I'm a Yankee Doodle Dandy ..............
Oct 08, 2020
After landing a 100-1 suggestion the Saturday before last (scroll down several posts) we have continued in similar vein, we were the width of a goal post away from a 33-1 winner over the weekend and yesterday's MLS previews provided four winners and two correct score suggestions which all won ! Toronto winning 1-0, Union 3-0 and NYCFC 4-1.........................
MLS:
Philadelphia Union - FC Cincinnati
FCC do not score enough goals, just 8 all season and only 9 in 19 MLS starts, which is not going to win you too many games ! They have played back to back road games losing by a combined 6-0 and arguably face strong opposition today in Union adn, in a third away start. Union have been big favourites of ours this season, but we have not discussed them since a 4-1 win in Montreal 17 days ago .........
Philadelphia Union have not played since the 12th when they beat New England and have been on fire almost all season, last week I wrote about how much I liked this Union team and how they performed in a 3-0 win in NY...........
NYRB actually started brightly, but did not have an attempt on target and are obviously low on confidence and a lot of work needs to be done to sort them out. Union were full of energy and self belief and when they were in possession, seemed to move the ball twice as fast as Red Bull and I think the penny is starting to drop about how good they are and if Jim Curtin (see above) gives them free reign, lots of teams are going to suffer a heavy beating this season. Bedoya, Aaronson Monteiro, Martinez and Przybylko ( that's easy for you to say !) look very strong and fluid options. They are a little banged up currently, nothing new, but it just means they are going to get stronger once everyone is back and most teams are dealing with injuries at present and those five named players are all available. Union have won the last five h2h meetings in Philly by a combined 15-1 (!) won the MIB match up and have not lost home or away to Revolution since July 2017.
Earlier in this campaign I spoke about their season on season improvement, an area they were likely to improve in and already had to a degree and, some off season additions.......
However, it is Union I want to focus on today. They are a club on the up, were 6th in the East in 2018 with 50 points (franchise record) and up 8 from the previous campaign. Last season they were third with 55 points and only three teams in the whole of the MLS won more games, young head coach Jim Curtin now in his sixth year in charge was rewarded with another contract extension to cover this season and next . They made the MIB semi finals losing 2-1 to eventual champions Portland Timbers, but considered themselves unlucky, they had more attempts on target, missed a penalty and had a goal disallowed by VAR for offside by the narrowest of margins, so they probably have a case.
Talented goalkeeper Andre Blake had a "terrible" 2019 by his own high standards which makes those 55 points even more eye catching. Blake gave up 10.06 more goals than expected last year , that single season mark ranks 2nd worst ever and the worst by a keeper with at least 2000 minutes in a season on a per minute rate. For goalkeepers with 25 or more starts, Blake faced the lowest number of shots of anyone in Major League Soccer, tied with LAFC’s Tyler Miller. Of those 103 shots faced, Miller allowed 13 fewer goals.Just horrible numbers and a season Blake will want to forget and he might already have done so, as he was voted Union player of the MIB tournament by Union fans and it was not even close. There are definite possibilities for Union to improve again given how few attempts they actually gave up in 2019 and that we can expect a (much) bigger contribution from between the sticks.
Philly also made some changes in the off season to enable them to press harder (which almost always works in MLS) and the stuttering start to the campaign will enable them to get more out of veteran SS/RM Ilsinho and their record is incredible when the 34 yo can play 45 minutes or so.
Union are still dealing with a few injuries, but are better off today than for some time and have had eight days to prepare solely for this fixture, Sergio Santos, Ilsinho, Warren Creavalle and Aurelien Collin are all training fully and Matej Oravec is back with the team after a 10-day quarantine required after he spent time with the Slovakia U21 team.I want to stick with Philly.
Following that big win they subsequently played away to FCC where they drew 0-0 (they had injuries and were "tired"), then hosted and beat Inter Miami 3-0, before suffering just their third defeat of the season, 2-1 to a very strong Toronto FC last weekend. They should have got something from that, probably all three points having led and with chances to extend that advantage before two individual errors cost them goals. They matched up well with TFC and looked to be in control restricting the home side to fairly one dimensional play and crosses from wide, winning the midfield battle, which few will do against the talented Canadian team.
After the last five games in which they have dropped points, Union have kept a clean sheet next time out, winning four, the last two by the same 3-0 scoreline, the hat-trick is on the cards ................3-0 !
2.25 units Philadelphia Union -1 ball 2.29 asian line/Sportmarket.
New England Revolution- Toronto FC
Toronto are a very good team, they beat another at the weekend in Philadelphia Union ( see above) they needed a little luck, but that was overdue which seems an odd thing to say about a team who have lost just 3 times in 27 regular season games . However, two of those came back to back to Montreal and Vancouver, two inferior teams in games they totally bossed and which we discussed, along with the elite level that TFC had been playing at in build up and those notes are reproduced at the foot of this newsletter. They won that game 2-1 and are 4-1-0 since I wrote that preview. They are going toe to toe for the lead in the East with Columbus Crew, with the two teams tied on 31 points and with Crew having an "easy" fixture today (on paper) any points dropped by TFC are likely to see them fall behind in the "title race".
Revolution are a team we have been siding with and done well with, but their lack of goals in home games (just 5) means they have won just 1/7 as host, albeit with 5 draws and that is not good enough and they are unhappy when they have to make the running and the onus on them to take the game to opponents. They have faced elite Eastern opposition ( Union, TFC, NYCFC) in six games this season and scored just a single goal and I do not know if that is down to bad luck, an inferiority complex, or lack of ability, but it is not good enough and I take TFC to keep Crew honest.
2.5 units Toronto FC -0.25 ball 2.32 asian line/Sportmarket.
New York City FC- DC United
CB Frederic Brillant (great name for a sportsman) is suspended for DC United, they are not very good even with him in the line up, but did lose 4-1 to Union in the only game he has missed in two years ! They have kindly lost at home to both NYRB and Revolution for us and ahead of the latter my notes included ..........
I opposed DCU for their home game with NYRB earlier this month when my notes read ..............
Now a shock, I am going to side with NYRB today, they created enough chances to have got something from the recent reverse fixture when Chris (delusional) Armas was in charge and there was a return to the old style last week at least for the first 30 minutes and now that the new coaches have had some time and a free midweek with the players we can expect further improvement and they did create two BC's last week, even if neither hit the target. DCU remain injury hit, they did follow up the win in the Big Apple with a home 0-0 draw with NYCFC next time out, but looked what they are (very limited !) and "lost" attempts 19-0 (!) so everything was to nil, ITB , on target etc he said for his stating the obvious comment of the day ! They had 30% possession, not sure how, it looked more like 10%, I know how long you have the ball matters little nowadays, but still ! NYRB have dominated this series and the loss last time out was just their second in 17 MLS meetings
They lost that 2-0, but actually played ok and their numbers were quite good, but in stark contrast to almost every other game , subsequently, they were fortunate to draw 2-2 with Toronto FC, lost 1-0 at Nashville last time out (just one attempt on target) still have injuries and now a suspension to CM Russel Canouse to deal with .
City have won their last two starts scoring seven goals and ahead of the last, a trip to Inter Miami I wrote ..............
Inter have conceded 7 in their last two starts , losing 4-1 at home NYRB (which will motivate City to follow suit) and 3-0 away to a beat up and short handed, but good, Philadelphia Union, last weekend. They gave up 7 BC's to Red Bulls which is a crazy number at home in MLS play. They will be up against it today facing what is, in my opinion, the best defense in the MLS and a City team in good form, they were unbeaten in six before a wildly unlucky loss to a very good Toronto side and then took it out on Cincinnati last week beating them 4-0. They were without star playmaker Maxi Moralez who will be sidelined for up to six weeks, but perhaps more importantly, had full backs Ronald Matarrita and Anton Tinnerholm, who are SO important to how they play, back in tandem and holding midfielder James Sands returned from a recent ban. Alexandru Mitrita picked up the Moralez slack with a 5 star performance, which included two goals and five key passes and with Alexander Ring back on the left (not his favourite position, but it is working !) it felt right and looked very good . They just don't look like conceding and are far more dangerous offensively suddenly and I expect them to not fly home empty handed .
They did concede, twice, but won 3-2 with Mitrita scoring twice and Ring (see both above) providing all three assists, he doesn't "get it" if you prefer not to play on the left, don't set up three goals on the road !
NYCFC are back at Yankee Stadium tonight where the unique dimensions of the baseball field suit them perfectly and where they have been so dominant, something we have discussed multiple times over manyyears, but where they rarely keep a clean sheet. In their last 17 home starts in NY in regular season play they are 14-1-2, they have conceded in 13, including in 10 wins. 4-1 feels about right, the scoreline by which DCU lost to Union without their Brilliant defender !
2 units New York City FC -1.5 ball 2.11 asian line/Sportmarket.
1.75 units NYCFC to win and both teams to score 3.10 Pinnacle.........2.80 + is "good".
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