Good start, now the hard work begins .............
Jun 04, 2021
We have already outlined what a big month June is for us and South American football will play a huge part, with domestic games in Brazil, World Cup qualifiers and the Copa America and it is great to get off to a flier last night going 3/3 on the CONMEBOL qualifiers, with Chile drawing 1-1, Bolivia winning 3-1 and Colombia 3-0 ...............
CONMEBOL World Cup qualifiers:
Bolivia- Venezuela
Argentina- Chile
Early in qualification I previewed Bolivia and Argentina, speaking about the huge advantage the hosts have here in La Paz, but their poor form and it not being a vintage Argentine group.............
Messi aside, it is hard to see this as a classic Argentine squad , Lo Celso , Dybala and Aguero are missing too and defensively they look a little suspect. They did open with a 1-0 win over Ecuador which takes some of the pressure off and they will be pleased just to see the back of this round of fixtures. Bolivia on paper look poor, they are an almost exclusively home based squad with few names that any of us have heard of and they were hammered 5-0 by Brazil last weekend. But now they are at home with the 12th man behind them, that usually refers to a passionate home crowd, but with Bolivia it is the altitude in La Paz, we are not talking about the measly 600m in Madrid where the tennis ball zips through the air, or even the 1,574m of Commerce City where the Colorado Rapids play, but the 3,640m of La Paz, which is truly high altitude in sports terms.
FIFA has (three times I think) banned international matches at above 2,500m but later rescinded the decision each time. During the last World Cup qualifying process Bolivia finished 9th, but only lost twice at home, once to a team "used" to altitude, they beat five teams here including Argentina (2-0) , also keeping Peru , Chile, Paraguay and Brazil scoreless. Arguably Argentina handled the altitude the worst of all and they visibly faded within 30 minutes of kick off.
There are a couple of schools of thought about the best way to prepare, one is to spend several days at high altitude before you play a game, the other is to fly in as late as possible and try to "fool" the body into ignoring it ! Science would suggest that neither works, the first might be fine for tourists, not sportsmen and the Gatorade Sports Science Institute concluded that not even 13 days was enough for elite athletes. During the 2010 World Cup in South Africa which long term readers might recall we did a lot of work on altitude and there we are only talking up to 1,750m , players were running considerably less at even up to 1,200m and high intensity work (sprinting) was reduced by approximately 150% at 1,600m, compared to sea level. The total distance covered per min and high velocity running per min is hugely reduced at high altitude. It can affect people differently, some are violently sick for days , but it is a fair assumption that with finely tuned athletes where even a 2-3 % drop in productivity can be big and the difference between a good professional and a "star", it is a game changer and a great leveller . I will leave the final word with Neymar Jr, he posted photos of Brazilian team mates with oxygen masks before their 2018 World Cup qualifying game in the Estadio Hernando Siles and commented that it is "inhumane" to play under such conditions.
We are now 7 months on from the last CONMEBOL qualifier and this is just Round 5. Argentina won 2-1 that day and have 10 points on board, but all games have been close and it is rare that they put anyone to the sword. But those three wins and a draw leave them in a strong position to progress which is all that really matters. Chile have just 4 points and their need for a result today is greater, they have quite an odd squad with a lot of youngsters with limited experience, along with 10 players in their 33rd year or older and six with circa 100 international caps. The two nations know each other well, they have met 8 times in the last decade and none of those have been decided by more than a single goal and with these two meeting again next week in their Copa America opener, I think we can expect another very close contest.
Bolivia have just a single point on board and will be pretty much out of things unless they win today, their last 5 games have seen both teams score and their last 10 starts have averaged 3.9 goals, which is huge in international terms. They have played two friendly games since the last qualifier, which gives them more recent playing experience than anyone else playing this round.
Venezuela arrive with 3 points and have not played since November. They are a baseball playing nation where football takes second place and has traditionally been of little importance, but in recent years it has grown and we have seen some improvement from the national team. They have bossed Bolivia in recent meetings winning the last three and scoring 12 goals and the last six h2h games have all produced 4+ goals at a 4.83 average. The hosts will throw the kitchen sink at Venezuela and I have to see another high scoring encounter.
2 units Chile +0.75 ball 2.23 asian line.
2 units "over" 2.75 goals Bolivia - Venezuela 2.47 asian line.
Peru - Colombia
One team probably pleased not to have played since November is Colombia, as it gave them an opportunity to rethink and maybe get back to basics after two beyond awful results, they went into Matchday 3 pleased with four points and five goals and at the time I wrote .........
Colombia made it to the knockout stage of the last World Cup and were unbeaten in the 2019 Copa America ( losing on penalties), they have pretty much the perfect international aged squad with 21 players between 23 and 29 years of age. They look, not just full of goals but with players like James Rodriguez, Luis Muriel, Duvan Zapata at the very top of their game right now. This is a talent laden squad all over the pitch , 8 of the 10 outfield players for the very easy 3-0 win over Venezuela at the weekend are from big five European league teams and good ones at that and, three up the break, many were taken off and rested with today in mind. Brazil aside, I am not sure that anyone is stronger in South America right now.
But it all went wrong in four beyond awful days losing 3-0 at home to Uruguay and then 6-1 at Ecuador and a major inquest will have taken place, they changed head coach, which was almost a given and former boss Reinaldo Rueda who have been in charge of all five ages of the national team was reappointed. He has also been in charge of Ecuador and Chile and knows SA international football as well as anyone.
Peru have just one point on board and are missing several key players today, Colombia are without a couple too, but have a far deeper squad, with more depth. The visitors have also bossed the series and lost just once in 20 h2h meetings and not in 13 outside of Colombia, keeping clean sheets in 9 of those.
Colombia to get back on track.
2 units Colombia -0.5 ball 2.14 asian line.
Good luck !
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