Italy: Serie A ................

football betting tips -

 

Pd = games played.

Pts = points

GD = goal difference

XP=  expected points

XGD = expected goal difference

ITB = inside the box net numbers for the season

L8 = inside the box totals (created-conceded) for the last 8 games.

The first three columns are "real" in terms of points won and goals scored/conceded, but league tables do sometimes "lie" even after 26 games and the last four columns are more interesting, as they show performance levels and who has been over/underachieving in front of goal at both ends of the pitch.

The numbers which are shown in blue type indicate teams who are playing above the level of their current league position or in relation to their "real" numbers, those in red for teams who have outperformed their stats and we would normally expect results for the former to improve and the latter to fall away. Double or treble (or more) blue or red numbers are especially noteworthy.


I will finish with my normal observation that : I like expected goals/points, but IMO, it is easier to see the direction teams are heading with ITB if only because they are more numerically and the swings quicker to pick up on. But I also think they highlight the flow of games and the superiority, or failings of teams, better.

 
The table was correct as of Friday, the eight teams on 25 games have subsequently played with those games going to "form" in terms of xP and ITB. The numbers above are correct for all teams playing today.

All eight teams who played over the weekend scored, producing three home wins and a draw.

We have two full rounds in Serie A this week, I previewed all three games taking place today for subscribers along with one from La Liga.

Stay safe and good luck !

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