong enough nowadays to play four competitive rounds at this level, or probably even two in some cases. There are also five amateur golfers, only one amateur has even made the cut in the last three years and none has finished top 15 since 2005, or top ten since 1962! Add in 16 debutants (20 if we include the amateurs) who traditionally struggle (no rookie has won since 1979) and most spend the first couple of appearances at Augusta just getting used to surroundings, which seem, almost from another era and a course that they have grown up watching and dreaming about playing. However, I will add that this is the most talented bunch of debutants ever, so never say never, but they have history firmly against them. Anyway, the list of potential winners is far shorter than for any other major and most golf events and that offers good value and opportunities.

 

In terms of an identikit winner, we are looking for someone under 40yo , who is world ranked top 30, has a top 10 at Augusta to his name and has played here 3+ times, hits it a long way, can take advantage of the Par 5's which are real scoring opportunities and who has already finished top 3 in a tournament this season, priced somewhere north of 20-1 ! The player pulling on the green jacket on Sunday doesn't have to fit that profile, but he is more likely to than not.  

 

Stroke Averages at Augusta National

1. Jon Rahm – 70.5, 28 rounds
2. Will Zalatoris – 70.5, 8 rounds
3. Jordan Spieth – 70.6, 38 rounds
4. Scottie Scheffler – 70.7, 16 rounds
5. Sahith Theegala – 70.8, 4 rounds
6. Tiger Woods – 71.1, 96 rounds
7. Tony Finau - 71.3, 24 rounds
8. Phil Mickelson – 71.3, 114 rounds
9. Xander Schauffele – 71.3, 22 rounds
10. Nick Taylor – 71.3, 4 rounds
11. Collin Morikawa – 71.4, 16 rounds
12. Rickie Fowler – 71.5, 38 rounds
13. Tom Kim – 71.5, 4 rounds
14. Brooks Koepka – 71.5, 28 rounds
15. Hideki Matsuyama – 71.5, 46 rounds
16. Rory McIlroy – 71.5, 54 rounds
17. Dustin Johnson - 71.5, 48 rounds
18. Sungjae Im – 71.6, 14 rounds
19. Cameron Smith – 71.6, 28 rounds
20. Viktor Hovland - 71.7, 16 rounds
21. Justin Thomas – 71.7, 30 rounds
22. Justin Rose – 71.8, 68 rounds
23. Corey Conners – 71.9, 20 rounds
24. Jason Day – 71.9, 41 rounds
25. Patrick Reed – 71.9, 36 rounds
26. Ryan Fox – 72.0, 4 rounds
27. Thorbjorn Olesen – 72.0, 12 rounds
28. Russell Henley – 72.1, 26 rounds
29. Matthew Fitzpatrick – 72.2, 34 rounds
30. Tommy Fleetwood - 72.2, 26 rounds
31. Fred Couples - 72.3, 138 rounds
32. Bubba Watson – 72.3, 56 rounds
33. Patrick Cantlay - 72.4, 24 rounds
34. Si Woo Kim – 72.4, 26 rounds
35. Charl Schwartzel – 72.5, 48 rounds
36. Adam Hadwin – 72.6, 10 rounds
37. Shane Lowry – 72.6, 26 rounds
38. Adam Scott – 72.6, 84 rounds
39. Chris Kirk – 72.7, 14 rounds
40. Cameron Young – 72.7, 6 rounds
41. Danny Willett – 72.9, 26 rounds
42. Sam Burns - 73.0, 6 rounds
43. Bryson DeChambeau - 73.0, 24 rounds
44. Sergio Garcia - 73.0, 78 rounds
45. Keegan Bradley - 73.1, 26 rounds
46. Jose Maria Olazabal – 73.1, 106 rounds
47. Taylor Moore – 73.2, 4 rounds
48. Joaquin Niemann – 73.2, 14 rounds
49. Brian Harman – 73.3, 14 rounds
50. Min Woo Lee – 73.3, 6 rounds
51. Zach Johnson - 73.3, 60 rounds
52. J.T. Poston – 73.3, 6 rounds
53. Vijay Singh – 73.3, 97 rounds
54. Gary Woodland – 73.4, 33 rounds
55. Sepp Straka – 73.5, 8 rounds
56. Harris English - 73.6, 14 rounds
57. Mike Weir – 73.8, 72 rounds
58. Tyrrell Hatton – 73.9, 24 rounds
59. Emiliano Grillo – 74.0, 12 rounds
60. Max Homa – 74.0, 12 rounds
61. Camilo Villegas – 74.0, 18 rounds
62. Lucas Glover – 74.1, 28 rounds
63. Luke List – 74.3, 6 rounds
64. Byeong Hun An - 74.4, 10 rounds
65. Adrian Meronk – 74.5, 2 rounds
66. Cameron Davis – 75.0, 4 rounds
67. Stewart Hagestad – 75.7, 6 rounds
68. Kurt Kitayama – 76.0, 2 rounds
69. Erik Van Rooyen – 76.0, 3 rounds
70. Ludvig Aberg – DEBUT
71. Akshay Bhatia - DEBUT
72. Wyndham Clark – DEBUT
73. Eric Cole – DEBUT
74. Santiago de la Fuente – DEBUT
75. Nick Dunlap – DEBUT
76. Austin Eckroat - DEBUT
77. Ryo Hisatsune – DEBUT
78. Lee Hodges – DEBUT
79. Nicolai Hojgaard – DEBUT
80. Stephan Jaeger - DEBUT
81. Jake Knapp – DEBUT
82. Christo Lamprecht – DEBUT
83. Peter Malnati - DEBUT
84. Denny McCarthy - DEBUT
85. Grayson Murray – DEBUT
86. Matthieu Pavon – DEBUT
87. Adam Schenk – DEBUT
88. Neal Shipley – DEBUT
89. Jasper Stubbs - DEBUT

I want players on that list in blue type, a golfer who ticks most of the identikit boxes and who has played Augusta well on multiple visits. I have eliminated the others as they have not played enough, are too "old" (apologies!) , do not have that high 2023 finish to their name, or an Augusta top 10,  are defending champion, hopelessly out of form/returning from injury ,or priced too low. I have also "eliminated" the LIV golfers who will be teeing up alongside PGA professionals for the first time this year, it feels like they are under increased pressure ,in an unfavourable spotlight and having played too little tournament golf .

 

Now I have to be a little brutal and am going to have to cut those ................ the rest of these notes were sent to subscribers Wednesday 10/04 @ 10:00 .

 

 

Good luck!