I guess that's why they call it the Blues.............
Apr 04, 2024
Premier League: Chelsea -Manchester United
Both teams made the notes last weekend. Chelsea in a 2-2 home draw against 10 man Burnley, where they created 33 attempts, 22 ITB and 6 BC's but were misfiring in front of goal (once again). United in a 1-1 draw at Brentford and I touched upon that yesterday .....
Only two teams in the last seven years have recorded 70+ touches inside the opposition's box. Manchester City had 79 in one game in 2019-20, the Bees had 85 ! Along with 31 attempts on goal (24 ITB)!
The entire United team managed just 16 touches in the Brentford box. For the Bees, Ivan Toney had 15, Kristoffer Ajer 11 and Zanka 9 (both are central defenders!) and Wissa 9 (he was substituted after 71 minutes!).
Brentford also hit the woodwork FOUR times!
Brentford hardly franked the formline in a 0-0 snooze fest with Brighton last night.
United were really very poor and head coach Erik Ten Hag looks just lost and even out of his depth at times. Quite how they are 6th in the table is a mystery, but they are as close to Fulham in 13th as they are to Tottenham in 5th and xP rates Chelsea 11 points superior and United on par with Crystal Palace. XGD suggests they should have conceded an additional 14 goals.
It isn't just that they have been dodging bullets in recent starts, but an artillery bombardment and it is going from bad to worse, their last six EPL starts.....
@ Villa United faced 23 attempts, 18 ITB
@ Luton 22 attempts, 13 ITB
home Fulham 17 attempts, 11 ITB
@ Man City 27 attempts, 17 ITB
home Everton 23 attempts, 16 ITB
@ Brentford 31 attempts, 24 ITB
Those are awful numbers, their midfield is terrible, the Brentford back up DM who cost £500k was all over the three of them like a rash and Chelsea are going to get plenty of chances today, maybe a LOT and the only question is whether or not this time they can convert.
Chelsea, for all their woes, have scored 23 goals in their last 10 starts (all comps), with 2+ in eight and also in eight straight games against non top 3 opposition, given how many chances United are allowing and that they have an increasingly banged up defence, it feels like good value with Chelsea goals and I prefer to scale down stakes a little and go with the bigger line................
1.75 units Chelsea to score "over" 2.5 goals 2.60 asian line.
Good luck!
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